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American Economic Review: Vol. 100 No. 2 (May 2010)

Front Matter (page i)
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Editors' Introduction (page x)
William R. Johnson and Samantha Bennett
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Foreword (pp. xi-xii)
Robert E. Hall
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Papers

Richard T. Ely Lecture

Computer Mediated Transactions (pp. 1-10)
Hal R. Varian
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Revisiting and Rethinking the Business Cycle

Okun's Law and Productivity Innovations (pp. 11-15)
Robert J. Gordon
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Indicators for Dating Business Cycles: Cross-History Selection and Comparisons (pp. 16-19)
James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
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Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions (pp. 20-24)
S. Borağan Aruoba and Francis X. Diebold
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (279.85 KB)

The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating (pp. 25-29)
Allen Sinai
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Understanding the Impact of Fiscal Policy

Some Fiscal Calculus (pp. 30-34)
Harald Uhlig
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (26.12 KB)

Fiscal Policy in a Model with Financial Frictions (pp. 35-40)
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
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Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions (pp. 41-45)
Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, André Meier and Gernot J. Müller
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Banking and Securitization

Asset Fire Sales and Credit Easing (pp. 46-50)
Andrei Shleifer and Robert W. Vishny
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The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data (pp. 51-56)
Atif Mian and Amir Sufi
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Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles (pp. 57-61)
Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
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Economic Growth and Open-Economy Macroeconomics

Growth, Size, and Openness: A Quantitative Approach (pp. 62-67)
Natalia Ramondo and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (80.94 KB)

Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Performance: Lessons from the Golden Era of International Finance (pp. 68-72)
Lee E. Ohanian and Mark L. J. Wright
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The Marginal Product of Capital, Capital Flows, and Convergence (pp. 73-77)
Sirsha Chatterjee and Kanda Naknoi
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The Quantitative Role of Capital Goods Imports in US Growth (pp. 78-82)
Michele Cavallo and Anthony Landry
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Growth in a Partially De-Globalized World

Political Limits to Globalization (pp. 83-88)
Daron Acemoglu and Pierre Yared
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Making Room for China in the World Economy (pp. 89-93)
Dani Rodrik
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What Parts of Globalization Matter for Catch-Up Growth? (pp. 94-98)
Paul M. Romer
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Measuring Intangible Capital

How Do You Measure a 'Technological Revolution'? (pp. 99-104)
Carol A. Corrado and Charles R. Hulten
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New Approaches to Surveying Organizations (pp. 105-09)
Nicholas Bloom and John Van Reenen
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Artistic Originals as a Capital Asset (pp. 110-14)
Rachel Soloveichik
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Institutions and Development

Institutions, Factor Prices, and Taxation: Virtues of Strong States? (pp. 115-19)
Daron Acemoglu
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Coping with Political Instability: Micro Evidence from Kenya's 2007 Election Crisis (pp. 120-24)
Pascaline Dupas and Jonathan Robinson
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Do Traditional Institutions Constrain Female Entrepreneurship? A Field Experiment on Business Training in India (pp. 125-29)
Erica Field, Seema Jayachandran and Rohini Pande
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (19.70 KB) | Download Additional Materials (215.46 KB)

Creating Property Rights: Land Banks in Ghana (pp. 130-34)
Ernest Aryeetey and Christopher Udry
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Development, Culture, and Institutions

Cultural and Institutional Bifurcation: China and Europe Compared (pp. 135-40)
Avner Greif and Guido Tabellini
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Equilibrium Fictions: A Cognitive Approach to Societal Rigidity (pp. 141-46)
Karla Hoff and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (355.86 KB)

Religious Conversion in Colonial Africa (pp. 147-52)
Nathan Nunn
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Innovation and Open Science

