American Economic Review: Vol. 97 No. 1 (March 2007)
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The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather
Deschênes, Olivier, and Michael Greenstone. 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather." American Economic Review, 97(1): 354-385.
This paper measures the economic impact of climate change on US agricultural land by estimating the effect of random year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation on agricultural profits. The preferred estimates indicate that climate change will increase annual profits by $1.3 billion in 2002 dollars (2002$) or 4 percent. This estimate is robust to numerous specification checks and relatively precise, so large negative or positive effects are unlikely. We also find the hedonic approachwhich is the standard in the previous literatureto be unreliable because it produces estimates that are extremely sensitive to seemingly minor choices about control variables, sample, and weighting. (JEL L25, Q12, Q51, Q54)
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