JB DeLong - 1989 - works.bepress.com
ABSTRACT We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in
which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn
higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the ...
JB DeLong, A Shleifer, LH Summers… - 1989 - nber.org
Analyses of the role of rational speculators in financial markets usually presume that such
investors dampen price fluctuations by trading against liquidity or noise traders. This
conclusion does not necessarily hold when noise traders follow positive-feedback ...
JB DeLong, A Shleifer, LH Summers… - 1988 - nber.org
We use the revised estimates of US GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess
the time-series properties of US output per capita over the past century. We reject at
conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the ...
JB DeLong - 1991 - nber.org
The pre-World War I period saw the heyday of “financial capitalism” in the United States:
securities issues in particular and the investment banking business in general were
concentrated in the hands of a very few investment bankers-of which the partnership of JP ...
JB DeLong, A Shleifer, LH Summers… - 1989 - nber.org
Recent empirical research has identified a significant amount of volatility in stock prices that
cannot be easily explained by changes in fundamentals; one interpretation is that asset
prices respond not only to news but also to irrational" noise trading." We assess the ...
JB DeLong… - 1986 - nber.org
This note shows that contrary to widespread belief there is little evidence that the business
cycle is asymmetric. Using American data for the pre-and post-war periods and data on five
other major OECD nations for the post-war period, we are unable to support the ...
JB DeLong - 1997 - nber.org
Examine the price level in the United States over the past century. Wars see prices rise
sharply, by more than 15% per year at the peaks of wartime and postwar decontrol inflation.
The National Industrial Recovery Act and the abandonment of the gold standard at the ...
JB DeLong… - American Economic Review, 1986 - works.bepress.com
Abstract This paper uses John Taylor's model of overlapping contracts to show that
increased wage and price flexibility can easily be destabilizing because of the Mundell
effect. Simulations based on" realistic" parameter values suggest that increases in price ...
JB DeLong… - 1986 - nber.org
Perhaps the most striking feature of business cycles is that their amplitude varies widely from
era to era and from country to country. Although there do seem to be striking regularities in
the pattern of covariation exhibited by variables connect. ed with the business cycle, there ...
JB DeLong - In search of prosperity: analytic narratives on …, 2003 - econ.ucdenver.edu
Abstract Before the late 1980s the economic growth rate of independent India looks
ordinary: India's rate of growth of output per worker is square in the middle of the world's
distribution, and the values of its proximate determinants of growth are ordinary too. This ...
JB DeLong… - Internet publishing and beyond: The …, 2000 - books.google.com
Two and one-quarter centuries ago, the Scottish moral philosopher Adam Smith used a
particular metaphor to describe the competitive market system, a metaphor that still
resonates today. He saw the competitive market as a system in which every individual... ...
JB DeLong, A Shleifer, LH Summers… - 1987 - nber.org
The claim that financial markets are efficient is backed by an implicit argument that
misinformed" noise traders" can have little influence on asset prices in equilibrium. If noise
traders' beliefs are sufficiently different from those of rational agents to significantly affect ...
JB DeLong… - Economic Review, 2001 - ideas.repec.org
In a presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 2001 symposium,“Economic
Policy for the Information Economy,” Professor J. Bradford DeLong of the University of
California-Berkeley, and Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers suggested that any ...
S Dowrick… - 2003 - nber.org
We see “globalization” everywhere. The nineteenth century saw falls in the costs of
transporting goods across oceans that made large-scale intercontinental trade in staples
rather than just curiosities and luxuries possible for the first time in human history (see O' ...
JB DeLong… - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1999 - JSTOR
DEFLATION IS BACK. In the six months from October 1998 to March 1999, some 438
articles about deflation appeared in major US newspapers,'compared with only 36 in the first
half of 1997 and 10 in the first half of 1990. For sixty years, ever since the middle years of ...
M Becht… - 2005 - nber.org
A century ago European academics like Werner Sombart worried why the United States was
exceptional, in that it had no socialism. Today we academics worry about a different form of
American exceptionalism: why is there so little block holding in the United States? Most ...
JB DeLong, C Goldin… - Agenda for the Nation, 2003 - 128.32.105.161
With rapid economic growth, social and economic problems become far less of a burden. A
fast growing economy is a rich economy. A rich economy is one in which people have more
options and better choices: the people can—through their individual private and collective ...
JB DeLong - 2000 - nber.org
There is one central fact about the economic history of the twentieth century: above all, the
century just past has been the century of increasing material wealth and economic
productivity. No previous era and no previous economy has seen material wealth and ...
JB DeLong… - 2001 - nber.org
We review and analyze the monetary and financial policies of the Clinton administration with
a focus on the strong dollar policy, the Mexican rescue, the response to the Asian crisis, and
the debate over reform of the international financial architecture. While we consider the ...
[CITATION] Robber barons
JB DeLong - Perspectives on Russian Economic Development ( …, 1998
JB DeLong - 2003 - nber.org
In the early 1970s, US productivity growth fell off a cliff. Measured output per person-hour
had averaged a growth rate of 2.8% per year from 1947 to 1973. It averaged a growth rate of
only 1.3% per year from 1973 to 1995. In the second half of the 1990s American ...
[CITATION] Estimating world GDP, one million BC–present
JB DeLong - Website document at http://econ161. berkeley. edu/ …, 1998
JB DeLong… - The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2009 - JSTOR
II, equity returns have averaged 6.9 percent per year, bill returns 1.4 percent per year, and
bond returns 1.1 percent per year. Similar gaps between stock and bond and bill returns
have typically existed in other economies. Mehra(2003), citing Siegel (1998) and ...
JB DeLong, RN Cooper… - Brookings papers on economic …, 1999 - JSTOR
THE 1990s HAVE seen three large international financial crises shake the world economy:
the collapse of western Europe's Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in the fall of 1992, the
collapse of the Mexican peso in the winter of 1994-95, and the East Asian financial crisis ...
JB DeLong - 1998 - nber.org
Before the Great Depression the US government did not have a fiscal policy, at least not in
the sense that economists have meant for the past two generations. The government did not
attempt to tune its deficit or surplus to achieve the goal of full employment or low inflation. ...
D Baker, JB DeLong… - Brookings Papers on Economic …, 2005 - JSTOR
It is difficult to see how real US GDP growth can be as rapid in the next half-century as it has
been in the last. The baby boom is long past, and no similar explosion of fertility to boost the
rate of labor force growth from natural increase has occurred since or is on the horizon. ...
JB DeLong - The Economists' Voice, 2004 - econ.ku.dk
Summary Fifteen years ago, I found it easy to be in favor of international capital mobility—the
free flow of investment financing from one country to another. Then it was easy to preach for
an end to all systems of controls on capital that hindered this flow. Now it is harder. ...
JB DeLong… - 1988 - nber.org
In this paper, we assess the degree to which four of the most commonly used models of risky
decision making can explain the choices individuals make when faced with risky prospects.
To make this assessment, we use experimental evidence for two random samples of ...
JB DeLong - The Role and Impact of Gifts and Estates, Brookings …, 2003 - piketty.fr
• Bequests play an important but not an overwhelmingly decisive role in the creation of
wealth inequality within any particular cohort.• People leave bequests–especially large
bequests–for three reasons, in declining order of importance:(i) to make their children–all ...
JB DeLong… - 2011 - books.google.com
At the end of World War II, America had all the money—and all the power. Now, after the
Great Crash of 2008, America is cash poor. In The End of Influence, economists Stephen S.
Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong argue that this loss of liquid capital will have grave ...
JB DeLong - Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000 - JSTOR
The inflation of the 1970s was a marked deviation from America's typical peacetime
historical pattern as a hard-money country. We should expect America to continue to be a
hard-money-low inflation-country in the future, at least in peacetime. The low rate of future ...
JB DeLong - Cambridge: Harvard University xerox, 1991 - econ.blog.us
The Federal Reserve took almost no steps to halt the slide into the Great Depression over
1929–33. Instead, the Federal Reserve acted as if appropriate policy was not to try to avoid
the oncoming Great Depression, but to allow it to run its course and “liquidate” the ...
JB DeLong - 2000 - nber.org
The history of the twentieth century can be summarized excessively briefly in five
propositions: First, that the history of the twentieth century was overwhelmingly economic
history. Second, that the twentieth century saw the material wealth of humankind explode ...
SS Cohen, JB DeLong… - E-conomy," BRIE Working …, 2000 - j-bradford-delong.net
Executive Summary There are eras when advancing technology and changing business
organizations transform economies and societies. Such episodes do not just amplify
productivity in one leading sector. Instead they give all economic sectors powerful new" ...
JB DeLong - in David Gruen and Sona Shrestha (eds.), The …, 2000 - Citeseer
Abstract 1.1 Productivity slowdown and speed-up In the second half of the 1970s
productivity growth in the US and the rest of the OECD collapsed: the productivity slowdown.
Then Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, Charles Schultze, speaks of ...
JB DeLong - 2002 - nber.org
Executive Summary Claims that we are in a" new economy" have become less strident over
the past year with the collapse of Internet-company stock valuations. Nevertheless, the smart
way to bet is that the data processing and data communications revo-lutions have ...
JB DeLong - Economic Growth in the World Economy, …, 1992 - j-bradford-delong.net
The twentieth century has seen material wealth grow at a pace unmatched by any previous
century. Even the fastest-growing regions over the century from 1750 to 1850--the century
economic historians have traditionally called the century of the" industrial revolution"--did ...
JB DeLong - Economic Growth, Stanford University Press, …, 1997 - j-bradford-delong.net
Abstract Today economists' views on long-run economic growth are more than usually
divergent.. A minority of economists hold to a baseline vision laid out in the 1950s which is
pessimistic about how policies might affect growth. A substantial group of economists hold ...
JB DeLong - 1987 - nber.org
Economists believe that because technology is a public good national productivity levels
should" converge." William Baumol (1986) argues that the imprint of convergence can be
seen over the past century if one focuses attention on relatively rich nations that had the ...
JE Stiglitz, AS Edlin… - 2011 - books.google.com
In this valuable resource, more than thirty of the world's top economists offer innovative
policy ideas and insightful commentary on our most pressing economic issues, such as
global warming, the global economy, government spending, Social Security, tax reform, ...
JB DeLong… - Economic Review, 1997 - ideas.repec.org
We use an international panel data set of value added by industry to see if labor productivity
is procyclical in response to demand shocks. It is: holding fixed our proxy for supply-side
factors-the value added levels of an industry in other nations-industry-level productivity ...
JB DeLong - Foreign Aff., 2005 - HeinOnline
If there were justice in the world, John Kenneth Galbraith would rank as the twentieth
century's most influential American economist. He has published several books that are
among the best analyses of modern US history, played a key role in midcentury ...
[CITATION] The invisible college
JB DeLong - Chronicle of Higher Education, July, 2006
[CITATION] The great American universal banking experiment
JB DeLong - from Inside the Business Enterprise, University of …, 1991
SS Cohen… - The Atlantic Monthly, 2005 - facultystaff.richmond.edu
t has become conventional wisdom that class politics has no legs in the United States today—
and for good reason. Regardless of actual circumstance, an overwhelming majority of
Americans view themselves as middle-class. Very few have any bone to pick with the rich, ...
JB DeLong - International Finance, 2002 - Wiley Online Library
Our current information technological revolution is, by crude metrics, two to three times the
relative size of previous industrial revolutions which transformed the economy and the world.
However, at the moment, it is anyone's guess what changes in macroeconomic ...
JB DeLong - The Economists' Voice, 2011 - degruyter.com
-1- The Economists' Voice May, 2011© Berkeley Electronic Press/Project Syndicate Economics
in Crisis j. Bradford dElong T he most interesting moment at a recent conference held in Bretton
Woods, New Hampshire—site of the 1945 conference that created today's global ...
JB DeLong - The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2007 - trompette.ens-lsh.fr
My guess is that average literate Americans know of three 20th-century economists: John
Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Alan Greenspan. Perhaps they also know of Paul
Samuelson (but as textbook author, not economic theorist), of Friedrich Hayek (but think ...
JB DeLong - History of Political Economy, 1986 - Duke Univ Press
JB DeLong - Journal of economic literature, 2002 - JSTOR
EACH OF THE FIRST two volumes of Robert Skidelsky's biography of John Maynard Keynes-
Hopes Betrayed and The Economist as Saviour-was an astonishing intellectual
achievement. Now that it is complete, it is clear to me that, as a whole, the three-volume ...
[CITATION] The wrong financial crisis
JB DeLong - VoxEU. org, 2008
JB DeLong… - The Brookings Institution, 2012 - brookings-tsinghua.cn
ABSTRACT This paper examines logic and evidence bearing on the efficacy of fiscal policy
in severely depressed economies. In normal times central banks offset the effects of fiscal
policy. This keeps the policy-relevant multiplier near zero. It leaves no space for ...
JB DeLong - The Economists' Voice, 2005 - relooney.info
Summary Is the US vulnerable to a full-blown dollar crisis? Why are international finance
economists scared and jittery, but domestically-oriented macroeconomists much less
concerned? KEYWORDS: international finance, dollar, exchange rates, monetary ...
[CITATION] Banker Influence and Business Economic Performance: Assessing the Impact of Depression-Era Financial Market Reforms,”
JB DeLong… - Anglo-American Financial Systems: Institutions and …, 1995
H Aaron, N Altman, K Apfel, J Blum, JB DeLong… - 2009 - dspace.cigilibrary.org
" In a recent paper,'Taking Back Our Fiscal Future,'a group of policy analysts from several
Washington think tanks proposed a radical change in budget procedures related to Social
Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as a way to address budget deficits projected for future ...
[CITATION] Between Meltdown and Moral Hazard: Clinton Administration International Monetary and Financial Policy
JB DeLong… - NBER Working Paper, 2001
S Cohen, JB DeLong… - Berkeley: University of …, 2000 - j-bradford-delong.net
Executive Summary There are eras when advancing technology and changing business
organizations transform economies and societies. Such episodes do not just amplify
productivity in one leading sector. Instead they give all economic sectors powerful new" ...
[CITATION] The size of the multiplier and the marginal propensity to consume
JB DeLong - Professor of Economics, University of California at …, 1998
[CITATION] India Since Independence: An Analytical Growth Narrative', July
JB DeLong - 2001
[CITATION] Forthcoming.“Productivity Growth in the 2000s.”
JB DeLong - NBER Macroeconomics Annual
JB DeLong… - … and Financial Policies of the Clinton …, 2002 - hks.harvard.edu
Abstract International monetary and financial policies were at the center of the activities of
the Clinton administration for two reasons: first, its own political failures destroyed the
administation's ability to make large moves in domestic policy; second, ongoing ...
JB Delong - The Economists' Voice, 2008 - econpapers.repec.org
By J. Bradford Delong; Abstract: Stocks have had a very bad decade, but for
Brad Delong that is all the more reason to buy and hold.
[CITATION] Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century–XIII. The Roaring Twenties
JB DeLong - 2010
[CITATION] Slow Income Growth and Absolute Poverty in the North Atlantic Region
JB DeLong - Unpublished. Available at: braddelong. posterous. com …, 2009
[CITATION] J. Zysman (2000), Tools for Thought: What is New and Important about the" E-conomy
…, J Bradford DeLong - BRIE Working Paper
[CITATION] Some speculative Microeconomics for the New Economy
…, J Bradford DeLong - UC Berkeley and Miami Law School, Berkeley …, 1999
[CITATION] The next Economy
DLJ Bradford… - Internet Publishing and Beyond: The Economics of …, 1998
[CITATION] India Since Independence: An Analytic Growth Narrative
DLJ Bradford - Modern Economic Growth: Analytical Country Studies ( …, 2001
[CITATION] Why Do Stock Prices Fluctuate?
R Barsky… - Quarterly
[CITATION] The Future of Economics
JB DeLong - 2004
[CITATION] Threats to American Economic Preeminence?
JB DeLong - 2000 - March
JB DeLong - Sources of American and Prospects for World …, 2000 - j-bradford-delong.net
In the second half of the 1970s productivity growth in the US and the rest of the OECD
collapsed: the productivity slowdown. Then Chair of the President's Council of Economic
Advisers Charles Schultze speaks of the years when the CEA's forecasts of nominal GDP ...
[CITATION] Banker Influence and Business Performance: Assessing the Impact of Depression-Era Financial Market Reforms
JB DeLong… - Anglo-American financial systems. New York: Irwin, 1995
JB DeLong - Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a …, 2003 - kansascityfed.org
But the Fed's performance in its first two decades was not impressive. The disaster of the
Great Depression brought further institutional changes: the coming of deposit insurance to
avoid the radical instability of the money multiplier that was such a powerful feature of the ...
[CITATION] lIs Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?, mAmerican Economic Review, vol. 76, no. 5
JB DeLong… - 1986 - December
[CITATION] Any text. Anytime. Anywhere.(Any volunteers?) The mechanics of a universal library are simple. The tricky part: Harnessing the free labor
JB DeLong - 2003 - Wired
[CITATION] What Happened to the Phillips Curve?
JB DeLong - New York Times, 2000
[CITATION] Review of Joseph Williams, Style: Toward Clarity and Grace
JB DeLong - 1999 - December
[CITATION] Banker Influence and Business Economic Performance: Assessing the Impact of Depression-Era Financial Reforms
CD Ramirez… - Anglo-American Financial Systems: Institutions and …, 1996
[CITATION] American Finance—From Morgan to Milken
JB DeLong - The Wilson Quarterly, 1992
[CITATION] qAmericaps Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s. rIn Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, edited by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, pp. …
JB DeLong - 1997 - Chicago: University of Chicago …
[CITATION] Crash and Learn
JB DeLong - Washington Post, February, 1998
[CITATION] Restoring the Pre-World War I Economy, Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century
JB DeLong - Electronic monograph, University of California at …, 1997
[CITATION] Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy
JB DeLong - mayo del, 2000
JB DeLong - University of California at Berkeley Listserve e- …, 2001 - j-bradford-delong.net
For the past several weeks I have been trying to work on a joint project on which I have not
been pulling my weight (to put it mildly). The assigned topic is" globalization and
convergence"--globalization being the set of forces that is bringing the world together in ...
JB DeLong - 1997 - irle.berkeley.edu
Most of us spend more than one-third of our waking lives working for large, modern
corporations: organizations where we do not know personally either those at the top or the
bulk of those at the bottom of the organization's administrative hierarchy. This is a striking ...
[CITATION] InternetPublishing and Beyond: The Economics of Digital information and Intellectual Property
JB Delong… - 2000 - Cambridge: MIT Press
[CITATION] The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Economic Activity in the United States
JB DeLong… - The American Business Cycle, Continuity and Change, …, 1986
We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the
United Kingdom between 1879 and 1913. A deflationary regime prior to 1896 was followed
by an inflationary one from 1896 until the beginning of World War I; the average inflation ...
JB DeLong - 2001 - 128.32.105.161
The decade of the 1990s was marked by the sudden emergence of capital-account
international financial crises. In a typical such crisis, a sudden loss of confidence in the value
of a country's currency by international currency speculators was followed by a rapid rise ...
[CITATION] Cornucopia: Increasing Wealth in the Twentieth Century
JB DeLong - 2000
[CITATION] andrei Shleifer, Larrence H. Summers, and Richard J. Waldman.''Closed-End Fund Discounts: A Yardstick of Small-Investor Sentiment.''
JB DeLong - Journal of Portfolio Management
[CITATION] lThe Changing Cyclical Vari# ability of Economic Activity in the United States, min RJ Gordon, editor, The Amer# ican Business Cycle: Continuity and …
JB DeLong… - 1986 - National Bureau of Economic …
[CITATION] Dealing with the Islamic Reformation: Parallels Between Today and the Sixteenth Century,“
JB DeLong - 2001
[CITATION] The Coming Age of Interest,“
JB DeLong - Economic Times, April, 2004
JB DeLong - FRBSF Economic Letter, 1998 - j-bradford-delong.net
The 1997 accounting year of the federal government ended last September 30. For fiscal
1997 the federal government recorded a budget deficit of less than $24 billion--less than 0.3
percent of national product. There are plausible technical adjustments and corrections to ...
JB DeLong - 2008 - Citeseer
How much does it benefit a country to develop an “infant industry”—to subsidize an
expansion of the scope of products that it can produce? Developments have wrestled with
this question ever since John Stuart Mill coined the phrase “infant industry.” The question ...
[CITATION] International Finance
JB DeLong - 1997
[CITATION] The Economics of Noise Traders
JB DeLong, A Shleifer, L Summers… - Harvard University, 1987
[CITATION] BOOK REVIEWS-Keys to Prosperity: Free Markets, Sound Money, and a Bit of Luck
R Dornbusch, JB DeLong - Journal of …, 2001 - Nashville [etc.]: American Economic …
Create email alert
About Google Scholar - All About Google - My Citations
©2012 Google