The Public and Private Sectors in the Process of Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Mouse Genetics Revolution (pp. 153-58)
Philippe Aghion, Mathias Dewatripont, Julian Kolev, Fiona Murray and Scott Stern
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Network Effects in Biology R&D (pp. 159-64)
Joachim Henkel and Stephen M. Maurer
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Openness, Open Source, and the Veil of Ignorance (pp. 165-71)
Suzanne Scotchmer
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Agriculture and Energy: New Direct and Indirect Links Can Lead to Unintended Consequences

Economywide Implications from US Bioenergy Expansion (pp. 172-77)
Mark Gehlhar, Agapi Somwaru, Peter B. Dixon, Maureen T. Rimmer and Ashley R. Winston
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Ethanol Policy Effects on U.S. Natural Gas Prices and Quantities (pp. 178-82)
Jarrett Whistance, Wyatt W. Thompson and Seth D. Meyer
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Are Biofuels the Culprit? OPEC, Food, and Fuel (pp. 183-87)
Gal Hochman, Deepak Rajagopal and David Zilberman
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Human Capital, Health Outcomes, and Inequality

The Health Returns of Education Policies from Preschool to High School and Beyond (pp. 188-94)
Rucker C. Johnson
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Family Health, Children's Own Health, and Test Score Gaps (pp. 195-99)
Rodney J. Andrews and Trevon D. Logan
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Time Preference, Noncognitive Skills and Well Being across the Life Course: Do Noncognitive Skills Encourage Healthy Behavior? (pp. 200-204)
Ngina Chiteji
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (12.12 KB)

Adult Child Migration and the Health of Elderly Parents Left behind in Mexico (pp. 205-08)
Francisca M. Antman
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Human Capital, Work, and Outcomes

Investment in General Human Capital and Turnover Intention (pp. 209-13)
Colleen Flaherty Manchester
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Applicant Screening and Performance-Related Outcomes (pp. 214-18)
Fali Huang and Peter Cappelli
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Stop the Clock Policies and Career Success in Academia (pp. 219-23)
Colleen Flaherty Manchester, Lisa M. Leslie and Amit Kramer
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Low Skilled Immigration and Work-Fertility Tradeoffs among High Skilled US Natives (pp. 224-28)
Delia Furtado and Heinrich Hock
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New Directions in the Economic Analysis of Human Capital

The Market for College Graduates and the Worldwide Boom in Higher Education of Women (pp. 229-33)
Gary S. Becker, William H. J. Hubbard and Kevin M. Murphy
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The Education-Health Gradient (pp. 234-38)
Gabriella Conti, James Heckman and Sergio Urzua
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Inputs and Impacts in Charter Schools: KIPP Lynn (pp. 239-43)
Joshua D. Angrist, Susan M. Dynarski, Thomas J. Kane, Parag A. Pathak and Christopher R. Walters
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Human Capital and Imperfectly Informed Financial Markets (pp. 244-49)
Isaac Ehrlich and Jong Kook Shin
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Implicit Measurement of Teacher Quality

Using Performance on the Job to Inform Teacher Tenure Decisions (pp. 250-55)
Dan Goldhaber and Michael Hansen
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Using Student Performance Data to Identify Effective Classroom Practices (pp. 256-60)
John H. Tyler, Eric S. Taylor, Thomas J. Kane and Amy L. Wooten
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Subjective and Objective Evaluations of Teacher Effectiveness (pp. 261-66)
Jonah E. Rockoff and Cecilia Speroni
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Generalizations about Using Value-Added Measures of Teacher Quality (pp. 267-71)
Eric A. Hanushek and Steven G. Rivkin
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Research in Economic Education

Achievement Goals, Locus of Control, and Academic Success in Economics (pp. 272-76)
Lester Hadsell
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The Effectiveness of Peer Tutoring on Student Achievement at the University Level (pp. 277-82)
Vincent G. Munley, Eoghan Garvey and Michael J. McConnell
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (293.39 KB) | Online Appendix (68.55 KB)

Do Online Homework Tools Improve Student Results in Principles of Microeconomics Courses? (pp. 283-86)
William Lee, Richard H. Courtney and Steven J. Balassi
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The Efficacy of Collaborative Learning Recitation Sessions on Student Outcomes (pp. 287-91)
Kim P. Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez and James K. Self
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The Massachusetts Health Insurance Experiment: Early Experiences

How Sensitive Are Low Income Families to Health Plan Prices? (pp. 292-96)
David Chan and Jonathan Gruber
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Disentangling the Effects of Health Reform in Massachusetts: How Important Are the Special Provisions for Young Adults? (pp. 297-302)
Sharon K. Long, Alshadye Yemane and Karen Stockley
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Patient Cost Sharing in Low Income Populations (pp. 303-08)
Amitabh Chandra, Jonathan Gruber and Robin McKnight
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Migration and The US Labor Market

Culture and Intraracial Wage Inequality among America's African Diaspora (pp. 309-15)
Patrick L. Mason
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Mexican Immigrant Employment Outcomes over the Business Cycle (pp. 316-20)
Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
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The Effect of Migration on Wages: Evidence from a Natural Experiment (pp. 321-26)
Dakshina G. De Silva, Robert P. McComb, Young-Kyu Moh, Anita R. Schiller and Andres J. Vargas
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (19.45 MB)

Equilibrium Consequences of Search on the Job

Directed Search on the Job, Heterogeneity, and Aggregate Fluctuations (pp. 327-32)
Guido Menzio and Shouyong Shi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (69.67 KB)

Unemployment and Small Cap Returns: The Nexus (pp. 333-37)
Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay
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Wage Dispersion in the Search and Matching Model (pp. 338-42)
Dale T. Mortensen
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Job to Job Movements in a Simple Search Model (pp. 343-47)
Pietro Garibaldi and Espen R. Moen
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Gender, Jobs, Success, and Placement

Can Mentoring Help Female Assistant Professors? Interim Results from a Randomized Trial (pp. 348-52)
Francine D. Blau, Janet M. Currie, Rachel T. A. Croson and Donna K. Ginther
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Are There Gender Differences in the Job Mobility Patterns of Academic Economists? (pp. 353-57)
Christiana Hilmer and Michael Hilmer
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Female Hires and the Success of Start-Up Firms (pp. 358-61)
Andrea Weber and Christine Zulehner
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Gender Differences in Wealth at Retirement (pp. 362-67)
Urvi Neelakantan and Yunhee Chang
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Housing and Labor Markets

Dynamic Asset Pricing in a System of Local Housing Markets (pp. 368-72)
Patrick Bayer, Bryan Ellickson and Paul B. Ellickson
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Local Multipliers (pp. 373-77)
Enrico Moretti
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Changes in Transportation Infrastructure and Commuting Patterns in US Metropolitan Areas, 1960-2000 (pp. 378-82)
Nathaniel Baum-Snow
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Place Based Policies, Heterogeneity, and Agglomeration (pp. 383-87)
Patrick Kline
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Capital Flows, Contagion, and Regulatory Responses

Risk and Global Economic Architecture: Why Full Financial Integration May Be Undesirable (pp. 388-92)
Joseph E. Stiglitz
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Decoupling and Recoupling (pp. 393-97)
Anton Korinek, Agustin Roitman and Carlos A. Végh
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Credit Externalities: Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Implications (pp. 398-402)
Javier Bianchi
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Excessive Volatility in Capital Flows: A Pigouvian Taxation Approach (pp. 403-07)
Olivier Jeanne and Anton Korinek
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Intermediation in International Trade

Wholesalers and Retailers in US Trade (pp. 408-13)
Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding and Peter K. Schott
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Imports 'Я' Us: Retail Chains as Platforms for Developing-Country Imports (pp. 414-18)
Emek Basker and Pham Hoang Van
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Facts and Figures on Intermediated Trade (pp. 419-23)
Bernardo S. Blum, Sebastian Claro and Ignatius Horstmann
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Intermediation and Economic Integration (pp. 424-28)
Pol Antrás and Arnaud Costinot
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Trade and the Internal Organization of Firms

Trading Favors within Chinese Business Groups (pp. 429-33)
Raymond Fisman and Yongxiang Wang
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Does Product Market Competition Lead Firms to Decentralize? (pp. 434-38)
Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
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Offshoring and Wage Inequality: Using Occupational Licensing as a Shifter of Offshoring Costs (pp. 439-43)
Chiara Criscuolo and Luis Garicano
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Intrafirm Trade and Product Contractibility (pp. 444-48)
Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding and Peter K. Schott
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Trade and Climate Change

Can Openness Mitigate the Effects of Weather Shocks? Evidence from India's Famine Era (pp. 449-53)
Robin Burgess and Dave Donaldson
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Climate Shocks and Exports (pp. 454-59)
Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken
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Oil Monopoly and the Climate (pp. 460-64)
John Hassler, Per Krusell and Conny Olovsson
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Trade and Carbon Taxes (pp. 465-69)
Joshua Elliott, Ian Foster, Samuel Kortum, Todd Munson, Fernando Pérez Cervantes and David Weisbach
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Competition and Market Structure

'One Discriminatory Rent' or 'Double Jeopardy': Multicomponent Negotiation for New Car Purchases (pp. 470-74)
Meghan R. Busse and Jorge M. Silva-Risso
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (72.91 KB)

The Impact of Commissions on Home Sales in Greater Boston (pp. 475-79)
Panle Jia and Parag A. Pathak
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Investigating Income Effects in Scanner Data: Do Gasoline Prices Affect Grocery Purchases? (pp. 480-84)
Dora Gicheva, Justine Hastings and Sofia Villas-Boas
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An Individual Health Plan Exchange: Which Employees Would Benefit and Why? (pp. 485-89)
Leemore Dafny, Katherine Ho and Mauricio Varela
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (28.49 KB)

Mortgage Market and the Financial Crisis

What 'Triggers' Mortgage Default? (pp. 490-94)
Ronel Elul, Nicholas S. Souleles, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Dennis Glennon and Robert Hunt
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Learning to Cope: Voluntary Financial Education and Loan Performance during a Housing Crisis (pp. 495-500)
Sumit Agarwal, Gene Amromin, Itzhak Ben-David, Souphala Chomsisengphet and Douglas D. Evanoff
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (16.99 KB)

Issuer Credit Quality and the Price of Asset Backed Securities (pp. 501-05)
Oliver Faltin-Traeger, Kathleen W. Johnson and Christopher Mayer
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (122.23 KB)

Statistical Default Models and Incentives (pp. 506-10)
Uday Rajan, Amit Seru and Vikrant Vig
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (57.53 KB)

Mortgages

Consumer Confusion in the Mortgage Market: Evidence of Less Than a Perfectly Transparent and Competitive Market (pp. 511-15)
Susan E. Woodward and Robert E. Hall
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The Failure and Promise of Mandated Consumer Mortgage Disclosures: Evidence from Qualitative Interviews and a Controlled Experiment with Mortgage Borrowers (pp. 516-21)
James M. Lacko and Janis K. Pappalardo
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Asset Pricing: New Risk Channels

Affine Disagreement and Asset Pricing (pp. 522-26)
Hui Chen, Scott Joslin and Ngoc-Khanh Tran
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The Short and Long Run Benefits of Financial Integration (pp. 527-31)
Riccardo Colacito and Mariano M. Croce
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Growth Opportunities and Technology Shocks (pp. 532-36)
Leonid Kogan and Dimitris Papanikolaou
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (42.96 MB)

Confidence Risk and Asset Prices (pp. 537-41)
Ravi Bansal and Ivan Shaliastovich
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Long Run Risks and Asset Markets

Long Run Risks, the Macroeconomy, and Asset Prices (pp. 542-46)
Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku and Amir Yaron
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Long Run Risks, Credit Markets, and Financial Structure (pp. 547-51)
Harjoat S. Bhamra, Lars-Alexander Kuehn and Ilya A. Strebulaev
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Long Run Risk, the Wealth-Consumption Ratio, and the Temporal Pricing of Risk (pp. 552-56)
Ralph S. J. Koijen, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Adrien Verdelhan
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (250.30 KB)

An Equilibrium Term Structure Model with Recursive Preferences (pp. 557-61)
Anh Le and Kenneth J. Singleton
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International Financial Markets

Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar (pp. 562-67)
Charles Engel and Kenneth D. West
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Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes (pp. 568-72)
Jeffrey Frankel and Daniel Xie
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Growth in a Time of Debt (pp. 573-78)
Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
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Demand and Supply for Government Bonds

Interest Rate Risk in Credit Markets (pp. 579-84)
Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider
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Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market (pp. 585-90)
Robin Greenwood and Dimitri Vayanos
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Repo Market Effects of the Term Securities Lending Facility (pp. 591-96)
Michael J. Fleming, Warren B. Hrung and Frank M. Keane
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Designing Online Advertising Markets

Optimal Auction Design and Equilibrium Selection in Sponsored Search Auctions (pp. 597-602)
Benjamin Edelman and Michael Schwarz
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (121.55 KB)

Online Advertising: Heterogeneity and Conflation in Market Design (pp. 603-07)
Jonathan Levin and Paul Milgrom
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The Impact of Targeting Technology on Advertising Markets and Media Competition (pp. 608-13)
Susan Athey and Joshua S. Gans
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Field Experiments in Firms

Wage Subsidies for Microenterprises (pp. 614-18)
Suresh de Mel, David McKenzie and Christopher Woodruff
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Why Do Firms in Developing Countries Have Low Productivity? (pp. 619-23)
Nicholas Bloom, Aprajit Mahajan, David McKenzie and John Roberts
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Self-Control and the Development of Work Arrangements (pp. 624-28)
Supreet Kaur, Michael Kremer and Sendhil Mullainathan
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What Capital Is Missing in Developing Countries? (pp. 629-33)
Miriam Bruhn, Dean Karlan and Antoinette Schoar
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Proceedings

Minutes of the Annual Meeting

Minutes of the Annual Meeting: Atlanta, GA, January 4, 2010 (pp. 637-38)
John J. Siegfried
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Reports

Report of the Secretary for 2009 (pp. 639-42)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Treasurer (pp. 643-46)
John J. Siegfried
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American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (pp. 647-50)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried
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Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Chicago, IL, April 24, 2009 (pp. 653-59)
John J. Siegfried
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)

Minutes of the Meeting of the Executive Committee: Atlanta, GA, January 2, 2010 (pp. 660-66)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Review (pp. 667-76)
Robert A. Moffitt
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 678-79)
Roger H. Gordon
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 680-81)
David Autor
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (pp. 682-84)
Esther Duflo
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (pp. 685-87)
Alan J. Auerbach
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (pp. 688-91)
Steven J. Davis
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (pp. 692-95)
Andrew Postlewaite
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Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists (pp. 696-98)
John J. Siegfried
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Report of the Committee on Economic Education for 2009 (pp. 699-703)
Michael Watts
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Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession 2009 (pp. 704-09)
Barbara M. Fraumeni
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Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession: Report of Committee Activities for the 2009 Calendar Year (pp. 710-12)
Ngina Chiteji
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American Economic Association Committee on Statistics (AEAStat): Annual Report--2009 (pp. 713-14)
Matthew D. Shapiro
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Committee on Government Relations (pp. 715-17)
Katherine G. Abraham
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Report of the Ad Hoc Search Committee for the American Economic Review Editor (page 718)
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American Economic Review


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