Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects
AbstractTwo identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.
CitationBernard, Andrew B., Esther Ann Boler, Renzo Massari, Jose-Daniel Reyes, and Daria Taglioni. 2017. "Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects." American Economic Review, 107 (10): 3211-28. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141070
- D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade
- O14 Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
- O19 International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations