Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment
- (pp. 232-60)
Abstract
In a Honduran field experiment, sequences of cash transfers to poor households varied in amount of the largest (peak) and last (end) transfers. Larger peak-end transfers increased voter turnout and the incumbent party's vote share in the 2013 presidential election, independently of cumulative transfers. A plausible explanation is that voters succumbed to a common cognitive bias by applying peak-end heuristics. Another is that voters deliberately used peak-end transfers to update beliefs about the incumbent party. In either case, the results provide experimental evidence on the classic non-experimental finding that voters are especially sensitive to recent economic activity.Citation
Galiani, Sebastian, Nadya Hajj, Patrick J. McEwan, Pablo Ibarrarán, and Nandita Krishnaswamy. 2019. "Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11 (3): 232-60. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20170448Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C93 Field Experiments
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- I32 Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
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