Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession
AbstractThis paper reexamines the association between local economic conditions and fertility using a new dataset of county-level birthrates and per capita income in the United States spanning the period 1937–2016. Using a panel data model, we estimate that growth in local income is positively associated with birthrates over our entire sample period and that the strength of that association peaked during the 1960–1990 period and has declined in recent decades. We additionally estimate dynamic responses to local income shocks, finding that birthrates remain elevated for up to four years after a shock.
CitationSchaller, Jessamyn, Price Fishback, and Kelli Marquardt. 2020. "Local Economic Conditions and Fertility from the Great Depression through the Great Recession." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 236-40. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201109
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
- N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- N32 Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics