Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
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Klaus Desmet
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Robert E. Kopp
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Scott A. Kulp
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Dávid Krisztián Nagy
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Michael Oppenheimer
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Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
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Benjamin H. Strauss
- American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Forthcoming)
Abstract
Sea-level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections
of local sea-level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent
flooding is
projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19% in present value terms. By the year 2200 a projected 1.46% of
population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response
of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11% to 4.5%.
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