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  4. May 2023
  5. Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?

Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?

  • Jose Asturias
  • Emin Dinlersoz
  • John Haltiwanger
  • Rebecca Hutchinson
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 113, May 2023
(pp. 151-55)
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Abstract

Are business applications early indicators of economic activity? Our analysis indicates that monthly year-over-year growth in applications for likely employer businesses significantly leads growth in total nonfarm employment and has a positive correlation with it. In addition, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in almost all other monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators considered. These findings are robust to the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Business applications for likely employers appear to be a strong leading indicator of aggregate economic activity.

Citation

Asturias, Jose, Emin Dinlersoz, John Haltiwanger, and Rebecca Hutchinson. 2023. "Are Business Applications Early Economic Indicators?" AEA Papers and Proceedings, 113: 151-55. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231053

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • E23 Macroeconomics: Production
  • E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
  • E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • I12 Health Behavior
  • J23 Labor Demand
  • L25 Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope
  • M13 New Firms; Startups