Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 3:15 PM – 5:15 PM
- Chair: Christopher Polk, London School of Economics and Political Science
Real Anomalies: Are Financial Markets a Sideshow?
AbstractWe examine the importance of financial market imperfections such as asset pricing
anomalies on the real economy. In order to assess distortions quantitatively, we
estimate the joint dynamic distribution of firm characteristics that have been linked
to financial imperfections and other firm variables, such as investment, capital, and
value added. Based on a model that matches these joint dynamics we then evaluate
the counterfactual dynamic distribution of these quantities absent financial market
imperfections and find that they can cause large and persistent deviations. This
implies that financial intermediaries that can reduce and/or eliminate such market
imperfections can provide large value added to the economy. We show that both
the persistence and the amount of mispriced capital are a major determinant of
the real economic consequences. Our framework can be extended to address the
welfare costs of incomplete risk sharing and other financial market imperfections.
AbstractA strong increase in a firm’s market price over the past year is generally associated with higher future abnormal returns, consistent with the momentum anomaly. However, for a small set of firms for which arbitrage is limited, high past returns forecast strongly negative future abnormal returns. We propose a dynamic model in which increased unwarranted optimism by a set of speculators leads to dynamic mispricing effects. Consistent with this model, we show a set of firms with high past returns, low institutional ownership, and high recent changes in short interest earns persistently low returns going forward. A “Betting Against Winners” strategy that goes short the overpriced winners and long other winners generates a Sharpe-ratio of 1.08; its returns cannot be explained by commonly used risk-factors.
Are Stocks Real Assets? Sticky Discount Rates in Stock Markets
AbstractLocal stock markets adjust sluggishly to changes in local inflation. When the local rate of
inflation increases, local investors subsequently earn lower real returns on local stocks, but
not on local bonds or foreign stocks, suggesting that local stock market investors use sticky
long-run nominal discount rates that are too low when inflation increases because they are
slow to update the inflation expectations in discount rates. Small amounts of stickiness in
inflation expectations suffice to match the real stock return predictability induced by inflation
in the data. We also consider other explanations, such as nominal cash flow extrapolation.
- G1 - Asset Markets and Pricing