Topics in Wage Growth, Turnover, and Risk for Forensic Economists
Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 3:15 PM – 5:15 PM
- Chair: William G. Brandt, Brandt Forensic Economics
The Impact of Oregon's Pension Legacy Costs on New Teacher Turnover
AbstractPension legacy costs can restrict the amount of resources available for current public education, potentially making it more difficult to attract and retain high-quality teachers. Oregon provides a useful case study in pension legacy costs because many school districts in the state are now reallocating General Fund expenditures to cover sizeable past pension promises. In this paper, we describe how Oregon’s past pension promises, compared with nearby Washington’s, are affecting the level of resources available to compensate new teachers. We then assess potential impacts by examining how new teacher turnover differs in districts along the Oregon–Washington border and within Oregon across school districts. We find early career quit rates in school districts on the Oregon side of the Oregon–Washington border have exceeded those on the Washington side in recent years, and overall teacher experience on the Oregon side has fallen below that on the Washington side. Further, using district-level variation within Oregon, we find early career quit propensities are positively associated with the percentage of General Fund revenues allocated to Oregon’s Public Employees Retirement System expenditures. These findings are consistent with the notion that Oregon’s pension legacy costs are negatively impacting teacher retention.
An Alternative Definition of Estimation Risk in Determining Economic Damages
AbstractThe present work proposes an ex ante measure of estimation risk, for the estimation of economic loss in personal injury and related cases, based on expected absolute deviations between future labor earnings and the amount of funds estimated to cover those earnings. The focus here on absolute deviations differs from the use of squared deviations in Gilbert (2016). With both approaches, the estimation risk-minimizing lump sum award is the discounted sum of projected future earnings, with discounting via a current bond ladder, but earnings projections take the form of conditional median values when risk is based on absolute deviations, as opposed to conditional mean values when risk is based on squared deviations. A application illustrates the methods.
- J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor
- K1 - Basic Areas of Law