Growth Prospects for Emerging Market Economies

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 12:30 PM – 2:15 PM

Hyatt Regency Chicago, Plaza B
Hosted By: Society of Policy Modeling
  • Chair: Fred Campano, Fordham University

Emerging and Developing Economies: Entering a Rough Patch or Protracted Low Gear?

Rupa Duttagupta
,
International Monetary Fund
Futoshi Narita
,
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Growth in emerging and developing economies has recently weakened, compared to the strong growth performance observed in much of the 2000s. This paper assesses the nature of this growth slowdown by focusing on prospects for three specific growth drivers: external demand, demographic evolution, and economic convergence. Overall, the analysis suggests a slower clip of growth for these economies going forward, although growth is likely to stay stronger on average than those in advanced economies. Promoting stronger longer-term growth would require reforms that facilitate needed investment flows, and ensure demographic dividends, where expected, to materialize.

Looking Beyond Trade Integration: Pathways to Growth From Multidimensional Connectivity

David Gould
,
World Bank

Abstract

The paper takes an innovative approach to measuring multidimensional connectivity by relying on both economic relationships and network analysis. In addition to capturing how information, people, goods, and finance flows between countries, this study will identify which countries are more connected (in a multidimensional sense) and whether it matters for a country to whom it is connected to. For example, it is better (in terms growth and income distributional impact ) to be more connected to “well-connected” countries, countries that are closer to the frontier of technology, or countries that share different endowments? Is there a connectivity-stability trade-off? The focus on drivers of multidimensional connectivity deepen our understanding of how policy can support the positive impacts of specific aspects of regional and global integration to boost growth and shared prosperity.

Avoiding Pitfalls in China's Transition of Its Growth Model

Pingfan Hong
,
United Nations
Hungyi Li
,
United Nations

Abstract

The pace of GDP growth in China has shifted downward, from the average of 10 per cent as registered during the three decades of 1980-2010, to less than 7 per cent most recently. This change is to some extent desirable, if the moderated growth reflects a transition in the Chinese economy towards a more efficient, inclusive and sustainable path of growth. However, certain interpretations of and guidance for the transition in China's growth model are problematic. This article rebuts a particular notion that China needs to replace its investment-driven growth by consumption-driven growth. This notion is erroneous both theoretically and empirically. If China follows this notion as the guidance, its growth path in the future years may fall much deeper than intended, failing to narrow further the gap in the standards of living between China and the advanced economies. Policymakers should avoid such pitfalls.

Capturing the Effects of Changing Capital-Intensity on Long-Term Growth in the Major Emerging Market Economies

Fred Campano
,
Fordham University
Dominick Salvatore
,
Fordham University

Abstract

As the major emerging market economies (those in the G2: China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Argentina) move to higher levels of production one would expect that the product mix would contain more goods (and services as well) which require the adoption of newer technologies. This process is reflected in higher capital-output ratios. If we use per-capita income as a proxy for growth and the change in the incremental capital-output ratio (ICOR) as a measure of capital intensity, we can simulate long-term trends in GDP by changing a country's ICOR to the norms of developed countries. We assume that the change occurs when the country's potential GDP shifts. Therefore, the changes in the ICORs will occur in discrete intervals.
Discussant(s)
Dominick Salvatore
,
Fordham University
JEL Classifications
  • F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
  • O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity