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Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

  • William D. Nordhaus
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 13, no. 1, January 2021
(pp. 299-332)
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Abstract

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO2 emissions lead to catastrophic changes in climate and human systems? Have we depleted the store of potential great inventions? Will the aging society lead to diminished innovativeness?

Citation

Nordhaus, William D. 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13 (1): 299-332. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170105

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • E25 Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
  • O31 Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
  • O32 Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
  • O41 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
  • O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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