American Economic Review: Vol. 104 No. 5 (May 2014)

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The Future of US Economic Growth

Article Citation

Fernald, John G., and Charles I. Jones. 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth." American Economic Review, 104(5): 44-49.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.44

Abstract

Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

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Authors

Fernald, John G. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Jones, Charles I. (Stanford U)

JEL Classifications

E23: Macroeconomics: Production
E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J24: Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
N11: Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
N12: Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
O33: Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O47: Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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