On the Verges of Overconfidence
AbstractThis symposium provides several examples of overconfidence in certain economic contexts. Michael Grubb looks at "Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace." Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate consider "Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence." Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer discuss "Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading." A number of insights and lessons emerge for our understanding of markets, public policy, and welfare. How do firms take advantage of consumer overconfidence? Might government attempts to rule out such practices end up providing benefits to some consumers but imposing costs on others? How are empirical measures of CEO overconfidence related to investment and the capital structure of firms? Can overconfidence among at least some investors help to explain prominent anomalies in stock markets like high levels of trading volume and certain predictable patterns in stock market returns?
CitationMalmendier, Ulrike, and Timothy Taylor. 2015. "On the Verges of Overconfidence." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29 (4): 3-8. DOI: 10.1257/jep.29.4.3
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