Isis and Conflict
Sunday, Jan. 8, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM
Swissotel Chicago, St Gallen 3
- Chair: Carlos Seiglie, Rutgers University-Newark
The Strategy and Technology of Conflict
AbstractWe consider a simple bargaining model where conflict occurs if the
players cannot agree to share a resource peacefully. Each player can
decide to challenge the status quo. A challenge is a strategic move:
the challenger commits to start a conflict unless the opponent concedes
some part of his endowment. Uncertainty about the opponent's cost of
making a challenge generates a unique equilibrium. Increasing the cost
of conflict makes the players more hawkish, because challenges become
more profitable: the opponent will make larger concessions to avoid a
conflict. Actions are strategic substitutes if the cost of conflict is large
or if there is a small first-mover advantage, and strategic complements
if the cost of conflict is small and there is a large first-mover advantage.
We also study the incentives to make strategic investments ex ante
to influence the cost of conflict or the payoff to resources.
Population and Civil War
AbstractMedical and public health innovations in the 1940s quickly resulted in significant health improvements around the world. Countries with initially higher mortality from infectious disease experienced greater increases in life expectancy, population, and – over the following 40 years – social conflict. This result is robust across alternative measures of conflict and is not driven by differential trends between countries with varying baseline characteristics. At least during this time period, a faster increase in population made social conflict more likely, probably because it increased competition for scarce resources in low income countries.
How Much Oil Is Daesh Producing? Evidence from Remote Sensing
AbstractMany terrorist organizations and insurgencies such as Daesh -- also known as ISIL/ISIS-- tap oil as a revenue source. Accurately measuring oil production may assist efforts to address such threats by providing a tool for assessing their long-run economic potential, and may inform reconstruction strategies in conflict-affected areas. Estimates from news media and other agencies are inherently imprecise given the limited samples they draw on. We use satellite multi-spectral imaging and ground-truth pre-war output data to effectively construct a real-time census of oil production in Daesh-controlled areas. We estimate a production that peaked at 33,000 barrels per day in July 2014, which then fell to a 2015 average of 19,000 barrels per day.
Phanindra V. Wunnava,
Solomon W. Polachek,
University of Miami
- F5 - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy