Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 11,
no. 1, January 2019
(pp. 193-222)
Abstract
We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970–2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment and real interest rates across OECD countries.Citation
Aksoy, Yunus, Henrique S. Basso, Ron P. Smith, and Tobias Grasl. 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11 (1): 193-222. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170114Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E22 Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
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