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Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter

[PDF] from uni-muenchen.de
B Preston - 2005 - mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
This paper considers the implications of an important source of model misspecification for
the design of monetary policy rules: the assumed manner of expectations formation. In the
model considered here, private agents seek to maximize their objectives subject to ...
Cited by 104 - Related articles - All 20 versions

[PDF] Small open economy DSGE models: specification, estimation and model fit

[PDF] from anu.edu.au
A Justiniano… - Manuscript, Columbia University, 2004 - cama.anu.edu.au
Abstract This paper estimates various specifications of a small open economy model in
order to determine which model assumptions provide a better fit of inflation, output, interest
rates and real exchange rate data from Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The ...
Cited by 94 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 3 versions

Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model

[PDF] from reservebank.govt.nz
Full text - MIT Libraries
A Justiniano… - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
This paper explores optimal policy design in an estimated model of three small open
economies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Within a class of generalized Taylor rules,
we show that to stabilize a weighted objective of output consumer price inflation and ...
Cited by 63 - Related articles - Library Search - All 24 versions

Precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations

[PDF] from espol.edu.ec
J Parker… - 2002 - nber.org
This paper uses data on the expenditures of households to explain movements in the
average growth rate of consumption in the US from the beginning of 1982 to the end of
1997. We propose and implement a decomposition of consumption growth into series ...
Cited by 60 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 26 versions

Can structural small open economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?

[PDF] from chicagofed.org
A Justiniano… - 2008 - nber.org
This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open economy model of the
Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced
disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model ...
Cited by 58 - Related articles - All 20 versions

Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy

[PDF] from columbia.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
B Preston - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006 - Elsevier
This paper argues that recently popular forecast-based instrument rules for monetary policy
may fail to stabilize economic fluctuations. In a New Keynesian model of output gap and
inflation determination in which private agents face multi-period decision problems, but ...
Cited by 41 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Expectations, learning and business cycle fluctuations

[PDF] from rba.gov.au
S Eusepi… - 2008 - nber.org
This paper develops a theory of expectations-driven business cycles based on learning.
Agents have incomplete knowledge about how market prices are determined and shifts in
expectations of future prices affect dynamics. In a real business cycle model, the ...
Cited by 38 - Related articles - Library Search - All 55 versions

Central bank communication and expectations stabilization

[PDF] from psu.edu
S Eusepi… - 2007 - nber.org
This paper analyzes the value of communication in the implementation of monetary policy.
The central bank is uncertain about the current state of the economy. Households and firms
are uncertain about the statistical properties of aggregate variables, including nominal ...
Cited by 37 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 43 versions

Generalized empirical likelihood-based model selection criteria for moment condition models

[PDF] from caltech.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
H Hong, B Preston… - Econometric Theory, 2003 - Cambridge Univ Press
This paper proposes model selection criteria~ MSC! for unconditional moment models using
generalized empirical likelihood~ GEL! statistics+ The use of GEL-statistics in lieu of J-
statistics~ in the spirit of Andrews, 1999, Econometrica 67, 543–564; and Andrews and Lu, ...
Cited by 31 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 20 versions

Can structural small open-economy models account for the influence of foreign disturbances?

Full text - MIT Libraries
A Justiniano… - Journal of International Economics, 2010 - Elsevier
This paper demonstrates that an estimated, structural, small open-economy model of the
Canadian economy cannot account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced
disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The benchmark model ...
Cited by 27 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

[PDF] from ecb.de
Full text - MIT Libraries
B Preston - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008 - Elsevier
This paper investigates monetary policy design when central bank and private-sector
expectations differ. Private agents learn adaptively; the central bank has a possibly
misspecified model of the economy. Successful implementation of optimal policy using ...
Cited by 20 - Related articles - All 15 versions

[PDF] Consumption, investment and international linkages

[PDF] from rba.gov.au
G Debelle… - Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion …, 1995 - rba.gov.au
ABSTRACT This paper seeks to explain the strong contemporaneous relationship between
Australian and foreign output growth. It does so by adopting a more disaggregated approach
than previous work, focussing in particular on consumption and investment. The ...
Cited by 20 - Related articles - All 11 versions

Incomplete markets, heterogeneity and macroeconomic dynamics

[PDF] from fednewyork.org
B Preston… - 2007 - nber.org
This paper solves a real business cycle model with heterogeneous agents and uninsurable
income risk using perturbation methods. A second order accurate characterization of agent's
optimal decision rules is given, which renders the implications of aggregation for ...
Cited by 21 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 25 versions

Labor supply heterogeneity and macroeconomic co-movement

[PDF] from fednewyork.org
S Eusepi… - 2009 - nber.org
Standard real-business-cycle models must rely on total factor productivity (TFP) shocks to
explain the observed co-movement between consumption, investment and hours worked.
This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed heterogeneity in ...
Cited by 15 - Related articles - Library Search - All 38 versions

[PDF] Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy

[PDF] from psu.edu
B Preston - unpublished, Princeton University, 2004 - Citeseer
Abstract How should private-sector forecasts be incorporated into the design of optimal
monetary policy? This paper addresses this question using the framework of Preston (2002)
in which private agents, rather than forming expectations rationally, use an econometric ...
Cited by 15 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 3 versions

[CITATION] The impact of inflation and uncertainty on the optimum price set by firms

B Russell, J Evans… - Discussion Papers, 1997 - econpapers.repec.org
... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your
bookmarks. The Impact Of Inflation and Uncertainty On The Optimum Price Set
By Firms. Bill Russell (), Jonathan Evans and Bruce Preston (). ...
Cited by 9 - Related articles - Cached - Library Search - BL Direct - All 6 versions

Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection

[PDF] from columbia.edu
H Hong… - Journal of Econometrics, 2011 - Elsevier
This paper studies the asymptotic relationship between Bayesian model averaging and post-
selection frequentist predictors in both nested and nonnested models. We derive conditions
under which their difference is of a smaller order of magnitude than the inverse of the ...
Cited by 10 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search - All 12 versions

Stabilizing expectations under monetary and fiscal policy coordination

[PDF] from fednewyork.org
S Eusepi… - 2008 - nber.org
This paper analyzes the constraints imposed on monetary and fiscal policy design by
expectations formation. Households and firms learn about the policy regime using historical
data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations analysis ...
Cited by 9 - Related articles - Library Search - All 77 versions

[PDF] The maturity structure of debt, monetary policy and expectations stabilization

[PDF] from nber.org
S Eusepi… - Unpublished, Federal Reserve Bank of New York …, 2011 - nber.org
Abstract This paper identifies a channel by which changes in the size and composition of
govern% ment debt might generate macroeconomic instability in a standard New Keynesian
model. The mechanism depends on failures of Ricardian equivalence because of learning ...
Cited by 6 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 21 versions

Debt, Policy Uncertainty and Expectations Stabilization

[PDF] from columbia.edu
S Eusepi… - 2010 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for
stabilizing expectations. Because of learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and
fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations analysis, the set of ...
Cited by 5 - Related articles - All 17 versions

[PDF] Nonnested model selection criteria

[PDF] from stanford.edu
H Hong… - 2006 - stanford.edu
Abstract This paper studies model selection for a general class of models based on
minimizing random distance functions. The proposed model selection criteria are consistent,
regardless of whether models are nested or nonnested and regardless of whether models ...
Cited by 4 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 2 versions

[CITATION] tCan Structural Small Open Economy Mod (els Account for the Influence of Foreign Disturbances? umanuscript

A Justiniano… - Columbia University, 2006
Cited by 4 - Related articles

[CITATION] Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon

B Preston - Princeton Manuscript, 2003
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[PDF] Three Inscriptions of Nabopolassar, King of Babylonia (BC 625-604)

[PDF] from jstor.org
Full text - MIT Libraries
PP Bruce - The American Journal of Semitic Languages and …, 1900 - JSTOR
No. I of the inscriptions published below in transcription and translation is from the text
published by Hilprecht in his Old Babylonian Inscriptions, Chiefly from Nippur, Part I (1893),
32 sq., No. 84, cited in Delitzsch, HWB., Preface, p. vii, as NABOPOL. HILPR.'The original ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles

[CITATION] Precautionary Saving and Economic Fluctuations

JA Parker… - 2001 - Mimeo, Princeton University
Cited by 1 - Related articles

[PDF] Expectations Driven Fluctuations and Stabilization Policy

[PDF] from psu.edu
S Eusepi… - 2006 - Citeseer
Abstract This paper explores the constraints imposed by expectations formation on the
effectiveness of stabilization policy. Agents have incomplete information about the economic
environment and form beliefs by extrapolating from observed patterns in historical data. ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 14 versions

Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy

[PDF] from newyorkfed.org
S Eusepi… - Journal of The Japanese and International …, 2011 - Elsevier
This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in
policy regimes in which monetary policy is 'passive'and fiscal policy 'active'. This
configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in ...
Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 19 versions

[CITATION] Motorcycle Riding

B Preston - 1978 - Barrie & Jenkins

[CITATION] From the door of the White House

P Bruce, P Haas… - 1984 - getcited.org
... Post a Comment. CONTRIBUTORS: Author: Bruce, Preston (b. 1908, d. ----. PUBLISHER: ... PAGES
(INTRO/BODY): SUBJECT(S): White House (Washington, DC); Juvenile literature; Washington
(DC); Biography; Presidents; Staff; United States; Bruce, Preston; Hoban, James. ...
Cached - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search

[PDF] Inflation and Debt Dynamics under Fiscal Stress!

[PDF] from bancaditalia.it
S Eusepi… - 2006 - bancaditalia.it
Abstract This paper explores the constraints imposed by expectations formation on the effec"
tiveness of stabilization policy. Regimes with passive Ricardian fiscal policy (as in the
standard account of monetary policy design) and also active non" Ricardian fiscal policy ...
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[PDF] Graph# theoretic Asset Pricing

[PDF] from columbia.edu
A Preston… - 2005 - columbia.edu
Abstract Exploiting and explaining hidden structure in the risk correction process, our graph#
theoretic approach offers novel tools and a new rule for asset pricing in the finite# state
model under market completeness, one# period settlement and nontriviality of risk. ...
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Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge

[PDF] from newyorkfed.org
S Eusepi, M Giannoni… - 2012 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Under rational expectations monetary policy is generally highly effective in
stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the
expectations hypothesis of the term structure---anticipated movements in future short-term ...
Related articles - All 3 versions

[CITATION] Adaptive Learning, Long-horizon Expectations and Monetary Policy

BJ Preston - 2003 - Princeton University
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DP8845 Long-Term Debt Pricing and Monetary Policy Transmission under Imperfect Knowledge

S Eusepi, M Giannoni… - 2012 - cepr.org
Under rational expectations monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the
economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of
the term structure---anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control ...
Cached - All 3 versions

[PDF] Macroeconomics (ESSIM) 2008

[PDF] from bde.com.es
S Eusepi… - 2008 - bde.com.es
Abstract Recently there has been a renewed interest in the notion that expectations are a
source of business cycle fluctuation. This paper explores learning dynamics as a spe% cific
theory of shifting expectations, and assesses its implications for the amplification and ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 11 versions

Foreign shock transmission in small open economies

A Justiniano… - Computing in Economics and Finance …, 2006 - ideas.repec.org
This paper evaluates whether an estimated, structural, small open economy model of the
Canadian economy can account for the substantial influence of foreign-sourced
disturbances identified in numerous reduced-form studies. The analysis shows that the ...
Cached - All 4 versions

[CITATION] Motorcycle Maintenance: Looking After Your Bike

B Preston - 1983 - Low

[PDF] Technical Appendix for cCentral Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilizationd

[PDF] from nyfedeconomists.org
S Eusepi… - 2008 - nyfedeconomists.org
... and Expectations Stabilizationd Stefano Eusepi Federal Reserve Bank of New York Bruce Preston
Columbia University and NBER August 20, 2008 Abstract This technical appendix provides some
calculations underlying the model used in Eusepi and Preston (2008). Contents ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 12 versions

[CITATION] Small Open Economy DSGE Models: Estimation and Model Fit

A Justiniano… - 2004
Related articles

[PDF] Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co $ movement

[PDF] from frbatlanta.org
B Preston - 2009 - frbatlanta.org
Abstract Standard real $ business $ cycle models must rely on total factor productivity (TFP)
shocks to explain the observed co $ movement between consumption, investment and hours
worked. This paper shows that a neoclassical model consistent with observed ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 8 versions

[PDF] CENTRE FOR APPLIED MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS

[PDF] from anu.edu.au
A Justiniano… - 2006 - cama.anu.edu.au
Abstract This paper evaluates whether an estimated, structural, small open economy model
of the Canadian economy can account for the substantial influence of foreign $ sourced
disturbances iden $ tified in numerous reduced $ form studies. The analysis shows that ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 5 versions

Empirical Likelihood-Based Selection Criteria for Moment Condition Models

H Hong, B Preston… - Economics Working Paper Archive, 2001 - ideas.repec.org
In this note we propose model selection criteria (MSC) for unconditional moment models
using empirical likelihood (EL) statistics in the construction of the MSC The use of EL-
statistics in lieu of the more common J-statistics leads to a much more transparent ...
Cached - All 5 versions

An Analysis of Federal Delivery Systems for Early Child Development Services

P Bruce - 1972 - scholarworks.umass.edu
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RDP9512 Consumption, Investment and International Linkages

G Debelle, B Preston - 1995 - rba.gov.au
Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the strong contemporaneous relationship between
Australian and foreign output growth. It does so by adopting a more disaggregated approach
than previous work, focussing in particular on consumption and investment. The ...
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