Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 28 No. 3 (Summer 2014)


Quick Tools:

Print Article Summary
Export Citation
Sign up for Email Alerts Follow us on Twitter


JEP - All Issues

The Research Productivity of New PhDs in Economics: The Surprisingly High Non-success of the Successful

Article Citation

Conley, John P., and Ali Sina Onder. 2014. "The Research Productivity of New PhDs in Economics: The Surprisingly High Non-success of the Successful." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3): 205-16.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.28.3.205


We study the research productivity of new graduates from North American PhD programs in economics from 1986 to 2000. We find that research productivity drops off very quickly with class rank at all departments, and that the rank of the graduate departments themselves provides a surprisingly poor prediction of future research success. For example, at the top ten departments as a group, the median graduate has fewer than 0.03 American Economic Review (AER)-equivalent publications at year six after graduation, an untenurable record almost anywhere. We also find that PhD graduates of equal percentile rank from certain lower-ranked departments have stronger publication records than their counterparts at higher-ranked departments. In our data, for example, Carnegie Mellon's graduates at the 85th percentile of year-six research productivity outperform 85th percentile graduates of the University of Chicago, the University of Pennsylvania, Stanford, and Berkeley. These results suggest that even the top departments are not doing a very good job of training the great majority of their students to be successful research economists. Hiring committees may find these results helpful when trying to balance class rank and place of graduate in evaluating job candidates, and current graduate students may wish to re-evaluate their academic strategies in light of these findings.

Article Full-Text Access

Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Additional Materials

Download Data Set (313.79 KB)


Conley, John P. (Vanderbilt U)
Onder, Ali Sina (U Bayreuth and Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies, Uppsala U)

JEL Classifications

A11: Role of Economics; Role of Economists; Market for Economists
J24: Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
J44: Professional Labor Markets; Occupational Licensing


View Comments on This Article (0) | Login to post a comment

Journal of Economic Perspectives

Quick Tools:

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)


JEP - All Issues

Virtual Field Journals

AEA Member Login:

AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us