Replication data for: Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation

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Project Citation:

Coibion, Olivier, and Gorodnichenko, Yuriy. Replication data for: Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation. Nashville, TN: American Economic Association [publisher], 2015. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-12. https://doi.org/10.3886/E114080V1

Project Description

Summary: We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period. (JEL D84, E24, E32, E52, E58, Q35)

Scope of Project

JEL Classification:
      D84 Expectations; Speculations
      E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
      E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
      E52 Monetary Policy
      E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
      Q35 Hydrocarbon Resources

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Published Versions

V1 [2019-10-12]

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