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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 22 No. 3 (Summer 2008)

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Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Article Citation

Gilboa, Itzhak, Andrew W. Postlewaite, and David Schmeidler. 2008. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3): 173-88.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.3.173

Abstract

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

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Authors

Gilboa, Itzhak (Tel-Aviv U and HEC)
Postlewaite, Andrew W. (U PA)
Schmeidler, David (Tel-Aviv U and OH State U)

JEL Classifications

D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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