 | Professor of Economics, Northwestern University Verified email at northwestern.edu Cited by 823 |
P Battigalli… - Journal of Economic Theory, 2002 - Elsevier
We provide a unified epistemic analysis of some forward-induction solution concepts in
games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction
reasoning may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing the players' ...
P Battigalli… - Journal of Economic Theory, 1999 - Elsevier
The epistemic analysis of solution concepts for dynamic games involves statements about
the players' beliefs conditional upon different histories of play, their conditional beliefs about
each other's conditional beliefs, etc. To represent such statements, we construct a space ...
P Ghirardato, F Maccheroni, M Marinacci… - …, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
We provide a simple behavioral definition of 'subjective mixture'of acts for a large class of
(not necessarily expected-utility) preferences. Subjective mixtures enjoy the same algebraic
properties as the 'objective mixtures' used to great advantage in the decision setting ...
P Battigalli… - Advances in Theoretical …, 2003 - webkuliah.unimedia.ac.id
Abstract We analyze a family of extensive-form solution procedures for games with
incomplete information that do not require the specification of an epistemic type space a la
Harsanyi, but can accommodate a (commonly known) collection of explicit restrictions D ...
M Siniscalchi - Theoretical Economics, 2011 - Wiley Online Library
This paper analyzes dynamic choice for decision makers whose preferences violate
Savage's sure-thing principle (Savage 1954) and, therefore, give rise to violations of
dynamic consistency. The consistent-planning approach introduced by (1955–1956) ...
P Battigalli… - Games and Economic Behavior, 2003 - Elsevier
We analyze the consequences of strategically sophisticated bidding without assuming
equilibrium behavior. In particular, we characterize interim rationalizable bids in symmetric
first-price auctions with interdependent values and affiliated signals. We show that (1) ...
Recent decision theories represent ambiguity via multiple priors, interpreted as alternative
probabilistic models of the relevant uncertainty. This paper provides a robust behavioral
foundation for this interpretation. A prior P is “plausible” if preferences over some subset of ...
This paper proposes a model of decision under ambiguity deemed vector expected utility, or
VEU. In this model, an uncertain prospect, or Savage act, is assessed according to (a) a
baseline expected-utility evaluation, and (b) an adjustment that reflects the individual's ...
M Siniscalchi - Unpublished paper, Department of …, 2001 - faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu
Abstract A characterization of “generalized Bayesian updating” in a maxmin expected utility
setting is provided. The key axioms are consequentialism and constant-act dynamic
consistency. The latter requires that, if an arbitrary act f is preferred (inferior) to a constant ...
I Hendel,
A Lizzeri… - The Review of …, 2005 - restud.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract We discuss a class of markets for durable goods where efficiency (or approximate
efficiency) is obtained despite the presence of information asymmetries. In the model, the
number of times a good has changed hands (the vintage of the good) is an accurate ...
A Lizzeri… - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2008 - qje.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract We propose a simple theoretical model of supervised learning that is potentially
useful to interpret a number of empirical phenomena relevant to the nature-nurture debate.
The model captures a basic trade-off between sheltering the child from the consequences ...
M Siniscalchi - The New Palgrave Dictionary of …, 2008 - faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu
John Harsanyi [19] introduced the formalism of type spaces to provide a simple and
parsimonious representation of belief hierarchies. He explicitly noted that his formalism was
not limited to modeling a player's beliefs about payoff-relevant variables: rather, its ...
P Battigalli… - Economics Working Papers, 1999 - ideas.repec.org
The authors provide an epistemic analysis of forward induction in games with complete and
incomplete information. They suggest that forward induction may be usefully interpreted as a
set of assumptions governing the players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of ...
P Battigalli… - 1999 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We use an extensive form, universal type space to provide the following epistemic
characterisation of extensive form rationalisability. Say that player i strongly believes event E
if i is certain of E conditional on each of her information sets consistent with E. Our main ...
P Battigalli… - Research in Economics, 1999 - Elsevier
We use a universal, extensive form interactive beliefs system to provide an epistemic
characterization of a weak and a strong notion of rationalizability with independent beliefs.
The weak solution concept is equivalent to backward induction in generic perfect ...
S Cerreia-Vioglio, P Ghirardato, F Maccheroni… - Economic Theory, 2011 - Springer
Abstract This paper analyzes preferences in the presence of ambiguity that are rational in
the sense of satisfying the classical ordering condition as well as monotonicity. Under
technical conditions that are natural in an Anscombe–Aumann environment, we show that ...
M Siniscalchi - Economics and Philosophy, 2009 - Cambridge Univ Press
Al-Najjar and Weinstein (2009) propose to scrutinize the implications of recent theories of
ambiguity in dynamic settings. They conclude that such implications are so unreasonable as
to cast doubts on the legitimacy of the theories under consideration. The present paper ...
Abstract This paper proposes a representation of (possibly) probabilistically unsophisticated
preferences whereby (1) beliefs are jointly represented by a finitely additive probability
measure and a vector-valued measure;(2) uncertain prospects are ranked according to ...
Abstract We wish to analyze the consequences of strategically sophisticated bidding without
assuming equilibrium behavior. As a first step, we characterize interim rationalizable bids in
first-price auctions with interdependent values and affiliated signals. We show that (1) ...
LP Hansen, P Maenhout, A Rustichini… - Journal of Economic …, 2006 - Elsevier
M Siniscalchi - The new palgrave dictionary of economics, 2008 - luiss.it
Consider the following choice problem, known as “Ellsberg's three-color urn example”, or
simply the “Ellsberg Paradox”(Ellsberg [7]). An urn contains 30 red balls, and 60 green and
blue balls, in unspecified proportions; subjects are asked to compare (i) a bet on a red ...
P Battigalli… - Research in Economics, 2007 - Elsevier
We adopt an interactive epistemology perspective to analyse dynamic games with partially
unknown payoff functions. We consider solution procedures that iteratively delete strategies
conditional on private information about the state of nature. In particular we focus on a ...
1 Executive Summary Machina [8] proposes examples of plausible preference patterns that
cannot be accommodated by the Choquet expected utility model (Schmeidler [9]). In a recent
paper, Baillon, L'Haridon and Placido [2] show that Machina's examples also pose a ...
I Hendel,
A Lizzeri… - Econometric Society World Congress …, 2000 - Citeseer
Abstract We study the possibility of achieving efficiency in a dynamic adverse selection
market for durable goods. The idea is to use the number of times a car has been traded
(“vintage”) as a signal of its quality. Higher-valuation consumers experiment with younger ...
[CITATION] Subjective Foundations for Objective Randomization: A New Spin on Roulette Wheels
P Ghirardato, F Maccheroni, M Marinacci… - forthcoming Econometrica, 2001
Abstract This paper proposes and axiomatizes a recursive version of the vector expected
utility (VEU) decision model (Siniscalchi, 2009). Recursive VEU preferences are dynamically
consistent and “consequentialist.” Dynamic consistency implies standard Bayesian ...
[CITATION] PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE!
M Siniscalchi - 2008
Abstract The analysis of extensive-form games involves assumptions concerning players'
beliefs at histories off the predicted path of play. However, the revealed-preference
interpretation of such assumptions is unclear: how does one elicit probabilities conditional ...
Zusammenfassung: This paper analyzes sophisticated dynamic choice for ambiguity-
sensitive decision makers. It characterizes Consistent Planning via axioms on preferences
over decision trees. Furthermore, it shows how to elicit conditional preferences from prior ...
[CITATION] Parental Guidance and Supervised Learning
M Siniscalchi… - 2007 - School of Economics & Finance, The …
P Battigalli… - statistica.unimib.it
Abstract We characterize interim rationalizable bids in first-price auctions with private (but
not necessarily independent) values. We show that (i) every non-zero bid below the
equilibrium is rationalizable,(ii) some bids above the equilibrium are rationalizable,(iii) ...
M Siniscalchi, T Hayashi, J Miao… - Wiley Online Library
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JC Ely, EJ Green, BL Lipman, D Ray, S Athey… - Wiley Online Library
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M Siniscalchi - atlas-conferences.com
This paper represent a first step toward the analysis of simultaneous bidding games based
on explicit assumptions about players' behavior and interactive beliefs. The general
methodology entails constructing bounds on the set of rational (izable) bids for a given`` ...
[CITATION] Weak Sequential Rationality, Invariance and Normal-Form Perfection
M Siniscalchi - Rivista internazionale di …, 2001 - CEDAM CASA EDITRICE DOTT …
MS Siegel, A Sojourner, B Strulovici - 2008 - econ.vt.edu
Abstract A complete description of an economic situation would typically require a very
complicated type space, which involves agentsmcomplex (higher% order) beliefs. Model%
ing involves adopting a simplified type space (for example, a finite type space). Such a ...
[CITATION] Conditional Preferences, Ellsberg Paradoxes and the Sure Thing Principle
M Siniscalchi - STUDIES IN RISK AND …, 1997 - KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
J Hörner, BL Lipman, D Ray, S Athey, T Bergstrom… - Wiley Online Library
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Dec from 10-12 GMT for monthly maintenance. ...
M Marinacci, M Siniscalchi, F Maccheroni… - …, 2003 - dialnet.unirioja.es
... A SUBJECTIVE SPIN ON ROULETTE WHEELS. Autores: Massimo Marinacci, Marciano
Siniscalchi, Fabio Maccheroni, Paolo Ghirardato; Localización: Econométrica, ISSN 0012-9682,
Vol. 71, Nº 6, 2003 , págs. 1897-1908. Fundación Dialnet. Acceso de usuarios registrados. ...
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