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User profiles for author:"Karel Mertens"

karel mertens

Assistant Professor of Economics
Verified email at cornell.edu
Cited by 186

Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach*

[PDF] from harrisdellas.net
Full text - MIT Libraries
K Mertens… - The Economic Journal, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
We are grateful for comments from an anonymous referee, the editor of this Journal,
Domenico Giannone, Jonas Fisher, Roberto Perotti and seminar participants at the RES
2009 Conference and the 4th CSEF-IGIER Conference on Economics and Institutions. ...
Cited by 37 - Related articles - Library Search - All 18 versions

Empirical evidence on the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated US tax policy shocks

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens… - 2010 - nber.org
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamics effects of tax liability changes in the United
States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-
convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise ...
Cited by 34 - Related articles - Library Search - All 25 versions

Understanding the aggregate effects of anticipated and unanticipated tax policy shocks

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Full text - MIT Libraries
K Mertens… - Review of Economic Dynamics, 2011 - Elsevier
This paper evaluates the extent to which a DSGE model can account for the impact of tax
policy shocks. We estimate the response of macroeconomic aggregates to anticipated and
unanticipated tax shocks in the US and find that unanticipated tax cuts have persistent ...
Cited by 31 - Related articles - Library Search - All 15 versions

Business cycle analysis and VARMA models

[PDF] from eui.eu
Full text - MIT Libraries
C Kascha… - Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2009 - Elsevier
Can long-run identified structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) discriminate between
competing models in practice? Several authors have suggested SVARs fail partly because
they are finite-order approximations to infinite-order processes. We estimate vector ...
Cited by 18 - Related articles - All 26 versions

[BOOK] The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence

[PDF] from eui.eu
K Mertens… - 2008 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United
States. We make a distinction between surprise and anticipated tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts
give rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead ...
Cited by 17 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search - All 17 versions

[BOOK] Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap

[PDF] from nber.org
K Mertens… - 2010 - nber.org
Abstract We examine the impact of fiscal policy interventions in an environment where the
short term nominal interest rate is at the zero bound. In the basic New Keynesian model in
which the monetary authority operates a Taylor rule, globally multiple equilibria arise, ...
Cited by 17 - Related articles - View as HTML - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search - All 41 versions

Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US

Full text - MIT Libraries
K Mertens - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008 - Elsevier
Establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of
monetary policy is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the
US since the mid-1980s. This paper presents evidence on a phenomenon of ...
Cited by 8 - Related articles - All 5 versions

Regime switching interest rates and fluctuations in emerging markets

[PDF] from eui.eu
B Gruss… - 2009 - cadmus.eui.eu
We estimate regime switching models for emerging market interest rates and embed the
obtained nonlinear dynamics in a small open economy model with a financial friction. We
show that the presence of an infrequent regime characterized by high level/high volatility ...
Cited by 5 - Related articles - Library Search - All 22 versions

The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops

[PDF] from eui.eu
K Mertens - 2007 - cadmus.eui.eu
This paper presents a flexible-price small open economy model with a “peso problem” in
productivity states. Agents rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after
the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations triggers Sudden Stop, together ...
Cited by 4 - Related articles - Library Search - All 19 versions

[CITATION] VEmpirical Evidence on The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy ShocksV

K Mertens… - Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion …, 2009
Cited by 4 - Related articles

How the removal of deposit rate ceilings has changed monetary transmission in the us: Theory and evidence

[PDF] from eui.eu
K Mertens - 2006 - cadmus.eui.eu
Establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of
monetary policy is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the
US since the mid 1980s. This paper presents evidence on a phenomenon of ...
Cited by 4 - Related articles - Library Search - All 16 versions

Technology-hours redux: Tax changes and the measurement of technology shocks

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens… - 2010 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: A number of empirical studies find that permanent technological improvements
give rise to a temporary drop in hours worked. This finding seriously questions the
technology-driven business cycle hypothesis. In this paper we argue that it is important to ...
Cited by 4 - Related articles - All 8 versions

[BOOK] Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens, MO Ravn… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We study liquidity trap dynamics driven by nonfundamental shifts in expectations in
a model with nominal rigidities, housing, credit frictions and a Taylor rule. Highly leveraged
borrowing through nominal debt backed by real estate collateral greatly magnifies the ...
Cited by 3 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search - All 7 versions

[CITATION] forthcoming).“Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks”

K Mertens… - American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Cited by 2 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries

[PDF] Measuring Fiscal Shocks in Structural VARs using Narrative Data

[PDF] from psu.edu
K Mertens… - Manuscript, Cornell University and University …, 2011 - econ.psu.edu
We describe a methodology that integrates the narrative approach to the identification of
macroeconomic shocks into existing structural VAR settings while allowing for measurement
error in the narrative measures of the shocks of interest. We apply our methodology to the ...
Cited by 2 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 3 versions

Leverage and the Financial Accelerator in a Liquidity Trap

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K Mertens… - The American Economic Review, 2011 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: We show that the financial accelerator may be very large in a liquidity trap. We
study a sticky price model with real estate and a financial friction specified as a collateral
constraint. Expectations can lead the economy to a self-fulfilling liquidity trap equilibrium ...
Cited by 3 - Related articles - All 7 versions

[CITATION] lThe Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence

K Mertens… - 2008 - mCornell University Mimeo
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[PDF] A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens… - manuscript, Cornell University and …, 2011 - arts.cornell.edu
Abstract Existing empirical estimates of US nationwide tax multipliers vary from close to zero
to very large. Using narrative measures as proxies for structural shocks to total tax revenues
in an SVAR, we estimate tax multipliers at the higher end of the range: around two on ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 2 versions

[CITATION] Code and data files for" Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks"

K Mertens… - Computer Codes, 2010 - econpapers.repec.org
Related works: Journal Article: Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated
Tax Policy Shocks This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with
the same title. ... This site is part of RePEc and all the data displayed here is part of the ...
Cached - All 2 versions

[CITATION] Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Financial Friction

K Mertens - 2004
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[DOC] The timing of fiscal interventions: Don't do tomorrow what you can do today

[DOC] from tek.org.tr
K Mertens… - tek.org.tr
The composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus is a major concern for policymakers. This
column presents research showing that anticipated tax cuts result in reduced economy
activity before they take effect. During the current downturn, that constitutes a strong ...
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Royal Economic Society

K Mertens… - The Economic Journal, 2010 - res.org.uk
Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues
such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage.
One explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated. Due to ...
Cached - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 2 versions

[PDF] Unanticipated Tax Changes in the United States

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens… - 2011 - arts.cornell.edu
In this appendix, we describe the decomposition of the total tax liabilities changes of various
legislative actions as recorded by Romer and Romer (2009) and after eliminating those
implemented more than a quarter after their legislation as in Mertens and Ravn (2011) into ...
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DP7931 Fiscal Policy in an Expectations Driven Liquidity Trap

K Mertens… - 2010 - cepr.org
We examine the impact of fiscal policy interventions in an environment where the short term
nominal interest rate is at the zero bound. In the basic New Keynesian model in which the
monetary authority operates a Taylor rule, globally multiple equilibria arise, some of which ...
Cached - All 3 versions

DP6673 The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence

K Mertens… - 2008 - cepr.org
We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We
make a distinction between" surprise" and" anticipated" tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts give
rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead ...
Cached - All 4 versions

[PDF] Appendix to: The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens… - arts.cornell.edu
Figure A-1 presents two alternative time series specifications. In the first row, results are
shown when a linear-quadratic time trend is added to the benchmark specification. The
second row of figure A-1 depicts the output effects when all the variables are included in ...
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DP8554 The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States

K Mertens… - 2011 - cepr.org
This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We
distinguish between the effects of changes in personal and corporate income taxes using a
new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We ...
Cached - All 3 versions

[PDF] ECON 614 MACROECONOMIC THEORY II: Introduction to Macro Data

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens - courses.cit.cornell.edu
Figure 1 plots time series for per capita (adult) real output, per capita real consumption, per
capita investment and per capita hours worked for the US over the sample 1948Q1: 2006Q4.
1 Note that there is trend growth in output, consumption and investment. At shorter ...
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DP7962 Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks

K Mertens… - 2010 - cepr.org
A number of empirical studies find that permanent technological improvements give rise to a
temporary drop in hours worked. This finding seriously questions the technology-driven
business cycle hypothesis. In this paper we argue that it is important to control for ...
Cached - All 3 versions

DP7505 Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks

K Mertens… - 2009 - cepr.org
We evaluate the extent to which a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can
account for the impact of" surprise" and" anticipated" tax shocks estimated from US time-
series data. In US data, surprise tax cuts have expansionary and persistent effects on ...
Cached - All 3 versions

[PDF] ECON 614 MACROECONOMIC THEORY II: The Basic Neoclassical Model

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens - courses.cit.cornell.edu
t= 0 βtu (Ct, Lt), 0< β< 1(1) where Ct is commodity consumption in period t and Lt is leisure in
period t. Each household has a time endowment of one unit, which can be allocated for
leisure Lt or work Nt. u (C, L) is the momentary utility function or felicity function. Assume ...
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[PDF] ECON 614 MACROECONOMIC THEORY II: Measurement With Minimal Theory: Estimating The Dynamic Effects of Shocks

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens - courses.cit.cornell.edu
In this chapter we will focus on Vector Autoregressions (VARs), a class of statistical models
that capture the statistical properties of many macroeconomic time series without relying
explicitly on a particular economic theory. VARs are reduced form models, and it is ...
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DP8322 Credit Channels in a Liquidity Trap

K Mertens… - 2011 - cepr.org
We study liquidity trap dynamics driven by nonfundamental shifts in expectations in a model
with nominal rigidities, housing, credit frictions and a Taylor rule. Highly leveraged
borrowing through nominal debt backed by real estate collateral greatly magnifies the ...
Cached - All 2 versions

The Research Agenda: Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn on Fiscal Policy, Anticipation Effects, Expectations and Crisis

K Mertens… - EconomicDynamics Newsletter, 2011 - ideas.repec.org
Karel Mertens is an Assistant Professor at Cornell University. Karel's research has been
concerned with monetary and fiscal policy. Morten O. Ravn is a Professor of Economics at
University College London and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy ...
Cached - All 3 versions

[CITATION] ECON 614 MACROECONOMIC THEORY II: Models with Nominal Rigidities

K Mertens
Related articles - All 2 versions

DP7423 Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach

K Mertens… - 2009 - cepr.org
Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues
such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage.
One explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated. Due to ...
Cached - All 4 versions

[PDF] ECON 614 MACROECONOMIC THEORY II: Money and Output: Basic Facts and Flexible Price Models

[PDF] from cornell.edu
K Mertens - courses.cit.cornell.edu
The previous chapter presented models with no role for money and no predictions for
nominal variables. In this chapter we will analyze models that incorporate monetary factors
that allow for the analysis of price-level determination, inflation and monetary policy and ...
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DP7370 Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks

K Mertens… - 2009 - cepr.org
We provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United
States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-
convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise ...
Cached - All 4 versions

The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States

[PDF] from ucl.ac.uk
K Mertens… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States.
We distinguish between the effects of changes in personal and corporate income taxes
using a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. ...
Related articles - All 7 versions

Essays in applied macroeconomics

K Mertens - 2007 - cadmus.eui.eu
The first chapter,'How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary
Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence'is concerned with US monetary history and
the impact of institutional changes in the late 1970s and early 1980s on the monetary ...
Cached - Library Search - All 3 versions

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