The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting
Journal of Economic Perspectives
vol. 12,
no. 2, Spring 1998
(pp. 175-192)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory has been developed and structural macroeconomic forecasting is poised for resurgence.Citation
Diebold, Francis X. 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12 (2): 175-192. DOI: 10.1257/jep.12.2.175JEL Classification
- E17 General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation
- C53 Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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