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American Economic Review: Vol. 103 No. 2 (April 2013)

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Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy

Article Citation

Bown, Chad P., and Meredith A. Crowley. 2013. "Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy." American Economic Review, 103(2): 1071-90.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.2.1071

Abstract

The Bagwell and Staiger (1990) theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs (i) increase with imports, (ii) increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities, and (iii) decrease with the variance of imports. We find US import policy during 1997-2006 to be consistent with this theory. A one standard deviation increase in import growth, the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticity, and the standard deviation of import growth changes the probability that the US imposes an antidumping tariff by 35 percent, by 88 percent, and by -76 percent, respectively.

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Authors

Bown, Chad P. (World Bank)
Crowley, Meredith A. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

JEL Classifications

F12: Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F13: Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F14: Empirical Studies of Trade


American Economic Review


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