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Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?

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L Kilian… - Journal of International Economics, 2003 - Elsevier
Recent empirical evidence suggests that the time series behavior of the real exchange rate
is well approximated by a nonlinear, exponential smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR)
model. This nonlinearity helps resolve a number of puzzles concerning the persistence ...
Cited by 574 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 61 versions

Small-sample confidence intervals for impulse response functions

[PDF] from wisc.edu
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L Kilian - Review of economics and statistics, 1998 - MIT Press
Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals explicitly account for the bias and skewness of
the small-sample distribution of the impulse response estimator, while retaining asymptotic
validity in stationary autoregressions. Monte Carlo simulations for a wide range of ...
Cited by 437 - Related articles - All 11 versions

Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s

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R Barsky… - 2004 - nber.org
Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive
inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the
arguments supporting such views. First, we highlight some of the conceptual difficulties in ...
Cited by 403 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 23 versions

Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market

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L Kilian - The American Economic Review, 2009 - JSTOR
A common approach in both empirical and theoretical work on oil price shocks is to evaluate
the response of macroeconomic aggregates to exogenous changes in the price of oil.
Implicit in this approach is a thought experiment, in which one varies the price of oil, while ...
Cited by 396 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 47 versions

Exchange rates and monetary Fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon regressions?

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian - 1998 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Long-horizon regression tests are widely used in empirical finance, despite
evidence of severe size distortions. This paper introduces a new bootstrap method for small-
sample inference in long-horizon regressions. A Monte Carlo study shows that this ...
Cited by 281 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 23 versions

In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: Which one should we use?

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A Inoue… - Econometric Reviews, 2005 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not
guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication
that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, ...
Cited by 272 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 28 versions

[PDF] Do we really know that oil caused the great stagflation? A monetary alternative

[PDF] from nber.org
RB Barsky… - 2002 - nber.org
There continues to be considerable interest, both among policymakers and in the popular
press, in the origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence. The traditional
explanation of the stagflation of the 1970s found in intermediate textbooks is an adverse ...
Cited by 271 - Related articles - View as HTML - Library Search - BL Direct - All 14 versions

Recent developments in bootstrapping time series

[PDF] from federalreserve.gov
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J Berkowitz… - Econometric Reviews, 2000 - Taylor & Francis
In recent years, many exciting developments have taken place in bootstrapping time series.
Advances have proceeded along a number of distinct paths. Some authors have focused on
adapting the familiar residual-based resampling approach of Efron (1979) to finite-order ...
Cited by 211 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 16 versions

Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?

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L Kilian - The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008 - MIT Press
Abstract The paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing,
the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art
estimates. It is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during ...
Cited by 213 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 59 versions

The economic effects of energy price shocks

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian - 2008 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the
US economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the US and
evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy ...
Cited by 212 - Related articles - All 27 versions

Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

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S Gonçalves… - Journal of Econometrics, 2004 - Elsevier
Conditional heteroskedasticity is an important feature of many macroeconomic and financial
time series. Standard residual-based bootstrap procedures for dynamic regression models
treat the regression error as iid These procedures are invalid in the presence of ...
Cited by 150 - Related articles - Library Search - All 31 versions

Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate

[PDF] from umich.edu
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M Caner… - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001 - Elsevier
Tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an
increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international
finance. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity ...
Cited by 135 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 14 versions

Unit root tests are useful for selecting forecasting models

[TXT] from nyu.edu
FX Diebold… - 1999 - nber.org
We study the usefulness of root tests as diagnostic tools for selecting forecasting models.
Difference stationary and trend stationary models of economic and financial time series often
imply very different predictions, so deciding which model to use is tremendously important ...
Cited by 111 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 24 versions

On the selection of forecasting models

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A Inoue… - Journal of Econometrics, 2006 - Elsevier
It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by
their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts.
Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare ...
Cited by 103 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 24 versions

THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SHOCKS ON THE US STOCK MARKET*

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L Kilian… - International Economic Review, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
It is shown that the reaction of US real stock returns to an oil price shock differs greatly depending
on whether the change in the price of oil is driven by demand or supply shocks in the oil
market. The demand and supply shocks driving the global crude oil market jointly account ...
Cited by 100 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 16 versions

A comparison of the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation in the G7 countries

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L Kilian - Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract A comparison of the effects of exogenous shocks to global crude oil production on
seven major industrialized economies suggests a fair degree of similarity in the real growth
responses. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in ...
Cited by 87 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 9 versions

Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications

[PDF] from upenn.edu
FX Diebold… - 1997 - nber.org
We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run
forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be
tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, ...
Cited by 85 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 30 versions

What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?

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R Alquist… - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
Despite their widespread use as predictors of the spot price of oil, oil futures prices tend to
be less accurate in the mean-squared prediction error sense than no-change forecasts. This
result is driven by the variability of the futures price about the spot price, as captured by ...
Cited by 91 - Related articles - Library Search - All 26 versions

Bootstrapping autoregressive processes with possible unit roots

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A Inoue… - Econometrica, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
Several authors have investigated the asymptotic properties of the standard residual-based
bootstrap method for unrestricted autoregressions in the random walk model (see Basawa et
al.(1991a), Datta (1996)). In contrast, there are no theoretical results for the properties of ...
Cited by 72 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 19 versions

Impulse response analysis in vector autoregressions with unknown lag order

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian - 2001 - deepblue.lib.umich.edu
We show that the effects of overfitting and underfitting a vector autoregressive (VAR) model
are strongly asymmetric for VAR summary statistics involving higher-order dynamics (such
as impulse response functions, variance decompositions, or long-run forecasts). Underfit ...
Cited by 64 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - BL Direct - All 9 versions

Quantifying the uncertainty about the half‐life of deviations from PPP

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L Kilian… - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
We propose a Bayesian framework in which the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations
from purchasing power parity can be quantified. Based on the responses to a survey study,
we propose a prior probability distribution for the half-life under the recent float intended to ...
Cited by 61 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 10 versions

Finite-sample properties of percentile and percentile-t bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse responses

Full text - MIT Libraries
L Kilian - Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999 - MIT Press
A Monte Carlo analysis of the coverage accuracy and average length of alternative
bootstrap confidence intervals for impulse-response estimators shows that the accuracy of
equal-tailed and symmetric percentile-t intervals can be poor and erratic in small samples ...
Cited by 61 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality

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L Kilian - Econometric Reviews, 1998 - Taylor & Francis
Monte Carlo evidence shows that in structural VAR models with fat-tailed or skewed
innovations the coverage accuracy of impulse response confidence intervals may deterorate
substantially compared to the same model with Gaussian innovations. Empirical evidance ...
Cited by 51 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 5 versions

[PDF] How useful is bagging in forecasting economic time series? A case study of US consumer price inflation

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A Inoue… - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2008 - ASA
This article focuses on the widely studied question of whether the inclusion of indicators of
real economic activity lowers the prediction mean squared error of forecasting models of US
consumer price inflation. We propose three variants of the bagging algorithm specifically ...
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A practitioner's guide to lag order selection for VAR impulse response analysis

V Ivanov… - Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2005 - ideas.repec.org
< p> It is common in empirical macroeconomics to fit vector autoregressive (VAR) models to
construct estimates of impulse responses. An important preliminary step in impulse
response analysis is the selection of the VAR lag order. In this paper, we compare the six ...
Cited by 49 - Related articles - Cached - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 9 versions

How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?

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P Edelstein… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009 - Elsevier
There is growing evidence that the primary effect of energy price shocks on the US economy
involves a reduction in consumer spending. We quantify the direct effect on real
consumption of unanticipated changes in discretionary income, shifts in precautionary ...
Cited by 50 - Related articles - All 5 versions

Retail energy prices and consumer expenditures

[PDF] from umich.edu
P Edelstein… - Ann Arbor, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: In the absence of a major disruption in spending by consumers and firms, the
effects of energy price shocks on the economy will be small. In this paper, we quantify the
direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income,(2) ...
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The response of business fixed investment to changes in energy prices: A test of some hypotheses about the transmission of energy price shocks

[PDF] from umich.edu
P Edelstein… - Ann Arbor, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Changes in firms' investment expenditures are considered one of the primary
channels through which energy price shocks are transmitted to the economy. It is widely
believed that the response of business fixed investment to energy price increases differs ...
Cited by 42 - Related articles - Library Search - All 9 versions

Accounting for lag order uncertainty in autoregressions: the endogenous lag order bootstrap algorithm

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L Kilian - Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1998 - Wiley Online Library
Conventional asymptotic and bootstrap methods for finite-order autoregressive models
condition on the estimated lag order of the model as though it were known to be the true lag
order. Even if the order is estimated correctly, this procedure ignores the sampling ...
Cited by 40 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 2 versions

Oil shocks and external balances

[PDF] from umich.edu
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L Kilian, A Rebucci… - Journal of International Economics, 2009 - Elsevier
We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil
market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including
the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and ...
Cited by 42 - Related articles - All 11 versions

The role of inventories and speculative trading in the global market for crude oil

[PDF] from frbsf.org
L Kilian… - Ann Arbor, 2010 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time
explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow
demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified ...
Cited by 46 - Related articles - Library Search - All 26 versions

Do energy prices respond to US macroeconomic news? A test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices

[PDF] from federalreserve.gov
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L Kilian… - Review of Economics and Statistics, 2011 - MIT Press
Abstract We propose a formal test of the hypothesis that energy prices are predetermined
with respect to US macroeconomic aggregates. The test is based on regressing changes in
daily energy prices on daily news from US macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide ...
Cited by 40 - Related articles - Library Search - All 16 versions

Residual-based tests for normality in autoregressions: Asymptotic theory and simulation evidence

L Kilian… - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2000 - JSTOR
Existing results for the asymptotic validity of the Jarque-Bera test in vector autoregressive
(VAR) models assume stationarity. In applied work, however, researchers often work with
possibly integrated and cointegrated process. We prove the asymptotic validity of the ...
Cited by 38 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - BL Direct - All 8 versions

Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models*

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A Inoue… - International Economic Review, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
It is common to conduct bootstrap inference in vector autoregressive (VAR) models based
on the assumption that the underlying data-generating process is of finite-lag order. This
assumption is implausible in practice. We establish the asymptotic validity of the residual- ...
Cited by 32 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 11 versions

Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?

B Hicks… - Ann Arbor, 2009 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Recently developed structural models of the global crude oil market imply that the
surge in the real price of oil between mid-2003 and mid-2008 was driven by repeated
positive shocks to the demand for all industrial commodities, reflecting unexpectedly high ...
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Are the responses of the US economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?

[PDF] from bc.edu
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L Kilian… - Quantitative Economics, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
How much does real gross domestic product (GDP) respond to unanticipated changes in the
real price of oil? Commonly used censored oil price vector autoregressive models suggest a
substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil ...
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The effects of exogenous oil supply shocks on output and inflation: Evidence from the G7 countries

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian - 2006 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Using state-of-the-art methods, this study estimates and compares the effects of
exogenous shocks to global oil production on seven major industrialized economies. The
main findings are:(1) There is a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses. An ...
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Asymptotic and bootstrap inference for AR (∞) processes with conditional heteroskedasticity

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S Gonçalves… - Econometric Reviews, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
The main contribution of this paper is a proof of the asymptotic validity of the application of
the bootstrap to AR (∞) processes with unmodelled conditional heteroskedasticity. We first
derive the asymptotic properties of the least-squares estimator of the autoregressive sieve ...
Cited by 28 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 12 versions

Why agnostic sign restrictions are not enough: Understanding the dynamics of oil market VAR models

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian… - 2009 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Sign restrictions on the responses generated by structural vector autoregressive
models have been proposed as an alternative approach to the use of exclusion restrictions
on the impact multiplier matrix. In recent years such models have been increasingly used ...
Cited by 29 - Related articles - All 9 versions

How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?

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L Kilian… - Economics Letters, 2000 - Elsevier
We study the finite-sample accuracy and average length of pointwise confidence intervals
for impulse responses in vector autoregressive models with many variables and many lags.
Our results complement existing simulation evidence based on much simpler bivariate ...
Cited by 26 - Related articles - All 10 versions

[BOOK] Oil shocks and external balances

[PDF] from socionet.ru
L Kilian, A Rebucci… - 2007 - books.google.com
This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on
several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade
balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. ...
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A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s

[PDF] from umich.edu
R Barsky… - 2000 - nber.org
The origins of stagflation and the possibility of its recurrence continue to be an important
concern among policymakers and in the popular press. It is common to associate the origins
of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s with the two major oil price increases of 1973/74 and ...
Cited by 22 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 24 versions

[BOOK] Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of energy price shocks

[PDF] from nber.org
L Kilian, RJ Vigfusson… - 2009 - nber.org
Abstract: A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on
macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We
show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of ...
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Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions

[PDF] from umich.edu
LW Davis… - 2009 - nber.org
Several policy makers and economists have proposed the adoption of a carbon tax in the
United States. It is widely recognized that such a tax in practice must take the form of a tax on
the consumption of energy products such as gasoline. Although a large existing literature ...
Cited by 21 - Related articles - Library Search - All 16 versions

Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?*

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian… - The Economic Journal, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
A common view in the literature is that systematic monetary policy responses to the inflation
caused by oil price shocks have been an important source of aggregate fluctuations in the
US economy. Earlier empirical evidence in support of such a link was based on ...
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Unit roots, trend breaks, and transitory dynamics: A macroeconomic perspective

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L Kilian… - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002 - Cambridge Univ Press
It is common to interpret rejections of the unit-root null hypothesis in favor of a trend
stationary process with possible trend breaks as evidence that the data are better
characterized as stationary about a broken trend. This interpretation is valid only if the ...
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The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan

[PDF] from simonemanganelli.org
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L Kilian… - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2008 - Wiley Online Library
1. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the European Central Bank (ECB) or its staff. We thank two anonymous referees, the editor,
Chris House, and Barbara Rossi for helpful comments.
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Quantifying the Risk of Deflation

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L Kilian… - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
We propose formal and quantitative measures of the risk that future inflation will be
excessively high or low relative to the range preferred by a private sector agent. Unlike
alternative measures of risk, our measures are designed to make explicit the dependence ...
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Forecasting the price of oil

[PDF] from socionet.ru
R Alquist, L Kilian… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude
oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about
the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real or ...
Cited by 19 - Related articles - All 21 versions

[PDF] Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the US Retail Gasoline Market

[PDF] from umich.edu
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L Kilian - Energy Journal, 2010 - www-personal.umich.edu
Abstract: The distinction between the price of gasoline in the US and the price of crude oil in
global markets is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher energy prices. This
paper makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply shocks in these two ...
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[PDF] The Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data

[PDF] from nd.edu
L Kilian… - Michigan Department of Economics, Working Paper, …, 2006 - nd.edu
Abstract This paper studies the implications of unexpected changes in the real price of
gasoline on the prices of used automobiles using an asset pricing model of car valuation.
We employ a unique data set which combines fuel economy estimates of a large variety of ...
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Oil price shocks, monetary policy and stagflation

[PDF] from uni-muenster.de
L Kilian - Ann Arbor, 2009 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: One of the central questions in recent macroeconomic history is to what extent
monetary policy as opposed to oil price shocks contributed to the stagflation of the 1970s.
Understanding what went wrong in the 1970s is the key to learning from the past. One ...
Cited by 18 - Related articles - Library Search - All 26 versions

A practitioner's guide to lag-order selection for vector autoregressions

V Ivanov… - CEPR Discussion Papers, 2001 - ideas.repec.org
An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is to select the vector
autoregressive (VAR) lag order from the data, yet little is known about the implications of
alternative lag order selection criteria for the accuracy of the impulse response estimates. ...
Cited by 14 - Related articles - Cached - Library Search - BL Direct - All 6 versions

[PDF] Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: Evidence and implications for applied work

[PDF] from econstor.eu
M Caner… - Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, 1999 - econstor.eu
Abstract It is common in applied econometrics to test the null hypothesis of a level-stationary
process against the alternative of a unit root process. We show that the use of conventional
asymptotic critical values for the stationarity tests of Kwiatkowski et al.(1992) and ...
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The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks

[PDF] from uni-mannheim.de
L Kilian… - 2003 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain
inflation within pre-specified bounds. We develop formal tools of risk management that may
be used to quantify and forecast the risks of failing to attain that objective. We illustrate the ...
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[PDF] Oil price volatility: Origins and effects

[PDF] from wto.org
L Kilian - OMC, document de travail n ERSD‑2010‑02, 2009 - wto.org
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In recent years, our understanding of the nature of energy price
shocks and their effects on the economy has evolved dramatically. Only a few years ago, the
prevailing view in the literature was that at least the major crude oil prices increases were ...
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Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions

LW Davis… - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
Recently the proposal has been made to raise gasoline taxes in the United States to curb
carbon emissions. The existing literature on the sensitivity of gasoline consumption to
changes in price may not be appropriate for evaluating the effectiveness of such a tax. ...
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The continuity of the limit distribution in the parameter of interest is not essential for the validity of the bootstrap

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A Inoue… - Econometric Theory, 2003 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract It is well known that the unrestricted bootstrap estimator of the slope parameter in
the random walk model without drift converges to a random distribution. This bootstrap
failure is commonly attributed to the discontinuity of the limit distribution of the least- ...
Cited by 11 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 11 versions

Do actions speak louder than words? household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data

[PDF] from umich.edu
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A Inoue, L Kilian… - Journal of Money, Credit and …, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis,
yet it is not clear how accurately households are able to articulate their expectations in
survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' ...
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[BOOK] Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian, RJ Vigfusson… - 2011 - Cambridge Univ Press
It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks to real
output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of
asymmetry, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric transmission ...
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[PDF] Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil And The US Retail Gasoline Market

[PDF] from douglaslaxton.org
L Kilian - 2008 - douglaslaxton.org
Abstract: There is an important distinction between the price of gasoline in the US and the
price of crude oil in global markets that is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher
energy prices. This paper makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply ...
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[PDF] Comment on 'Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08'by James D. Hamilton

[PDF] from umich.edu
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L Kilian - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009 - www-personal.umich.edu
James Hamilton has provided an insightful analysis of the latest oil price shock. He makes
the case that we should view this episode not merely as a market aberration, but as a
systemic and long-term problem that is likely to resurface, once the global economy ...
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[CITATION] 'Money, Stagflation and Oil Prices: A Re-Interpretation

R Barsky… - Manuscript, November, 1998
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Real-time forecasts of the real price of oil

[PDF] from ets.net
C Baumeister… - 2011 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1–2010.12
that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We
document that revisions of the data typically represent news, and we introduce ...
Cited by 8 - Related articles - Library Search - All 28 versions

[CITATION] Is there a trend break in US GNP

L Kilian… - A macroeconomic perspective. Federal Reserve Bank …, 1998
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Frequentist inference in weakly identified DSGE models

[PDF] from frb.org
P Guerron-Quintana, A Inoue… - Ann Arbor, 2009 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We show that in weakly identified models (1) the posterior mode will not be a
consistent estimator of the true parameter vector,(2) the posterior distribution will not be
Gaussian even asymptotically, and (3) Bayesian credible sets and frequentist confidence ...
Cited by 7 - Related articles - Library Search - All 14 versions

[BOOK] Is There a Trend Break in US GNP?: A Macroeconomic Perspective

[PDF] from frb.org
L Kilian, LE Ohanian… - 1998 - mpls.frb.org
ABSTRACT Unit root tests against trend break alternatives are based on the premise that the
dating of the trend breaks coincides with major economic events with permanent effects on
economic activity, such as wars and depressions. Standard economic theory, however, ...
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The allocative cost of price ceilings in the US residential market for natural gas

[PDF] from umich.edu
LW Davis… - 2008 - nber.org
A direct consequence of imposing a ceiling on the price of a good for which secondary
markets do not exist, is that, when there is excess demand, the good will not be allocated to
the buyers who value it the most. The resulting allocative cost has been discussed in the ...
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[BOOK] Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors

[PDF] from cepr.eu
L Kilian, T Zha… - 1999 - cepr.eu
ABSTRACT: The half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) plays a central
role in the ongoing debate about the ability of macroeconomic models to account for the time
series behavior of the real exchange rate. The main contribution of this paper is a general ...
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Comment

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Full text - MIT Libraries
L Kilian - Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
Empirical adaptations of the Keynesian model date back to the early days of econometrics.
The traditional partialequilibrium Keynesian model was devoid of dynamics. It took partial
adjustment and adaptive expectations models to make these inherently static models ...
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[BOOK] Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models

[PDF] from ox.ac.uk
A Inoue, L Kilian… - 2011 - inet.ox.ac.uk
Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has
led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by
restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these ...
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Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR (< i> Infinite</i>) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity

S Gonçalves… - CIRANO Working Papers, 2003 - ideas.repec.org
The main contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we derive the consistency and
asymptotic normality of the estimated autoregressive sieve parameters when the data are
generated by a stationary linear process with martingale difference errors that are possibly ...
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Residual-based bootstrap tests for normality in autoregressions

L Kilian… - Papers, 1997 - ideas.repec.org
-It is well known that the asymptotic distribution of residual-based test statistics for normality
may provide a poor approximation in finite samples. We propose the use of bootstrap critical
values to improve small-sample performance and compare the accuracy of the asymptotic ...
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[CITATION] An endogenous lag order bootstrap algorithm with an application to impulse response analysis

L Kilian - manuscript, Department of Economics, University of …, 1996
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[PDF] How reliable are VAR estimates of responses to monetary policy shocks?

