Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 10 No. 3 (Summer 1996)


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Econometrics and Presidential Elections

Article Citation

Fair, Ray C. 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(3): 89-102.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89


This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.

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Fair, Ray C. (Yale U)

JEL Classifications

D72: Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E17: General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation


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