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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 13 No. 2 (Spring 1999)

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Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?

Article Citation

Zarnowitz, Victor. 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?" Journal of Economic Perspectives, 13(2): 69-90.

DOI: 10.1257/jep.13.2.69

Abstract

The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation, and interest rates. The author discusses new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth and demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume, and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral.

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Authors

Zarnowitz, Victor (FIBER, New York, NY, U Chicago, and NBER)

JEL Classifications

E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E22: Capital; Investment; Capacity

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