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L Kilian… - Ann Arbor, 1998 - Citeseer
Abstract: We study the reliability of the estimated responses of major economic aggregates
to monetary policy shocks. We investigate the bias of the estimated impulse response
functions and the reliability of their qualitative features such as their sign and shape and ...
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Data-driven nonparametric spectral density estimators for economic time series: A Monte Carlo study

Full text - MIT Libraries
I Birgean… - Econometric Reviews, 2002 - Taylor & Francis
ABSTRACT Spectral analysis at frequencies other than zero plays an increasingly important
role in econometrics. A number of alternative automated data-driven procedures for
nonparametric spectral density estimation have been suggested in the literature, but little ...
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Structural Vector Autoregressions

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L Kilian - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models were introduced in 1980 as an
alternative to traditional large-scale macroeconometric models when the theoretical and
empirical support for these models became increasingly doubtful. Initial applications of the ...
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[CITATION] In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?, forthcoming Econometric Reviews

A Inoue… - 2004
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Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate

M Caner… - CEPR Discussion Papers, 2000 - ideas.repec.org
Tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity against the unit root alternative play an
increasingly important role in empirical work in macroeconomics and in international
finance. We show that the use of conventional asymptotic critical values for stationarity ...
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The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the US Residential Market for Natural Gas

Full text - MIT Libraries
LW Davis… - The Journal of Political Economy, 2011 - JSTOR
A direct consequence of restricting the price of a good for which secondary markets do not
exist is that, in the presence of excess demand, the good will not be allocated to the buyers
who value it the most. We demonstrate the empirical importance of this allocative cost for ...
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[CITATION] “Do Energy Prices Respond to US Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices,” forthcoming in The Review of …

L Kilian… - 2010
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Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?

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L Kilian… - 2009 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: It is well documented that the small-sample accuracy of asymptotic and bootstrap
approximations to the pointwise distribution of VAR impulse response estimators is
undermined by the estimator s bias. A natural conjecture is that impulse response ...
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The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas

[PDF] from duke.edu
LW Davis… - Ann Arbor, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Following a Supreme Court decision in 1954, natural gas markets in the US were
subject to 35 years of intensive federal regulation. Several studies have measured the
deadweight loss from the price ceilings that were imposed during this period. This paper ...
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[PDF] Nonlinearities in the Oil-Output Relationship

[PDF] from umich.edu
L Kilian… - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2010 - www-personal.umich.edu
Abstract: It is customary to suggest that the asymmetry in the transmission of oil price shocks
to real output is well established. Much of the empirical work cited as being in support of
asymmetries, however, has not directly tested the hypothesis of an asymmetric ...
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[CITATION] forthcoming.“Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market.”

L Kilian - American Economic Review
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[CITATION] vThe Effects of Real Gasoline Prices on Automobile Demand: A Structural Analysis Using Micro Data, wWorking Paper

L Kilian… - University of Michigan (April), 2006
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[CITATION] forthcoming,“What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?”

R Alquist… - Journal of Applied Econometrics
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In-Sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?

L Kilian… - 2002 - ideas.repec.org
It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee
significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-
sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper we ...
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[CITATION] Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of oil price shocks

L Kilian… - Unpublished Paper, University of Michigan, 2009
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[CITATION] Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, edited by BS Bernanke and K …

RB Barsky… - 2002
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[CITATION] Oil Prices and teh Business Cycle" presentation at Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Shocks

K Lutz - Arlington, Virginia, February, 2005
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[CITATION] VWhy Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models

L Kilian… - V Journal of the European Economic Association, …, 2011
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[CITATION] What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures? CEPR Discussion Paper 6548

R Alquist… - 2008
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[CITATION] Forthcoming.“The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the US Stock Market.”

L Kilian… - International Economic Review
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[CITATION] Forecasting the Price of Oil

A Ron, L Kilian… - International Finance Discussion Paper, 2011
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[CITATION] Forthcoming. How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation

A Inoue… - Journal of the American Statistical Association
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[CITATION] VThe Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil

L Kilian… - 2010 - V Mimeo, University of Michigan
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[CITATION] Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s

B Robert… - NBER Working Paper, 2004
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[CITATION] Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks

Full text - MIT Libraries
L Kilian - CESifo Forum, 2006 - econpapers.repec.org
... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks.
Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks. Lutz Kilian (). CESifo Forum,
2006, vol. 7, issue 2, pages 21-27. Keywords: Erdöl ...
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[CITATION] Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications

L Kilian, FX Diebold… - 1997 - opengrey.eu
Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications. Lutz Kilian, Francis X Diebold,
University of Pennsylvania. Institute for Economic Research University of Pennsylvania, 1997.
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