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Project Citation: 

Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S. Replication data for: From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2011. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-11. https://doi.org/10.3886/E112444V1

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both "world" aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have "hidden domestic debts" that exceed the better documented levels of external debt. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, H63, N20)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:  View help for JEL Classification
      E44 Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
      F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
      F44 International Business Cycles
      G01 Financial Crises
      H63 National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
      N20 Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative


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