The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security
- (pp. 275-307)
AbstractPolicy uncertainty reduces individual welfare when individuals have limited opportunities to mitigate or insure against the resulting consumption fluctuations. We field an original survey to measure the degree of perceived policy uncertainty in Social Security benefits and to estimate the impact of this uncertainty on individual welfare. Our central estimates show that on average individuals are willing to forgo 6 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law to remove the policy uncertainty associated with their future Social Security benefits. This translates to a risk premium from policy uncertainty equal to 10 percent of expected benefits.
Citation2018. "The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security." American Economic Review, 108(2): 275-307. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151703
- D14 Household Saving; Personal Finance
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- H55 Social Security and Public Pensions