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American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 3 (May 2011)

Front Matter (pp. i-ix)
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Foreword (page x)
Orley C. Ashenfelter
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Editors' Introduction (pp. xi-xii)
William R. Johnson and Samantha Bennett
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Papers

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Inequality at Birth: Some Causes and Consequences (pp. 1-22)
Janet Currie
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Recessions and Retirement

Recessions, Retirement, and Social Security (pp. 23-28)
Courtney C. Coile and Phillip B. Levine
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

What Explains Changes in Retirement Plans during the Great Recession? (pp. 29-34)
Gopi Shah Goda, John B. Shoven and Sita Nataraj Slavov
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Time to Retire? The Effect of State Fiscal Policies on Retirement Decisions (pp. 35-39)
Tami Gurley-Calvez and Brian Hill
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Crash and Wait? The Impact of the Great Recession on the Retirement Plans of Older Americans (pp. 40-44)
Brooke Helppie McFall
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (1.51 MB) | Online Appendix (663.92 KB)

Evaluating Empirical Tools for Horizontal Merger Analysis

Does Concentration Matter? Measurement of Petroleum Merger Price Effects (pp. 45-50)
Daniel Hosken, Louis Silvia and Christopher Taylor
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More Evidence on the Performance of Merger Simulations (pp. 51-55)
Matthew C. Weinberg
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Challenges in Merger Simulation Analysis (pp. 56-59)
Christopher R. Knittel and Konstantinos Metaxoglou
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Economic Underpinnings of Recycling and Waste Disposal Policies

The Effect of Bottle Laws on Income: New Empirical Results (pp. 60-64)
Bevin Ashenmiller
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Promoting Recycling: Private Values, Social Norms, and Economic Incentives (pp. 65-70)
W. Kip Viscusi, Joel Huber and Jason Bell
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (75.85 KB)

The Environmental Consequences of Global Reuse (pp. 71-76)
Thomas Kinnaman and Hide-Fumi Yokoo
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Energy Conservation and Electricity Demand

The Diffusion of Energy Efficiency in Building (pp. 77-82)
Nils Kok, Marquise McGraw and John M. Quigley
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (792.72 KB)

Do Residential Customers Respond to Hourly Prices? Evidence from a Dynamic Pricing Experiment (pp. 83-87)
Frank A. Wolak
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Electricity Consumption and Durable Housing: Understanding Cohort Effects (pp. 88-92)
Dora L. Costa and Matthew E. Kahn
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (23.21 MB)

Economics of the Automobile Sector

Is an Automaker's Road to Bankruptcy Paved with Customers' Beliefs? (pp. 93-97)
Ali Hortaçsu, Gregor Matvos, Chaehee Shin, Chad Syverson and Sriram Venkataraman
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (204.50 KB)

Consumers' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Energy Costs (pp. 98-104)
Hunt Allcott
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Fuel Economy, Car Class Mix, and Safety (pp. 105-09)
Mark R. Jacobsen
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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys (pp. 110-14)
Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee and Richard T. Curtin
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Credit Ratings and the Financial Crisis

Credit Ratings and Security Prices in the Subprime MBS Market (pp. 115-19)
Adam Ashcraft, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull and James Vickery
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Credit Ratings Accuracy and Analyst Incentives (pp. 120-24)
Heski Bar-Isaac and Joel Shapiro
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Did Credit Rating Agencies Make Unbiased Assumptions on CDOs? (pp. 125-30)
John M. Griffin and Dragon Yongjun Tang
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (1.28 MB)

Credit Ratings and the Evolution of the Mortgage-Backed Securities Market (pp. 131-35)
Jie He, Jun Qian and Philip E. Strahan
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Topics in Wine Economics

Wine Retail Price Dispersion in the United States: Searching for Expensive Wines? (pp. 136-41)
David A. Jaeger and Karl Storchmann
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Climate, Grapevine Phenology, Wine Production, and Prices: Pauillac (1800-2009) (pp. 142-46)
Jean-Michel Chevet, Sébastien Lecocq and Michael Visser
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (33.36 KB)

Isolating the Symbolic Implications of Employee Mobility: Price Increases after Hiring Winemakers from Prominent Wineries (pp. 147-51)
Peter W. Roberts, Mukti Khaire and Christopher I. Rider
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What Is the Value of Terroir? (pp. 152-56)
Robin Cross, Andrew J. Plantinga and Robert N. Stavins
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Economics as a Moral Science

The Restoration of Welfare Economics (pp. 157-61)
Anthony B. Atkinson
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Markets and Morality (pp. 162-65)
Jagdish Bhagwati
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Economics: A Moral Inquiry with Religious Origins (pp. 166-70)
Benjamin M. Friedman
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Economists as Worldly Philosophers (pp. 171-75)
Robert J. Shiller and Virginia M. Shiller
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Growing New PhD Economists

Completion Rates and Time-to-Degree in Economics PhD Programs (with comments by David Colander, N. Gregory Mankiw, Melissa P. McInerney, James M. Poterba) (pp. 176-88)
Wendy A. Stock, John J. Siegfried and T. Aldrich Finegan
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Frontiers of Productivity and Output Measurement

A Bright Idea for Measuring Economic Growth (pp. 194-99)
Vernon Henderson, Adam Storeygard and David N. Weil
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Does Quality Adjustment Matter for Technologically Stable Products? An Application to the CPI for Food (pp. 200-205)
John S. Greenlees and Robert McClelland
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Quality Adjustment for Health Care Spending on Chronic Disease: Evidence from Diabetes Treatment, 1999-2009 (pp. 206-11)
Karen N. Eggleston, Nilay D. Shah, Steven A. Smith, Ernst R. Berndt and Joseph P. Newhouse
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Economics of the Arts

Sale Rates and Price Movements in Art Auctions (pp. 212-16)
Orley Ashenfelter and Kathryn Graddy
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Rock and Roll Bands, (In)complete Contracts, and Creativity (pp. 217-21)
Cédric Ceulemans, Victor Ginsburgh and Patrick Legros
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Art and Money (pp. 222-26)
William N. Goetzmann, Luc Renneboog and Christophe Spaenjers
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Optimal Learning Patterns for Creativity Generation in a Field (pp. 227-32)
Jonathan S. Feinstein
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Moving Beyond Deregulation

Why Can't US Airlines Make Money? (pp. 233-37)
Severin Borenstein
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Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies (pp. 238-41)
Paul L. Joskow
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Financial Regulatory Reform: Challenges Ahead (pp. 242-46)
Randall S. Kroszner and Philip E. Strahan
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Measuring the Benefits of Greater Spatial Granularity in Short-Term Pricing in Wholesale Electricity Markets (pp. 247-52)
Frank A. Wolak
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Critical Issues in National Climate Policy Design

Challenges from State-Federal Interactions in US Climate Change Policy (pp. 253-57)
Lawrence H. Goulder and Robert N. Stavins
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The Role of Trade and Competitiveness Measures in US Climate Policy (pp. 258-62)
Carolyn Fischer and Alan K. Fox
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Vertical Targeting and Leakage in Carbon Policy (pp. 263-67)
James B. Bushnell and Erin T. Mansur
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (25.74 KB)

The Effect of Allowing Pollution Offsets with Imperfect Enforcement (pp. 268-72)
Hilary Sigman and Howard F. Chang
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Law and Economics

Corrective Taxation versus Liability (pp. 273-76)
Steven Shavell
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (98.84 KB)

Optimal Proof Burdens, Deterrence, and the Chilling of Desirable Behavior (pp. 277-80)
Louis Kaplow
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Trust in Public Institutions over the Business Cycle (pp. 281-87)
Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers
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Predicting and Preventing Shootings among At-Risk Youth (pp. 288-92)
Dana Chandler, Steven D. Levitt and John A. List
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (149.00 KB)

