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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 2 No. 1 (Winter 1988)

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Comment on Poirier: Dogma or Doubt?

Article Citation

Pagan, Adrian. 1988. "Comment on Poirier: Dogma or Doubt?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(1): 153-158.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.2.1.153

Abstract

[This paper responds to "Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics," by Dale J. Poirier, in this same issue.] Poirier appeals to the latent statistician that he hopes is lurking behind every economist. Like a good fundamentalist preacher he demands, "Do you believe in the Likelihood Principle?" As with most doctrines, we give it a quick glance and reply, "Amen, brother." From there on we are trapped and led inexorably, via the creed of the likelihood principle (LP), to the one true religion of Bayesianism. Before I begin my critique, let me compliment the preacher on his sermon. I doubt if one could find a more engaging, beguiling, or coherent account of the strengths of following the Bayesian methodology. Next I provide a personal testimony concerning what bothers me about the dogmas of the recommended religion.

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Authors

Pagan, Adrian (Unlisted)

JEL Classifications

212: Construction, Analysis, and Use of Econometric Models
211: Bayesian Statistics and Bayesian Econometrics

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