MO Ravn… - Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002 - MIT Press
This paper studies how the Hodrick-Prescott filter should be adjusted when changing the
frequency of observations. It complements the results of Baxter and King (1999) with an
analytical analysis, demonstrating that the filter parameter should be adjusted by ...
A Mountford… - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
We propose and apply a new approach for analyzing the effects of fiscal policy using vector
autoregressions. Specifically, we use sign restrictions to identify a government revenue
shock as well as a government spending shock, while controlling for a generic business ...
H Uhlig - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005 - Elsevier
This paper proposes to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks by a new agnostic
method, imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of prices, nonborrowed
reserves and the federal funds rate in response to a monetary policy shock. No restrictions ...
L Ljungqvist… - American Economic Review, 2000 - JSTOR
This paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity-shock driven economies with
catching-up-with-the-Joneses utility functions. The optimal tax policy is shown to affect the
economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes, ie," cooling down" the economy with ...
CA Sims… - Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1991 - JSTOR
While technically p-values should not be interpreted as probablities, they often are, and their
usual asymptotic equivalence to Bayesian posterior tail probabilities provides an
approximate justification for doing so. In inference about possibly nonstationary dynamic ...
R Beetsma… - The Economic Journal, 1999 - Wiley Online Library
We use a stylised model to analyse the Stability and Growth Pact for countries that have
formed the European Monetary Union (EMU). In our model, shortsighted governments fail to
internalise the consequences of their debt policies for the common inflation rate fully. ...
M Lettau… - Review of Economic Dynamics, 2000 - Elsevier
Many asset pricing puzzles can be explained when habit formation is added to standard
preferences. We show that utility functions with a habit then gives rise to a puzzle of
consumption volatility in place of the asset pricing puzzles when agents can choose ...
H Uhlig - CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3296, 2002 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This Paper outlines some issues regarding the interaction of independent fiscal
authorities and one central bank in the European monetary union. It points out the
possibilities for coordination failures, ranging everywhere from potentially excessive ...
H Uhlig - Economic Theory, 1996 - Springer
Summary LetX (i), ie [0; 1] be a collection of identically distributed and pairwise uncorrelated
random variables with common finite meanµ and variance s 2. This paper shows the law of
large numbers, ie the fact that? 0 1 X (i) di= µ. It does so by interpreting the integral as a ...
H Uhlig - Journal of the European Economic Association, 2004 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract This paper contributes to the debate initiated by Galí in 1999. I provide a theory with
capital income taxation, labor hoarding as well as long-run shifts in the social attitudes to the
workplace—modelled as “leisure at the workplace”—to argue that there are other shocks ...
H Uhlig… - European Economic Review, 1996 - Elsevier
According to conventional economic wisdom, capital income taxes should be low. The
purpose of this paper is to cast doubt on this general conclusion and to show that theory can
also point in the opposite direction. The paper shows that under rather mild conditions, ...
M Lettau… - American Economic Review, 1999 - JSTOR
This paper studies decision-making with rules of thumb in the context of dynamic decision
problems and compares it to dynamic programming. A rule is a fixed mapping from a subset
of states into actions. Rules are compared by averaging over past experiences. This can ...
M Trabandt… - 2009 - nber.org
We compare Laffer curves for labor and capital taxation for the US, the EU-14 and individual
European countries, using a neoclassical growth model featuring" constant Frisch
elasticity"(CFE) preferences. We provide new tax rate data. The US can increase tax ...
H Uhlig - Econometric Theory, 1994 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract This paper summarizes recent Bayesian research on unit roots for the applied
macroeconomist in the way Campbell and Perron [8] summarized the classical unit roots
perspective. The appropriate choice of a prior is discussed. In recognizing a consensus ...
H Uhlig - Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1997 - JSTOR
This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to a vector autoregression with stochastic
volatility, where the multiplicative evolution of the precision matrix is driven by a multivariate
beta variate. Exact updating formulas are given to the nonlinear filtering of the precision ...
D Krueger… - 2003 - nber.org
This paper analyzes dynamic equilibrium risk sharing contracts between profit-maximizing
intermediaries and a large pool of ex-ante identical agents that face idiosyncratic income
uncertainty that makes them heterogeneous ex-post. In any given period, after having ...
A Scholl… - Journal of International Economics, 2008 - Elsevier
Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the
'delayed overshooting puzzle'and the 'forward discount puzzle'. We revisit the effects of
monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig's [Uhlig, H., 2005a. What are the ...
H Uhlig - American Economic Review, 2010 - economics.uchicago.edu
What is the impact of fiscal policy on the economy? How large are the “multipliers” of
government spending and tax cuts? This old question has recently received considerable
attention, in particular in the context of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act ( ...
CWJ Granger… - Journal of Econometrics, 1990 - Elsevier
RMWJ Beetsma, H Uhlig… - 1997 - arno.uvt.nl
Abstract We analyse the proposed “Stability Pact” for countries joining a European Monetary
Union (EMU). In an EMU shortsighted governments fail to fully internalise the inflationary
consequences of their debt policies. This results in excessive debt accumulation. ...
H Uhlig - The American economic review, 2006 - JSTOR
Germany was divided into three parts: West Germany, East Germany, and Berlin. These
three parts were united on October 3, 1990. Many forecasts regarding the future of Germany
have been made since then, ranging from the enthusiastic to the dour. It is time to take ...
H Uhlig - CEPR Discussion Papers, 1999 - ideas.repec.org
This paper proposes to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks by a
new``agnostic''method, imposing sign restrictions on the impulse responses of prices,
nonborrowed reserves and the federal funds rate in response to a monetary policy shock. ...
H Uhlig - Geografiska Annaler, 1961 - JSTOR
Geographisches Institutn Universitat Giessen the reach oXf the Atlantic climate, mainly
consisting of sandy, glacial and fluviolglacial deposilts, interrupted by wet stretches of
swamp or valley-floors with a high groundwater-level. Consequently, vast heath-lands, ...
M Lettau… - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2002 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract We use a log-normal framework to examine the effect of preferences on the market
price for risk, that is, the Sharpe ratio. In our framework, the Sharpe ratio can be calculated
directly from the elasticity of the stochastic discount factor with respect to consumption ...
F De Fiore… - ECB Working Paper No. 547, 2005 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with agency costs, where
heterogeneous firms choose among two alternative instruments of external finance-
corporate bonds and bank loans. We characterize the financing choice of firms and the ...
H Uhlig, R Riethmueller, M Schnetz… - 1984 - agris.fao.org
Go to AGRIS search. Giessener geographische Schriften (1984). Spontaneous and
planned settlement in Southeast Asia: forest clearing and recent pioneer colonization
in the ASEAN countries and 2 case studies on Thailand. ...
H Uhlig - draft, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, 2004 - econ.duke.edu
... Implications. Harald Uhlig Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften Humboldt Universität zu Berlin ...
uhlig@wiwi.hu-berlin.de Macroeconomics and Asset Markets: some Mutual Implications. Harald
Uhlig, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin. uhlig@wiwi.hu-berlin.de – p. 1/85 Page 2. ...
E Mönch… - CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4377, 2004 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This Paper is an exercise in dating the euro area business cycle on a monthly
basis. We construct several monthly European real GDP series, and then apply the Bry-
Boschan (1971) procedure. Using this method, we identify four business cycles. Studying ...
H Uhlig - 2009 - nber.org
The 2008 financial crisis is reminiscent of a bank run, but not quite. In particular, it is financial
institutions withdrawing deposits from some core financial institutions, rather than depositors
running on their local bank. These core financial institutions have invested the funds in ...
H Uhlig - manuscript Humboldt Unversity Berlin, 2003 - mendeley.com
Abstract This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real
GNP. It does so by searching for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain
the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP for horizons ...
H Uhlig - Econometric Theory, 1994 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract In this paper, we calculate Jeffreys prior for an AR (1) process with and without a
constant and a time trend when using the exact likelihood function. We show how this prior
can be calculated for the explosive region, even though the unconditional variance of the ...
H Uhlig… - Mountain Research and Development, 1995 - JSTOR
The effects of improved accessibility in high mountain areas have stimulated a discussion on
models that depict montane resource utilization, transformation of agricultural practices, and
settlement patterns. While significant changes in mountain communities are evident and ...
H Uhlig - SFB 649 Discussion Paper No. 2007-003, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the scope of a model with exogenous habit formation-or"
catching up with the Joneses," see Abel (1990)-to generate the observed equity premium as
well as other key macroeconomic facts. Along the way, I derive restrictions for four out of ...
H Uhlig - Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2000 - Elsevier
Should one think of zero nominal interest rates as an undesirable liquidity trap or as the
desirable Friedman rule? I use three different frameworks to discuss this issue. First, I restate
HL Cole and N. Kocherlakota's (1998, Fed. Res. Bank Minn. Quart. Rev., Spring, 2–10) ...
M Lettau, H Uhlig… - 1997 - arno.uvt.nl
Abstract Risk premia in the consumption capital asset pricing model depend on preferences
and dividend. We develop a decomposition which allows a separate treatment of both
components. We show that preferences alone determine the risk-return tradeoff measured ...
