American Economic Journal: Applied Economics: Vol. 6 No. 3 (July 2014)

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Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II

Article Citation

Schumann, Abel. 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 6(3): 189-205.

DOI: 10.1257/app.6.3.189

Abstract

In the immediate aftermath of World War II, millions of German expellees were resettled into the new borders of Germany, but not into the parts of Germany that were occupied by France. Using a spatial regression discontinuity framework, I estimate the persistence of the population shock over a 20-year-period. Between 1945 and 1950, the inflow of people increased the population in municipalities where expellees could settle by 21.6 percent. The difference in population levels is highly persistent and remained 17.8 percent in 1970. The results suggest that population patterns in the region that I study were not determined by locational fundamentals.

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Authors

Schumann, Abel (Stockholm School of Economics)

JEL Classifications

J11: Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
N34: Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: Europe: 1913-
R12: Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
R23: Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics

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