 | Professor of Demography and Jordan Family Professor of Economics, University of … Verified email at demog.berkeley.edu Cited by 7761 |
RD Lee… - Journal of the American statistical association, 1992 - JSTOR
Page 1. Modeling and Forecasting US Mortality RONALD D. LEE and LAWRENCE R.
CARTER* Time series methods are used to make long-run forecasts, with confidence
intervals, of age-specific mortality in the United States from 1990 to 2065. ...
DF Alwin, RL Cohen… - 1991 - books.google.com
In this book we present the third in a series of studies of the sociopolitical orientations of a
group of women who attended Bennington College in the 1930s and 1940s. The first in the
series, published by Theodore M. Newcomb as Personality and Social Change: Attitude ...
R Lee - The journal of economic perspectives, 2003 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: The global demographic transition began around 1800 in Europe with declining
mortality followed by declining fertility, trends which spread around the world and continue in
this century. At the aggregate level, population size greatly increased, growth accelerated ...
R Lee - North american actuarial journal, 2000 - soa.org
ABSTRACT In 1992, Lee and Carter published a new method for long-run forecasts of the
level and age pattern of mortality, based on a combination of statistical time series methods
and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. The method ...
R Lee… - Demography, 2001 - Springer
Abstract Lee and Carter (LC) published a new statistical method for forecasting mortality in
1992. This paper examines its actual and hypothetical forecast errors, and compares them
with Social Security forecast errors. Hypothetical historical projections suggest that LC ...
RD Lee - Proceedings of the National Academy of …, 2003 - National Acad Sciences
RD Lee - Demography of aging, 1994 - books.google.com
Page 20. THE FORMAL DEMOGRAPHY OF POPULATION AGING, TRANSFERS,
AND THE 8 ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE 2 The Formal Demography of Population
Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle Ronald D. Lee ...
[CITATION] Short-term variation: Vital rates, prices, and weather
R Lee - The population history of England, 1981
RD Lee - Demography, 1987 - Springer
Page 1. DEMOGRAPHY© Volume 24, Number 4 November 1987 POPULATION DYNAMICS
OF HUMANS AND OTHER ANIMALS Ronald D. Lee Graduate Group in Demography and
Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 ...
JB Baty… - Journal of Management Information Systems, 1995 - JSTOR
Page 1. InterShop: Enhancing the Vendor/Customer Dialectic in Electronic Shopping
JAMES B. BATY, II, AND RONALD M. LEE James B. Baty, ii, is Vice President of
Research and Development for Environmental Data Services ...
RD Lee - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1974 - JSTOR
Page 1. Forecasting Births in Post-Transition Populations: Stochastic Renewal with
Serially Correlated Fertility RONALD DEMOS LEE* Demographic forecasting
techniques fail with post-transition popula- tions dominated by ...
RD Lee - Population and Development Review, 1998 - JSTOR
Page 1. Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting RONALD D. LEE ON
AVERAGE people live long lives, have a long lag between birth and child- bearing, and
experience demographic rates with highly regular age pat- terns. ...
R Lee - Demography, 1974 - Springer
Abstract This paper analyzes the pattern of fluctuations of births in an age-structured
population whose growth is subject to environmental or economic constraint. It synthesizes
the traditional demographic analysis of age-structured renewal with constant vital rates ...
A Mason,
R Lee, AC Tung, MS Lai… - 2006 - nber.org
In all societies intergenerational transfers are large and have an important influence on
inequality and growth. The development of each generation of youth depends on the
resources that it receives from productive members of society for health, education, and ...
J Zhang,
J Zhang… - Journal of Public Economics, 2001 - Elsevier
This paper examines the impacts of mortality decline on long-run growth in a dynastic family,
two-sector growth model with social security. A rise in longevity has direct effects on fertility,
human capital investment, and growth, as well as indirect effects through increasing ...
RD Lee - Population Studies, 1980 - Taylor & Francis
... t Ronald Lee is currently in the Graduate Group in Demography at the University of California
at Berkeley; this paper was written while he was at the Department of Economics and
Population Studies Center of the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. ...