The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-2009

The 'Collapse in Quality' Hypothesis (pp. 293-97)
Andrei A. Levchenko, Logan T. Lewis and Linda L. Tesar
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (195.35 KB)

Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse (pp. 298-302)
JaeBin Ahn, Mary Amiti and David E. Weinstein
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (10.45 KB)

US Trade and Inventory Dynamics (pp. 303-07)
George Alessandria, Joseph P. Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (748.18 KB) | Online Appendix (126.47 KB)

Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade (pp. 308-12)
Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (41.24 KB)

Using Field Experiments in Environment and Resource Economics

Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies? The Case of Exogenous Market Experience (pp. 313-17)
John A. List
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The Persistence of Treatment Effects with Norm-Based Policy Instruments: Evidence from a Randomized Environmental Policy Experiment (pp. 318-22)
Paul J. Ferraro, Juan Jose Miranda and Michael K. Price
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Can Tailored Communications Motivate Environmental Volunteers? A Natural Field Experiment (pp. 323-28)
Omar Al-Ubaydli and Min Lee
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Using Artefactual Field Experiments to Learn about the Incentives for Sustainable Forest Use in Developing Economies (pp. 329-33)
Maarten Voors, Erwin Bulte, Andreas Kontoleon, John A. List and Ty Turley
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Causal Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on Health and Welfare

Long-Term Consequences of Vietnam-Era Conscription: New Estimates Using Social Security Data (pp. 334-38)
Joshua D. Angrist, Stacey H. Chen and Jae Song
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Battle Scars? The Puzzling Decline in Employment and Rise in Disability Receipt among Vietnam Era Veterans (pp. 339-44)
David H. Autor, Mark G. Duggan and David S. Lyle
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Long-Run Mortality Effects of Vietnam-Era Army Service: Evidence from Australia's Conscription Lotteries (pp. 345-49)
Peter Siminski and Simon Ville
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The War at Home: Effects of Vietnam-Era Military Service on Postwar Household Stability (pp. 350-54)
Dalton Conley and Jennifer Heerwig
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Race, Property, and Segregation in Historical Perspective

Race and Home Ownership from the End of the Civil War to the Present (pp. 355-59)
William J. Collins and Robert A. Margo
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (115.09 KB)

Covenants without Courts: Enforcing Residential Segregation with Legally Unenforceable Agreements (pp. 360-65)
Richard R. W. Brooks
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The New Deal, Race, and Home Ownership in the 1920s and 1930s (pp. 366-70)
Trevor M. Kollmann and Price V. Fishback
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (128.51 KB)

Land and Racial Wealth Inequality (pp. 371-76)
Melinda C. Miller
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The Economics of the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Program

Heterogeneity in Choice Inconsistencies among the Elderly: Evidence from Prescription Drug Plan Choice (pp. 377-81)
Jason Abaluck and Jonathan Gruber
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Part D Formulary and Benefit Design as a Risk-Steering Mechanism (pp. 382-86)
Dana P. Goldman, Geoffrey F. Joyce and William B. Vogt
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The Medium-Term Impact of Medicare Part D on Pharmaceutical Prices (pp. 387-92)
Mark G. Duggan and Fiona Scott Morton
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Are Drugs Substitutes or Complements for Intensive (and Expensive) Medical Treatment (pp. 393-97)
Yuting Zhang, Joseph P. Newhouse and Katherine Baicker
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

New Approaches for Modeling Risk in Macroeconomics

The Risky Steady State (pp. 398-401)
Nicolas Coeurdacier, Hélène Rey and Pablo Winant
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Market Sentiment: A Tragedy of the Commons (pp. 402-05)
Tarek A. Hassan and Thomas M. Mertens
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Disasterization: A Simple Way to Fix the Asset Pricing Properties of Macroeconomic Models (pp. 406-09)
Xavier Gabaix
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Regulating Asset Price Risk (pp. 410-12)
Philippe Bacchetta, Cédric Tille and Eric van Wincoop
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Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap (pp. 413-16)
Karel Mertens and Morten O. Ravn
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Behavioral Economics and Consumer Regulation

