American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 6 (October 2011)


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The Chinese Warrants Bubble

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Xiong, Wei, and Jialin Yu. 2011. "The Chinese Warrants Bubble." American Economic Review, 101(6): 2723-53.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.6.2723


In 2005-2008, over a dozen put warrants traded in China went so deep out of the money that they were almost certain to expire worthless. Nonetheless, each warrant was traded more than three times each day at substantially inflated prices. This bubble is unique in that the underlying stock prices make warrant fundamentals publicly observable and that warrants have predetermined finite maturities. This sample allows us to examine a set of bubble theories. In particular, our analysis highlights the joint effects of short-sales constraints and heterogeneous beliefs in driving bubbles and confirms several key findings of the experimental bubble literature. (JEL G12, G13, O16, P34)

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Xiong, Wei (Princeton U)
Yu, Jialin (Columbia U)

JEL Classifications

G12: Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
G13: Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing; option pricing
O16: Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
P34: Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics

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