R Lee, A Mason… - Population and Development Review, 2000 - JSTOR
MIGHT HE DEMOGRAPHIC transition from high fertility and mortality to low fertility and
mortality cause an increase in saving rates and a rise in capital per worker? A large
literature addresses this important question; and after a period of neglect, new but ...
R Lee… - Demographic change and fiscal policy, 2001 - books.google.com
Is population forecasting different from other kinds of forecasting, that it should warrant its
own special methods and its own special discussion? In some important respects it is; in
particular, long-term demographic forecasts many decades into the future may contain ...
R Lee… - The American Economic Review, 2000 - JSTOR
Population aging and rising health costs will cause dramatic increases in federal
expenditures somtie decades from now (Lee et al., 1999). Rising immigration to the United
States may help avert this future crisis by slowing population aging and helping to pay for ...
A Mason… - Genus, 2006 - JSTOR
Molti paesi del terzo mondo fronteggeranno un rapido invecchiamento della popolazione
nei prossimi decenni, il che pone due grandi sfide: sostenere una intensa crescita
economica e mettere su un sistema efficace di sostegno per gli anziani. La transizione ...
R Lee - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1973 - qje.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract I. Introduction, 581.—II. Data, 583.—III. Effects of population change, 587.—IV.
Causes of population change, 590.—V. Econometrics: testing and estimation, 594.—VI. The
estimated model: comparative statics, 599.—VII. The estimated model: dynamics, 600.— ...
R Lee… - The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1999 - JSTOR
B arely ten years from now, the leading edge of the baby boom generation will turn 65,
ushering in a sustained aging of the US population. Many are concerned that through the
first half of the 21st century, the federal government will stagger under the weight of these ...
RL Cohen - 1986 - books.google.com
This work contains the views of social scientists who address the theoretical and practical
handling of concepts of justice and injustice, possible agendas for future work, and how
contributions from other branches of the social sciences might aid in this future work. ...
RD Lee - International Journal of Forecasting, 1993 - Elsevier
PR Galloway, EA Hammel… - Population Studies, 1994 - Taylor & Francis
Page 1. Population Studies, 48 (1994), 135-158 Printed in Great Britain Fertility Decline
in Prussia, 1875-1910" A Pooled Cross-Section Time Series Analysis PATRICK R.
GALLOWAY, EUGENE A. HAMMEL AND RONALD D. LEE* ...
[CITATION] Justice in social relations
HW Bierhoff, RL Cohen… - 1986 - Plenum Pub Corp
RM Lee - Decision support systems, 1988 - Elsevier
J Zhang, J Zhang… - Journal of Development Economics, 2003 - Elsevier
This paper examines the impact of declines in adult mortality on growth in an overlapping
generations model. With public education and imperfect annuity markets, a decline in
mortality affects growth through three channels. First, it raises the saving rate and thereby ...
RD Lee - Handbook of population and family economics, 1997 - Elsevier
R Lee - Population Studies, 1974 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract This paper presents a technique for deriving demographic information from long
aggregate time series of baptisms and burials. Specifically, this technique provides
quinquennial estimates of population size, age structure, life expectancy and gross ...
R Lee, SH Lee… - 2006 - nber.org
Understanding the economic lifecycle–how it varies and why–is important in its own right,
but is also critical to understanding how changes in population age structure influence many
features of the macroeconomy. Economic behavior over the life cycle can be summarized ...
RD Lee… - … of fertility in developing countries: a …, 1983 - books.google.com
Page 205. Chapter 8 THE DEMAND FOR CHILDREN: A CRITICAL ESSAY Ronald D. Lee and
Rodolfo A. Bulatao INTRODUCTION These volumes reviews factors affecting fertility in developing
countries according to three broad categories: demand, supply, and regulation. ...
R Lee… - Demography, 1997 - Springer
Abstract We analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the
long run finances of the Social Security System. First, on a theoretical level, mortality decline
adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this ...
