Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM
Hyatt Regency Chicago, Wrigley
- Chair: Leopoldo E. Soto Arriagada, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand
AbstractPredicting the effects and incidence of climate change policy requires understanding how consumers respond to electricity prices. To date, studies of long-run electricity demand have relied on price changes that are transient or endogenous, and none have utilized experimental or quasi-experimental variation. We estimate the short-run (one-year) and long-run (three-year) price elasticity of residential electricity demand by exploiting price variation arising from a natural experiment: an Illinois policy that enabled some communities to select new electricity suppliers on behalf of their residents. Employing a flexible matching approach, we find that participating communities experienced long-lasting average price decreases in excess of 10 percent in the three years following adoption of a new supplier. Our estimates imply a short-run average price elasticity of -0.14 and a long-run elasticity of -0.29. We also present evidence that consumers reacted in anticipation of these price changes: usage began changing after the policy announcement but prior to the price change, which is consistent with a durable or habit good model of consumption. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for long-run adjustments when projecting the effects of climate change policies.
Strategic Ability and Productive Efficiency in Electricity Markets
AbstractStandard oligopoly models of short-run price competition in oligopoly settings predict that large firms can exercise market power and generate inefficiencies. However, productive inefficiency can also arise from other sources as well, such as in the presence of heterogeneity is strategic sophistication. This paper studies such a setting in the Texas electricity market, in which bidding behavior of some firms persistently and significantly deviates from Nash-equilibrium bidding. We leverage a unique dataset that contains information on bids and valuations to identify and estimate levels of strategic sophistication. We do this embedding a Cognitive Hierarchy model into a structural model of bidding behavior. (Preliminary) results show that larger firms have higher levels of strategic sophistication than smaller firms, though there is significant heterogeneity across firms. We then use the estimated distribution of types of strategic sophistication to perform counterfactual calculations about market efficiency under different scenarios that increase strategic sophistication of low-type firms either exogenously or through mergers with more sophisticated firms. We find that exogenously increasing sophistication of small firms increases productive efficiency. Furthermore, mergers that do not generate cost synergies and increase concentration may also increase efficiency.
The Long-Run Impact of Environmental Policies on Wholesale Electricity Markets: A Dynamic Competitive Analysis
AbstractWe develop a dynamic competition model of wholesale electricity markets that incorporates supply side frictions in the form of minimum generation rates and generation unit startup costs. Such frictions may have a large impact on wholesale market prices,output decisions, and generator profits. We prove an equivalence between competitive market equilibrium and the solution to a planner’s dynamic programming problem. This planner’s problem provides a computational platform for the model. We parameterize our model based on Energy Information Administration data on new power plants and demand and renewable energy data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. We use the resulting model to assess the impact of carbon prices on capacity investment, emissions, and power plant operations. We report three main findings. First,the ability of an electricity system to respond to a carbon price in the short-run with fixed generating capital is limited. However in the long-run, even a modest price on carbon can have a dramatic effect on emissions through reinvestment in capacity. Second, without subsidies, investment in renewables is limited by their intermittent production and by the dynamic constraints of conventional generators even under relatively high carbon prices. Finally, a static model that does not account for dynamic constraints for generators grossly overstates investment in renewable energy and mischaracterizes the impact of a carbon price on emissions.
Resources for the Future
Resources for the Future
University of Chicago
- L2 - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- L9 - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities