Replication data for: Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Olivier Coibion; Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Version: View help for Version V1
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20130306_replication_files | 10/12/2019 07:29:PM | ||
LICENSE.txt | text/plain | 14.6 KB | 10/12/2019 03:29:PM |
Project Citation:
Coibion, Olivier, and Gorodnichenko, Yuriy. Replication data for: Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2015. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114080V1
Project Description
Summary:
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We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period. (JEL D84, E24, E32, E52, E58, Q35)
Scope of Project
JEL Classification:
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D84 Expectations; Speculations
E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 Monetary Policy
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources
D84 Expectations; Speculations
E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 Monetary Policy
E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources
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