RD Lee, A Mason… - 1997 - scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu
R Lee - Revue économique, 1980 - JSTOR
Cet article présente une synthèse analytique et une critique de la littérature récente traitant
du rôle de la structure par âge dans les modèles de croissance économique équilibrée.
Certaines études surestiment les bénéfices d'une croissance démographique rapide, en ...
RD Lee… - Population and Development Review, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
Page 1. Children's Economic Roles in the Maya Family Life Cycle: Cain, Caldwell, and
Chayanov Revisited Ronald D. Lee Karen L. Kramer According to Caldwell's (1976) theory,
wealth in traditional societies flows upward from children to their parents. ...
N Li… - Demography, 2005 - Springer
Abstract Mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely to be
similar in some respects, and differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. It should
therefore be possible to improve the mortality forecasts for individual countries by taking ...
[CITATION] Population growth and economic development: issues and evidence
DG Johnson… - 1987 - Univ of Wisconsin Pr
RD Lee, T Miller - Proceedings of the World Bank Annual …, 1990 - cabdirect.org
Government-financed family planning programmes that assist individual couples to attain their
desired number of children are easily justified. But government policies that coerce or use financial
incentives to influence couples to alter their desired number of children require stronger ...
R Lee - Population Bulletin of the United Nations, 1990 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
A review of the impact of economic fluctuations on demographic factors suggests
remarkable similarities between the pre-20th century experience of European populations
and the current experience of poor developing countries. Studies of pre-industrial ...
A Bommier… - Journal of Population Economics, 2003 - Springer
Page 1. J Popul Econ (2003) 16:135–160 Overlapping generations models with
realistic demography Antoine Bommier1, Ronald D. Lee2 1Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques (INED), 133 Boulevard Davout 75980 Paris ...
R Lee - The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 1985 - JSTOR
Demographic History Classical economists viewed population size as a passive variable,
which obediently traced a path defined by the demand for labor. The sometimes turbulent
chronology of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality was seen as a distracting tale of ...
RD Lee - Journal of Human Resources, 1994 - JSTOR
Page 1. Population Age Structure, Intergenerational Transfer, and Wealth A New
Approach, With Applications to the United States Ronald D. Lee with the assistance
of Timothy Miller ABSTRACT Resources are reallocated across ...
The preindustrial context offers particular advantages for the study of population change and
its consequences. Over the course of centuries the effects of population pressure on
resources have a chance to emerge and to dominate the more transitory influences. And ...
RD Lee - Sharing the wealth: demographic change and …, 2000 - ceda.berkeley.edu
September 16, 1995 Preliminary Draft. Intergenerational Transfers and the Economic
Life Cycle: A Cross-Cultural Perspective. Ronald Lee Demography and Economics
University of California 2232 Piedmont Ave Berkeley, CA 94720. ...
R Lee… - Health Services Research, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
Study Design. Stochastic time series models are estimated for historical variations in fertility,
mortality, and health spending per capita in the United States, and used to generate
stochastic simulations of the growth of Medicare expenditures. Individual health spending ...
RD Lee - Working Papers, 1995 - ideas.repec.org
Consumption and labor earnings differ markedly from one another over the life cycle. These
differences are made possible by various kinds of reallocations from one age to another. The
reallocations take many forms, but they can be grouped into three analytically motivated categories ...
R Lee… - The American Economic Review, 1998 - JSTOR
Long-run decline of fertility and mortality will lead to secular aging of the US population,
punctuated by the retirement of the babyboom generations in the early 21st century. These
changes will severely stress our Social Security system. However, despite their ...
R Lee… - Journal of Population Economics, 2002 - Springer
Abstract. The history of preindustrial Europe provides an opportunity to examine the causes
and consequences of population change at a macro level. However, serious statistical
problems arise from the endogeneity of all observed variables in a Malthusian system ( ...
RD Lee - Population and Development Review, 1976 - JSTOR
... 64 ( March 1969): 111-131; and Ronald Lee, "Fore- easting births in post transition popula-
tions: Stochastic renewal with serially cor- related fertility," Journal of the American
Statistical Association 69, no. 347 ( Sep- tember 1974): 607-617. ...
LR Carter… - International Journal of Forecasting, 1992 - Elsevier
... Consequences (Australian National Uni-versity, Canberra), 141-164.Weeks, JR, 1985, Population:
An Introduction to ConceptsL.R. Carter, RD Lee I Forecasting US sex differentials in mortality
411and Issues (Wadsworth Publishing Company, Belmont, Ronald LEE is Professor ...
[CITATION] Population patterns in the past
RD Lee, RD Lee - 1977 - Academic Press
RD Lee - Mathematical Population Studies, 1988 - Taylor & Francis
Page 1. Mathematical Population Studies, 1988, Vol. 1(3), pp. 265-288 Reprints available
directly from the publisher Photocopying permitted by license only © 1988 Gordon and Breach
Science Publishers, Inc. Printed in the United States of America ...
R Lee - Ages, Generations and the Social Contract, 2007 - Springer
Redistribution of resources across age has always been centrally important throughout
human history, but the circumstances have changed in fundamental ways. First, the shape of
the economic life cycle has changed, altering the dependent life stages. Second, the ...
RD Lee - Population Studies, 1985 - Taylor & Francis
Page 1. Population Studies, 39 (1985), 233-248 With 5 text-figures Printed in Great
Britain Inverse Projection and Back Projection: A Critical Appraisal, and Comparative
Results for England, 1539 to 18711 R, D. LEE* An important ...
Population aging is projected to have a major impact on the federal budget in the next
century, in part through its effects on health costs through Medicare and Medicaid, and in
part through its effect on the retirement system. Despite the inevitability of the aging of the ...
RD Lee… - The Journal of Political Economy, 1988 - JSTOR
Page 1. Intergenerational Flows of Time and Goods: Consequences of Slowing
Population Growth Ronald D. Lee and Shelley Lapkoff University of California,
Berkeley It is feared that low fertility and older age distributions in ...
RD Lee, A Mason… - Working Papers, 1998 - ideas.repec.org
No abstract is available for this item.
R Lee, A Mason… - Scandinavian Journal of …, 2003 - demog.berkeley.edu
Abstract A transition in a Third World society from a system of familial support for the elderly
to a system of individual responsibility through saving and investment would have effects in
some respects similar to a transition from a Pay As You Go public pension system to a ...
R Lee… - Finance and Development, 2006 - relooney.info
Industrial countries have largely completed what is called the" demographic transition"—the
transition from a largely rural agrarian society with high fertility and mortality rates to a
predominantly urban industrial society with low fertility and mortality rates. At an early ...
R Lee… - European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de …, 2010 - Springer
Abstract Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer
children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends
previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased ...
RM Lee - Electronic Markets, 1998 - Taylor & Francis
Page 1. Focus THEME BY RONALD M. LEE. ERE.MUS UNIVERSITY, ROTTERDAM.
THE NETHERLANDS* ABSTRACT A design and pilot implementation of a system, called
InterProcs, supporting elec- tronic contracting is presented. ...
PR Galloway,
RD Lee… - From death to birth: …, 1998 - books.google.com
Page 198. 6 Infant Mortality and the Fertility Transition: Macro Evidence from Europe
and New Findings from Prussia Patrick R. Galloway, Ronald D. Lee, and Eugene
A. Hammel INTRODUCTION Most attempts to understand ...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Population aging, accelerating as the Baby Boom generations age,
will have important fiscal consequences because expenditures on social secu-rity,
Medicare, and institutional Medicaid make up more than a third of the federal budget. ...
R Lee - 2001 - escholarship.org
Additional Info: This paper was also published in Jane Sneddon Little and Robert K. Triest,
eds., Seismic Shifts: The Economic Impact of Demographic Change, Federal Reserve Bank
of Boston conference Series No. 46, pp. 220-237, and can be found at: http://www. bos. frb ...