Helping Consumers Know Themselves (pp. 417-22)
Emir Kamenica, Sendhil Mullainathan and Richard Thaler
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

The Limits of Transparency: Pitfalls and Potential of Disclosing Conflicts of Interest (pp. 423-28)
George Loewenstein, Daylian M. Cain and Sunita Sah
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

The Financial Education Fallacy (pp. 429-34)
Lauren E. Willis
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Responses to Environmental Regulation

Superfund Cleanups and Infant Health (pp. 435-41)
Janet Currie, Michael Greenstone and Enrico Moretti
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Environmental Regulation and Labor Reallocation: Evidence from the Clean Air Act (pp. 442-47)
W. Reed Walker
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (50.53 KB)

Water Quality Violations and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from Bottled Water Consumption (pp. 448-53)
Joshua Graff Zivin, Matthew Neidell and Wolfram Schlenker
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Mobility and Monopsony in the Labor Market

Monopsony, Mobility, and Sex Differences in Pay: Missouri School Teachers (pp. 454-59)
Michael R. Ransom and Val E. Lambson
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (131.37 KB)

Teacher Mobility Responses to Wage Changes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment (pp. 460-65)
Torberg Falch
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Negative Returns to Seniority and Job Mobility across the Program Quality Distribution: Are Top Public PhD-Granting Programs Different? (pp. 466-70)
Michael J. Hilmer and Christiana E. Hilmer
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Micro versus Macro Labor Supply Elasticities

Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins (pp. 471-75)
Raj Chetty, Adam Guren, Day Manoli and Andrea Weber
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (27.13 KB)

Interpreting Labor Supply Regressions in a Model of Full- and Part-Time Work (pp. 476-81)
Yongsung Chang, Sun-Bin Kim, Kyooho Kwon and Richard Rogerson
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Labor Supply and the Extensive Margin (pp. 482-86)
Richard Blundell, Antoine Bozio and Guy Laroque
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (155.52 KB)

A Labor Supply Elasticity Accord? (pp. 487-91)
Lars Ljungqvist and Thomas J. Sargent
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Culture, Institutions, and Development

Which Dimensions of Culture Matter for Long-Run Growth? (pp. 492-98)
Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Gerard Roland
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Fertility and the Plough (pp. 499-503)
Alberto Alesina, Paola Giuliano and Nathan Nunn
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

The Weight of History on European Cultural Integration: A Gravity Approach (pp. 504-08)
Pauline Grosjean
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Social Preferences and Fairness Norms as Informal Institutions: Experimental Evidence (pp. 509-13)
Pamela Jakiela
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (132.61 KB)

Minorities in Eastern Europe

Gender Gap in Performance under Competitive Pressure: Admissions to Czech Universities (pp. 514-18)
Štěpán Jurajda and Daniel Münich
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The Roma/Non-Roma Test Score Gap in Hungary (pp. 519-25)
Gábor Kertesi and Gábor Kézdi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (249.72 KB)

Learn English, Not the Local Language! Ethnic Russians in the Baltic States (pp. 526-31)
Ott Toomet
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Regression, Reweighting, or Both?

Oaxaca-Blinder as a Reweighting Estimator (pp. 532-37)
Patrick Kline
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (13.83 KB)

Robustness to Parametric Assumptions in Missing Data Models (pp. 538-43)
Bryan S. Graham and Keisuke Hirano
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Flexible Estimation of Treatment Effect Parameters (pp. 544-51)
Thomas MaCurdy, Xiaohong Chen and Han Hong
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

How Economic Measurement Was Invented

Origins of the Unemployment Rate: The Lasting Legacy of Measurement without Theory (pp. 552-57)
David Card
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The Lerner Index of Monopoly Power: Origins and Uses (pp. 558-64)
Kenneth G. Elzinga and David E. Mills
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (62.13 KB)

Real Wage Index Numbers (pp. 565-70)
John Pencavel
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Challenges Facing Developing Countries

The Impact of the Transatlantic Slave Trade on Ethnic Stratification in Africa (pp. 571-76)
Warren Whatley and Rob Gillezeau
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (116.46 KB)

Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa (pp. 577-81)
Hassan Y. Aly and Mark C. Strazicich
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Remittances and Income Smoothing (pp. 582-87)
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes and Susan Pozo
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (3.29 MB) | Online Appendix (78.81 KB)

Race, Gender, Ethnicity, College Choice, and The Labor Market

Applying Fixed Effects to Hierarchical Segregation Models (pp. 588-92)
Dina Shatnawi, Ronald Oaxaca and Michael Ransom
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Does Mestizaje Matter in the US? Economic Stratification of Mexican Immigrants (pp. 593-97)
Alberto Dávila, Marie T. Mora and Sue K. Stockly
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College (pp. 598-602)
Andrew J. Hussey and Omari H. Swinton
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Tracking Intergenerational Progress for Immigrant Groups: The Problem of Ethnic Attrition (pp. 603-08)
Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

New Developments in Housing Research

Owner-Occupied Housing: Life-Cycle Implications for the Household Portfolio (pp. 609-14)
Marjorie Flavin and Takashi Yamashita
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (20.57 MB)

House Prices and Marital Stability (pp. 615-19)
Martin Farnham, Lucie Schmidt and Purvi Sevak
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Hazardous Waste Cleanup, Neighborhood Gentrification, and Environmental Justice: Evidence from Restricted Access Census Block Data (pp. 620-24)
Shanti Gamper-Rabindran and Christopher Timmins
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Estimating the Willingness to Pay to Avoid Violent Crime: A Dynamic Approach (pp. 625-29)
Kelly C. Bishop and Alvin D. Murphy
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Gender Gaps in Families, Health Care, and Industry

Compensating Differentials for Sexual Harassment (pp. 630-34)
Joni Hersch
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Chipping Away at the Glass Ceiling: Gender Spillovers in Corporate Leadership (pp. 635-39)
David A. Matsa and Amalia R. Miller
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Have Gender Gaps in Insurance Coverage and Access to Care Narrowed under Health Reform? Findings from Massachusetts (pp. 640-44)
Sharon K. Long, Karen Stockley and Shanna Shulman
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International Migration and Gender Discrimination among Children Left Behind (pp. 645-49)
Francisca M. Antman
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Proceedings

Minutes of the Annual Meeting: Denver, CO, January 8, 2011 (pp. 653-54)
John J. Siegfried
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Reports

Report of the Secretary for 2010 (pp. 655-58)
John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Report of the Treasurer (pp. 659-63)
John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (pp. 664-67)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, April 23, 2010 (pp. 669-76)
John J. Siegfried
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Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Denver, CO, January 6, 2011 (pp. 677-83)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Review (with Appendix by Philip J. Glandon) (pp. 684-93)
Robert A. Moffitt
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 700-702)
Janet Currie
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 703-05)
David Autor
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (pp. 706-09)
Esther Duflo
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (pp. 710-12)
Alan J. Auerbach
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (pp. 713-17)
Steven J. Davis
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (pp. 718-20)
Andrew Postlewaite
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Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists (pp. 721-23)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Committee on Economic Education for 2010 (pp. 724-30)
Michael Watts
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Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession 2010 (pp. 731-36)
Barbara M. Fraumeni
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession: Report of Committee Activities for the 2010 Calendar Year (pp. 737-38)
Ngina Chiteji
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American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat): Annual Report--2010 (pp. 739-40)
Matthew D. Shapiro
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Committee on Government Relations (pp. 741-43)
Katharine G. Abraham
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Report of Ad Hoc Committee on the Job Market (pp. 744-46)
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