Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 22 No. 3 (Summer 2008)


Quick Tools:

Print Article Summary
Export Citation
Sign up for Email Alerts Follow us on Twitter


JEP - All Issues

Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Article Citation

Gilboa, Itzhak, Andrew W. Postlewaite, and David Schmeidler. 2008. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3): 173-88.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.3.173


Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

Article Full-Text Access

Full-text Article (Complimentary)


Gilboa, Itzhak (Tel-Aviv U and HEC)
Postlewaite, Andrew W. (U PA)
Schmeidler, David (Tel-Aviv U and OH State U)

JEL Classifications

D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty


View Comments on This Article (0) | Login to post a comment

Journal of Economic Perspectives

Quick Tools:

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)


JEP - All Issues

Virtual Field Journals

AEA Member Login:

AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us