RD Lee - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1975 - JSTOR
Page 1. Natural Fertility, Population Cycles and the Spectral Analysis of Births and
Marriages RONALD DEMOS LEE* Birth and marriage series are viewed as
simultaneous mixed auto- regressive and moving average processes ...
RD Lee… - The Immigration Debate: Studies on the …, 1998 - books.google.com
Page 199. 5 The Current Fiscal Impact of Immigrants and Their Descendants: Beyond the
Immigrant Household Ronald D. Lee and Timothv W. Miller INTRODUCTION Does
immigration lead to higher taxes for state, local, and federal taxpayers? ...
[CITATION] Models of Preindustrial Population Dynamics, with Applications to England
R Lee - Historical studies of changing fertility, 1978 - Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
IS Rubinstein, RD Lee… - U. Chi. L. Rev., 2008 - HeinOnline
Page 1. Data Mining and Internet Profiling: Emerging Regulatory and Technological
Approaches Ira S. Rubinstein, Ronald D. Lee, & Paul M. Schwartzt INTRODUCTION
The 9/11 terrorists, before their deadly attacks, sought ...
LR Carter… - Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1986 - JSTOR
Page 1. Joint Forecasts of US Marital Fertility, Nuptiality, Births, and Marriages Using Time Series
Models LAWRENCE R. CARTER and RONALD D. LEE* This article presents a new approach
to forecasting US marital fertility, nuptiality, births, and marriages. ...
[CITATION] British population in the eighteenth century
RD Lee… - The economic history of Britain since, 1981
CYC Chu… - Journal of population economics, 1994 - Springer
Page 1. J Popul Econ (1994) 7:351-378 --Journal of Population Economics ©
Springer-Verlag 1994 Famine, revolt, and the dynastic cycle Population dynamics in
historic China* C.¥. Cyrus Chu 1 and Ronald D. Lee 2 1 Department ...
KW Wachter… - Demography, 1989 - Springer
Page 1. Demography, Vol. 26, No.1, February 1989 US Births and Limit Cycle Models
Kenneth W. Wachter and Ronald D. Lee Graduate Group in Demography, University
of California, Berkeley, California 94720 Lee's (1974 ...
RD Lee - Population and Development Review, 1990 - JSTOR
Page 1. Long-Run Global Population Forecasts: A Critical Appraisal Ronald D. Lee
Major forecasts of demographic trends in the twenty-first century are in reassuringly
close agreement1 : growth rates will decline steadily throughout ...
RM Lee… - Journal of Management Information Systems, 1986 - JSTOR
Page 1. Shopping in the Electronic Marketplace RONALD M. LEE and GEORGE R.
WIDMEYER Ronald M. Lee is presently a member of the Information Systems Group
at the Graduate School of Business, University of Texas, Austin. ...
RM Lee… - 1994 - re.kvasir.no
Page 1. Facilitating International Contracting (12/10/94) page 1 FACILITATING
INTERNATIONAL CONTRACTING: AI Extensions to EDI Ronald M. Lee Sandra
Donaldson Dewitz Management Science and Information Systems ...
RD Lee - International Journal of Forecasting, 1992 - Elsevier
[CITATION] Modelling and forecasting provincial mortality in Canada
RD Lee… - 1993 - Statistics Canada
A Mason… - Population aging, intergenerational transfers …, 2007 - books.google.com
Economic development and demographic transition are linked in complicated and reciprocal
ways. Economic development leads to declines in fertility and mortality, whereas changes in
population size, growth rate and age distribution influence the pace of economic growth. It ...
[CITATION] Methods and models for analyzing historical series of births, deaths and marriages
RD Lee - Population patterns in the past, 1977 - Academic Press
R Lee, JJ McComas… - Journal of Applied Behavior …, 2002 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Abstract Variability has been shown to be a reinforceable dimension of behavior. One
procedure that has been demonstrated to increase variability in basic research is the lag
reinforcement schedule. On this type of schedule, a response is reinforced if it differs from ...
