Economic Development: Issues in Technological Innovation, Infrastructure Investment and Financial Markets
Saturday, Jan. 7, 2017 10:15 AM – 12:15 PM
Hyatt Regency Chicago, Michigan 2
- Chair: Gerald R. Marschke, State University of New York-Albany and NBER
Do China’s High-Speed-Rail Projects Promote Local Economy? ---New evidence from a panel data approach
AbstractAbstract: This paper evaluates the effect of High Speed Rail (HSR) projects on the economic growth of targeted city nodes (HSR cities) in China using prefectural-level city data from 1990 to 2013. Employing a panel data program evaluation method devised by Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012), we construct hypothetical counterfactuals for per capita real GDP of HSR cities in the absence of their respective HSR projects using the outcomes in selected non-HSR cities. We find that HSR projects have raised per capita GDP for most targeted cities we studied, while the ATEs of some HSR cities differ in magnitude or even in sign. Also, we find significant “run up” effects, indicating considerable treatment effects during the HSR construction period. HSR cities with positive ATEs spatially agglomerate on Huning corridor, and along Southeast coast HSR corridor. In general, the gain for local economies is greater for cities that are more industrialized, with more ability of the service sector to absorb enough labor, and with better supporting infrastructure. On the other hand, local protectionism hampers the development of HSR cities. We also show that at different project stages, HSR cities experience different gains.
Economic Development Levels and the Finance and Growth Nexus
AbstractThis study investigates whether a country’s level of economic development impacts its finance-growth relationship. The dynamic short run impact of financial system variables is tested against economic growth, focussed on levels of economic development, using a system GMM for 90 World Bank designated low, middle, and high income countries over 1980 – 2011. Our financial development measure includes domestic bond markets and insurance as well as the usual banking credit and stock market measures. The results confirm that levels of economic development matters in the financial development-economic growth nexus. We find that banking had a negative effect for all levels of development but more so for developed economies. Stock markets had a positive effect on growth for the middle income countries. Bond markets impacted growth positively for middle and high income countries. Insurance provides a positive relationship to growth for all three groups. In the pre-global crisis sample period, low income countries had the lowest impact on growth for banking, stock and bond markets. Also in the pre-crisis period sample tested, high income countries had the best banking result and positive effects from stock and bond markets on growth.
Gerald R. Marschke,
State University of New York-Albany and NBER
St. Francis Xavier University
- O1 - Economic Development
- O3 - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights