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American Economic Review: Vol. 102 No. 3 (May 2012)

Front Matter (pp. i-ix)
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Foreword (page x)
Chris Sims
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Editors' Introduction (pp. xi-xii)
William R. Johnson and Samantha Bennett
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Papers

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Does the Current Account Still Matter? (pp. 1-23)
Maurice Obstfeld
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Implications of Rational Inattention

Simple Market Equilibria with Rationally Inattentive Consumers (pp. 24-29)
Filip Matějka and Alisdair McKay
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Information Processing and Limited Liability (pp. 30-34)
Bartosz Mackowiak and Mirko Wiederholt
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Information Choice Technologies (pp. 35-40)
Christian Hellwig, Sebastian Kohls and Laura Veldkamp
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Attention and Choice

Prospect Theory as Efficient Perceptual Distortion (pp. 41-46)
Michael Woodford
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Salience in Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect (pp. 47-52)
Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
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Measuring Systemic Risk

Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market (pp. 53-58)
John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey, Nathan M. Palmer and Chun-Yi Yang
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Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks (pp. 59-64)
Viral Acharya, Robert Engle and Matthew Richardson
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (83.30 KB)

Privacy-Preserving Methods for Sharing Financial Risk Exposures (pp. 65-70)
Emmanuel A. Abbe, Amir E. Khandani and Andrew W. Lo
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Fiscal Policy During and After the Financial Crisis

Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession in the Euro Area (pp. 71-76)
Günter Coenen, Roland Straub and Mathias Trabandt
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Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures (pp. 77-81)
Robert Kollmann, Werner Roeger and Jan in't Veld
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Bubbles and Financial Crisis

Bubbles and Total Factor Productivity (pp. 82-87)
Jianjun Miao and Pengfei Wang
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Debt Financing in Asset Markets (pp. 88-94)
Zhiguo He and Wei Xiong
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (244.61 KB)

Understanding Bubbly Episodes (pp. 95-100)
Vasco M. Carvalho, Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura
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Financial Reform—What's Really Needed?

The Safe-Asset Share (pp. 101-06)
Gary Gorton, Stefan Lewellen and Andrew Metrick
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (38.53 KB)

Three Principles for Market-Based Credit Regulation (pp. 107-12)
Perry Mehrling
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Limited-Purpose Banking--Moving from 'Trust Me' to 'Show Me' Banking (pp. 113-19)
Christophe Chamley, Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Herakles Polemarchakis
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Very Local House Price Dynamics

Within-City Variation in Urban Decline: The Case of Detroit (pp. 120-26)
Veronica Guerrieri, Daniel Hartley and Erik Hurst
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Housing Booms and City Centers (pp. 127-33)
Edward L. Glaeser, Joshua D. Gottlieb and Kristina Tobio
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Heterogeneity in Neighborhood-Level Price Growth in the United States, 1993-2009 (pp. 134-40)
Fernando Ferreira and Joseph Gyourko
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Asset Prices and Wealth Dynamics with Heterogenous Beliefs

Market Prices of Risk with Diverse Beliefs, Learning, and Catastrophes (pp. 141-46)
Timothy Cogley, Thomas J. Sargent and Viktor Tsyrennikov
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Financial Innovation and Asset Price Volatility (pp. 147-51)
Felix Kubler and Karl Schmedders
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (188.42 KB)

International Robust Disagreement (pp. 152-55)
Riccardo Colacito and Mariano M. Croce
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Heterogeneous Beliefs, Wealth Distribution, and Asset Markets with Risk of Default (pp. 156-60)
Viktor Tsyrennikov
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Empirical Approaches to Sovereign Debt Default and Monetary-Fiscal Interactions

Estimating Sovereign Default Risk (pp. 161-66)
Huixin Bi and Nora Traum
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Evolving Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix in the United States (pp. 167-72)
Francesco Bianchi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (128.04 KB)

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and Indeterminacy in Postwar US Data (pp. 173-78)
Saroj Bhattarai, Jae Won Lee and Woong Yong Park
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (93.57 KB)

Managing Currency Pegs

Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone (pp. 179-85)
Martin Berka, Michael B. Devereux and Charles Engel
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Fiscal Consolidation in an Open Economy (pp. 186-91)
Christopher J. Erceg and Jesper Lindé
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Managing Currency Pegs (pp. 192-97)
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe
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International Monetary Reform

Can Asia Overcome the IMF Stigma? (pp. 198-202)
Takatoshi Ito
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Capital Flow Management (pp. 203-06)
Olivier Jeanne
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International Liquidity in a Multipolar World (pp. 207-12)
Barry Eichengreen
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The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Bank-Level Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis

Follow the Money: Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession (pp. 213-18)
Nicola Cetorelli and Linda S. Goldberg
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Flight Home, Flight Abroad, and International Credit Cycles (pp. 219-24)
Mariassunta Giannetti and Luc Laeven
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From Financial Crisis to Great Recession: The Role of Globalized Banks (pp. 225-30)
Shekhar Aiyar
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International Shock Transmission after the Lehman Brothers Collapse: Evidence from Syndicated Lending (pp. 231-37)
Ralph De Haas and Neeltje Van Horen
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Coping with Economic and Environmental Shocks: Institutions and Outcomes

Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century (pp. 238-44)
Leah Platt Boustan, Matthew E. Kahn and Paul W. Rhode
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Nature versus Nurture: The Environment's Persistent Influence through the Modernization of American Agriculture (pp. 245-49)
Richard Hornbeck
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Adaptation to Climate Change in Preindustrial Iceland (pp. 250-55)
Matthew A. Turner, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, Jian Chen and Chunyan Hao
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Crime and Terrorism

Race and Gender Differences under Federal Sentencing Guidelines (pp. 256-60)
Todd Sorensen, Supriya Sarnikar and Ronald L. Oaxaca
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Terrorism and Patriotism: On the Earnings of US Veterans following September 11, 2001 (pp. 261-66)
Alberto Dávila and Marie T. Mora
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The Nonlinear Relationship between Terrorism and Poverty (pp. 267-72)
Walter Enders and Gary A. Hoover
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (83.24 KB)

War and Stature: Growing Up during the Nigerian Civil War (pp. 273-77)
Richard Akresh, Sonia Bhalotra, Marinella Leone and Una Okonkwo Osili
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Growth Inputs: From Human Capital to Nation Building

Nation Building and Economic Growth (pp. 278-82)
Ellyn Creasey, Ahmed S. Rahman and Katherine A. Smith
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The Determinants and Consequences of School Choice Errors in Kenya (pp. 283-88)
Adrienne M. Lucas and Isaac M. Mbiti
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Kinship and Financial Networks, Formal Financial Access, and Risk Reduction (pp. 289-93)
Cynthia Kinnan and Robert Townsend
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Child Health and Conflict in Côte d'Ivoire (pp. 294-99)
Camelia Minoiu and Olga Shemyakina
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The Effects of Financial Education and Financial Literacy

How Financial Literacy Affects Household Wealth Accumulation (pp. 300-304)
Jere R. Behrman, Olivia S. Mitchell, Cindy K. Soo and David Bravo
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Financial Education and Timely Decision Support: Lessons from Junior Achievement (pp. 305-08)
Bruce Ian Carlin and David T. Robinson
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Financial Knowledge and Financial Literacy at the Household Level (pp. 309-13)
Alan L. Gustman, Thomas L. Steinmeier and Nahid Tabatabai
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (63.54 KB)

Effectiveness of Employer-Provided Financial Information: Hiring to Retiring (pp. 314-18)
Robert L. Clark, Melinda Sandler Morrill and Steven G. Allen
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Robustness and Approximation in Mechanism Design

Efficient Auctions and Interdependent Types (pp. 319-24)
Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris and Satoru Takahashi
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Robustly Ranking Mechanisms (pp. 325-29)
Tilman Börgers and Doug Smith
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Approximation in Mechanism Design (pp. 330-36)
Jason D. Hartline
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Digitization and New Research Directions: Copyright, Privacy, and User-Generated Content

Copyright Research in the Digital Age: Moving from Piracy to the Supply of New Products (pp. 337-42)
Joel Waldfogel
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Is Wikipedia Biased? (pp. 343-48)
Shane Greenstein and Feng Zhu
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Shifts in Privacy Concerns (pp. 349-53)
Avi Goldfarb and Catherine Tucker
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New Challenges for Market Design

New Challenges in Multihospital Kidney Exchange (pp. 354-59)
Itai Ashlagi and Alvin E. Roth
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Holdout in the Assembly of Complements: A Problem for Market Design (pp. 360-65)
Scott Duke Kominers and E. Glen Weyl
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Stability and Strategy-Proofness for Matching with Constraints: A Problem in the Japanese Medical Match and Its Solution (pp. 366-70)
Yuichiro Kamada and Fuhito Kojima
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Understanding Price Controls and Nonprice Competition with Matching Theory (pp. 371-75)
John William Hatfield, Charles R. Plott and Tomomi Tanaka
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In Remembrance of Alfred E. Kahn: Fred Kahn's Impact on Deregulation and Regulatory Reform

After Airline Deregulation and Alfred E. Kahn (pp. 376-80)
Nancy L. Rose
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Dynamic Pricing of Electricity (pp. 381-85)
Paul L. Joskow and Catherine D. Wolfram
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Telecommunications Deregulation (pp. 386-90)
Jerry A. Hausman and William E. Taylor
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Government Policy for a Partially Deregulated Industry: Deregulate It Fully (pp. 391-95)
Clifford Winston
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Global Production Chains

Global Supply Chains and Wage Inequality (pp. 396-401)
Arnaud Costinot, Jonathan Vogel and Su Wang
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Sustaining Production Chains through Financial Linkages (pp. 402-06)
Se-Jik Kim and Hyun Song Shin
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Proximity and Production Fragmentation (pp. 407-11)
Robert C. Johnson and Guillermo Noguera
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Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows (pp. 412-16)
Pol Antràs, Davin Chor, Thibault Fally and Russell Hillberry
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Additional Materials (3.15 MB)

Trade and Labor Markets: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data

Trade, Labor Market Frictions, and Residual Wage Inequality across Worker Groups (pp. 417-23)
Pravin Krishna, Jennifer P. Poole and Mine Zeynep Senses
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Offshoring, Transition, and Training: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data (pp. 424-28)
David Hummels, Jakob R. Munch, Lars Skipper and Chong Xiang
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (41.91 KB)

Liberalized Trade and Worker-Firm Matching (pp. 429-34)
Carl Davidson, Fredrik Heyman, Steven Matusz, Fredrik Sjöholm and Susan Chun Zhu
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Exports and Within-Plant Wage Distributions: Evidence from Mexico (pp. 435-40)
Judith A. Frías, David S. Kaplan and Eric Verhoogen
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (96.81 KB)

New Directions in Trade And Geography

Village Economic Accounts: Real and Financial Intertwined (pp. 441-46)
Archawa Paweenawat and Robert M. Townsend
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Innovation in Space (pp. 447-52)
Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
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Ricardo's Theory of Comparative Advantage: Old Idea, New Evidence (pp. 453-58)
Arnaud Costinot and Dave Donaldson
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New Directions in Trade Policy

Tariff Revenue and Tariff Caps (pp. 459-65)
Manuel Amador and Kyle Bagwell
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Profits in the 'New Trade' Approach to Trade Negotiations (pp. 466-69)
Ralph Ossa
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Trade Agreements and the Nature of Price Determination (pp. 470-76)
Pol Antràs and Robert W. Staiger
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Model Selection

On the Use of Holdout Samples for Model Selection (pp. 477-81)
Frank Schorfheide and Kenneth I. Wolpin
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Prediction with Misspecified Models (pp. 482-86)
John Geweke and Gianni Amisano
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Assumptions Matter: Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment (pp. 487-92)
Steven N. Durlauf, Chao Fu and Salvador Navarro
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The 2006 Massachusetts Health Reform

Heuristics and Heterogeneity in Health Insurance Exchanges: Evidence from the Massachusetts Connector (pp. 493-97)
Keith Marzilli Ericson and Amanda Starc
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Health Reform, Health Insurance, and Selection: Estimating Selection into Health Insurance Using the Massachusetts Health Reform (pp. 498-501)
Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad and Amanda E. Kowalski
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (32.52 KB) | Online Appendix (47.11 KB)

The Impact of the Massachusetts Health Care Reform on Health Care Use among Children (pp. 502-07)
Sarah Miller
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How Did Health Care Reform in Massachusetts Impact Insurance Premiums? (pp. 508-13)
John A. Graves and Jonathan Gruber
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Causes and Consequences of Unemployment: New Microeconomic Evidence and Perspectives

The Long-Term Effects of UI Extensions on Employment (pp. 514-19)
Johannes F. Schmieder, Till von Wachter and Stefan Bender
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Unemployment in the Great Recession: Did the Housing Market Crisis Prevent the Unemployed from Moving to Take Jobs? (pp. 520-25)
Henry S. Farber
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Contract Form, Wage Flexibility, and Employment (pp. 526-31)
Thomas Lemieux, W. Bentley MacLeod and Daniel Parent
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (329.56 KB)

Immigration, Employment, and Entrepreneurship

Access to Credit by Small Businesses: How Relevant Are Race, Ethnicity, and Gender? (pp. 532-37)
Elizabeth Asiedu, James A. Freeman and Akwasi Nti-Addae
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (122.47 KB)

Coming to America: Does Having a Developed Home Country Matter for Self-Employment in the United States? (pp. 538-42)
Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere and Willie Belton
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The Labor Market Impact of Mandated Employment Verification Systems (pp. 543-48)
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes and Cynthia Bansak
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The Employment of Low-Skilled Immigrant Men in the United States (pp. 549-54)
Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (125.78 MB)

Maternity Leave, Family Formation, and Caregiving

Love and Money by Parental Matchmaking: Evidence from Urban Couples in China (pp. 555-60)
Fali Huang, Ginger Zhe Jin and Lixin Colin Xu
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Business Cycles and Gender Diversification: An Analysis of Establishment-Level Gender Dissimilarity (pp. 561-65)
Cynthia Bansak, Mary E. Graham and Allan A. Zebedee
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Birth Rates and the Vietnam Draft (pp. 566-69)
Marianne P. Bitler and Lucie Schmidt
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Identification of the Effect of Depression on Risky Sexual Behavior: Exploiting a Natural Experiment (pp. 570-74)
Susan L. Averett and Yang Wang
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Measuring and Explaining the Collapse of the Labor Market in the Great Recession

Hiring, Churn, and the Business Cycle (pp. 575-79)
Edward P. Lazear and James R. Spletzer
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Job-to-Job Flows in the Great Recession (pp. 580-83)
Henry Hyatt and Erika McEntarfer
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Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence (pp. 584-88)
Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman and John C. Haltiwanger
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Did the Housing Price Bubble Clobber Local Labor Market Job and Worker Flows When It Burst? (pp. 589-93)
John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (2.06 MB)

Time Away from Work

Time Use, Emotional Well-Being, and Unemployment: Evidence from Longitudinal Data (pp. 594-99)
Alan B. Krueger and Andreas I. Mueller
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (29.88 KB)

Retirement and Home Production: A Regression Discontinuity Approach (pp. 600-605)
Elena Stancanelli and Arthur Van Soest
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (102.48 KB)

The Role of Preferences and Opportunity Costs in Determining the Time Allocated to Housework (pp. 606-11)
Leslie S. Stratton
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (72.86 KB) | Online Appendix (169.98 KB)

Aggregate Impacts of a Gift of Time (pp. 612-16)
Jungmin Lee, Daiji Kawaguchi and Daniel S. Hamermesh
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Proceedings

Minutes of the Annual Business Meeting: Chicago, IL: January 7, 2012 (pp. 620-21)
John J. Siegfried
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Reports

Report of the Secretary for 2011 (pp. 622-25)
John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Report of the Treasurer (pp. 626-30)
John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (pp. 631-34)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, April 15, 2011 (pp. 637-44)
John J. Siegfried
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Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, January 5, 2012 (pp. 645-52)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Review (pp. 653-65)
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 666-68)
Janet Currie
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 669-71)
David H. Autor
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (pp. 672-75)
Esther Duflo
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (pp. 676-79)
Alan Auerbach
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (pp. 680-84)
Steven J. Davis
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (pp. 685-87)
Andrew Postlewaite
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Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists (pp. 688-90)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Committee on Economic Education for 2011 (pp. 691-96)
Michael Watts
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Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession 2011 (pp. 697-704)
Barbara M. Fraumeni
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Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession: Report of Committee Activities for the 2011 Calendar Year (pp. 705-09)
Marie T. Mora
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American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat): Annual Report--2011 (page 710)
Robert Feenstra
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Committee on Government Relations (pp. 711-13)
Charles Schultze
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The American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Associations (pp. 714-15)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Selection Committee for the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Editor (page 716)
Michael Woodford
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