[CITATION] Conscious and unconscious factors in marital infidelity
BL Greene, RR Lee… - Medical Aspects of Human Sexuality, 1974
[CITATION] Inverse projection and demographic fluctuations: A critical assessment of new methods
RD Lee - Old and New Methods in Historical Demography, …, 1993
[CITATION] Organizational Decision Support Systems: Proceedings of the IFIP WG 8.3 Working Conference on Organizational Decision Support Systems, Lake Como, …
RM Lee, AM McCosh… - 1988 - North Holland
R Lee, A Mason… - The Scandinavian Journal of …, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
Under the life-cycle saving model, population aging leads to an increased demand for life-cycle
wealth. Changes in transfer systems create or destroy one component of life-cycle wealth—transfer
wealth. The decline in the familial transfer system in Taiwan and reform of the US Social ...
AJ Auerbach… - 2001 - books.google.com
... Contents List of Figures page vii List of Tables xi Contributors xv Acknowledgments xix 1
Introduction 1 2 Population Forecasting for Fiscal Planning: Issues and Innovations 7 RONALD
LEE AND SHRIPAD TULMPURKAR 2-1 Comment 58 DANIEL MCFADDEN 2-2 Comment ...
RF Lee… - 1970 - bcin.ca
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Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Lee, Ronald F. Title of Source:
The Antiquities Act of 1906 Publisher/Distributor: Office of History ...
N Li,
R Lee… - International Statistical Review, 2004 - Wiley Online Library
Summary The Lee–Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to
work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when
there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is ...
R Lee - Population and Development Review, 2000 - Wiley Online Library
According to a report recently issued by the Technical Panel for the US Social Security
Administration, the long-term financial outlook for the system is worse than previously
thought. The worsening projected by the panel in the long-run funding imbalance of the ...
R Breitwisch, M Diaz… - Behaviour, 1987 - JSTOR
Adult and newly independent juvenile northern mockingbirds foraged on arthropods in the
breeding season at similar rates within bouts, but adult efficiency (both as captures/attempt
and captures/min) was higher than juvenile efficiency. Adults also captured a greater ...
RD Lee - Population and Development Review, 1990 - JSTOR
Page 1. Comment: The Second Tragedy of the Commons RONALD D. LEE SOME
PEOPLE JUSTIFY POPULATION CONTROL POLICIES on the grounds that popula-
tion growth reduces economic well-being. It is not clear, however ...
RD Lee, PR Galloway… - Demography, 1994 - Springer
Page 1. Demography, Vol. 31, No.2, May 1994 Fertility Decline in Prussia: Estimating
Influences on Supply, Demand, and Degree of Control* Ronald D. Lee Departments
of Demography and Economics University of California ...
L Brilmayer… - Notre Dame L. Rev., 1984 - HeinOnline
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_833.pdf %PDF-1.1 % 0 1 2 3 1 0 obj << /Type /Font /Name /R1 /Subtype /Type1 /BaseFont
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AJ Auerbach… - 2009 - nber.org
Around the world, pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) public pension programs are facing serious long-
term fiscal problems due primarily to actual and projected population aging, and most
appear unsustainable as currently structured. All strict PAYGO programs (ie, those that do ...
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R Lee - Business Process Management, 2000 - Springer
This paper introduces the concept of an electronic trade scenario (executable transaction
model) as a potential solution to “open” electronic commerce-trade among parties that have
no prior trading relationship. The basic idea is that these trade scenarios would be stored ...
R Lee… - The ANNALS of the American Academy of …, 1990 - ann.sagepub.com
Abstract When individual couples make informed fertility decisions that reflect a concern for
the future well-being of their own children, the aggregate demographic outcome should be
both socially and individually optimal. This result depends on several assumptions, ...
[CITATION] National scripts: The varying construction of individualism and opinion across the modern nation-states
RL Jepperson - 1992 - Yale University
R Lee - Newsletter/International Union for the Scientific Study …, 1983 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
PIP: There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic
influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various
ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: ...
CY Cyrus Chu… - Theoretical population biology, 2006 - Elsevier
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