RG Donaldson… - Journal of Finance, 1993 - JSTOR
We develop a simple model in which the presence of portfolio insurers in a market of risk-
averse traders leads to multiple equilibria for the pricing of financial assets and can cause
an increase in volatility, including insurance-induced price drops. We demonstrate, ...
H Uhlig - Journal of Comparative Economics, 2008 - Elsevier
Fifteen years after German reunification, the facts about slow regional convergence have
born out the prediction of Barro [Barro, Robert J., 1991. Eastern Germany's long haul. The
Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones and Company, May 3], except that migration out of East ...
E Canton… - Journal of Economics, 1999 - Springer
Newly estaboished firms often try to secure their market position by building up a base of
loyal customers. While recessions may not destroy technological leadership, they may be
harmful for such firm-customer relationships. Without such customer bases, these firms ...
T Drautzburg… - 2011 - nber.org
We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment
Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (2007) New Keynesian
model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government ...
[CITATION] Leisure, Growth, and Long-run Risk
H Uhlig - Unpublished Manuscript, University of Chicago, 2007
H Uhlig - Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung: Methoden und …, 2003 - books.google.com
How well do we understand business cycles and growth? One benchmark answer is
provided by the stochastic neoclassical growth theory or real business cycle theory. Here,
growth is understood to result from the steady progress of productivity, while business ...
H Uhlig - Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public …, 1998 - ideas.repec.org
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to
view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are
not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
H Uhlig - 2002 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: In 2001, the Fed has lowered interest rates in a series of cuts, starting from 6.5 per
cent at the end of 2000 to 2.0 per cent by early November. This paper asks whether the
Federal Reserve Bank has been surprising the markets, taking as given the conventional ...
A Hornstein… - German Economic Review, 2000 - Wiley Online Library
What is the source of interest rate volatility? Why do low interest rates precede business
cycle booms? Most observers tend to assume that monetary policy is largely responsible for
it. Indeed, a standard real business cycle model delivers rather small fluctuations in real ...
H Uhlig - Discussion Paper, 1995 - ideas.repec.org
One of the many problems facing the countries in transition from socialism to capitalism after
the initial phase of privatization and restructuring is the lack of proven entrepreneurial talent
in addition to a low initial level of capital. New entrepreneurs might find it hard to finance ...
H Uhlig - Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter …, 2004 - ideas.repec.org
This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real GNP. It does
so by searching for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of
the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP for horizons between 0 and 5 ...
A Scott… - European Economic Review, 1999 - Elsevier
The aim of this paper is to construct theoretical models which help to shed light on the recent
criticisms of volatile investment flows. We do not make any empirical attempt to establish the
existence or gauge the importance of the adverse effects of volatile investment flows nor ...
JB Berk… - Journal of Economic Theory, 1993 - faculty-gsb.stanford.edu
276 BERK AND UHLIG retrade, it may be possible for agents to achieve the complete markets
equi- librium even if the number of states far exceeds the number of assets (see Arrow [1], Radner
[11], Kreps [8] and Duffie and Huang [6]). Besides dynamic completeness, this result ...
H Uhlig - Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 1969 - JSTOR
In spite of the complexity of Asian agricultural landscapes, it is possible to recognize certain
generalized types. These are studied comparatively by means of landscape profiles and
land-use diagrams, drawing on examples from Kashmir, Jaunsar-Bawar, North Thailand ...
H Uhlig… - 1997 - arno.uvt.nl
Abstract This paper examines the role of long term debt for the political support of a
monetary union or, more generally, an inflation-reduction policy. The central idea is that the
decision about membership in the union leads to a redistribution between debtors and ...
L Ljungqvist… - 2009 - nber.org
Campbell and Cochrane (1999) formulate a model that successfully explains a wide variety
of asset pricing puzzles, by augmenting the standard power utility function with a time-
varying subsistence level, or" external habit", that adapts nonlinearly to current and past ...
L Bovenberg… - NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics …, 2008 - nber.org
One can distinguish pension systems along three dimensions (see Lindbeck and Persson
[2003]): defined benefit versus defined contribution, funded versus pay as you go, and
actuarial versus nonactuarial. The first dimension involves intergenerational risk sharing: ...
[CITATION] The monetary policy strategy of the ECB reconsidered: Monitoring the European Central Bank 5
J Galı, S Gerlach, J Rotemberg, H Uhlig… - CEPR London, 2004
H Gersbach… - Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2006 - Elsevier
We study financial intermediation in which sufficient sorting is impossible. We identify a new
type of market failure that may occur even when returns of investing entrepreneurs are
verifiable. Moreover, we suggest that the nature of competition determines the contracts ...
H Uhlig - Geoforum, 1970 - Elsevier
Abstract Rapid scientific and social development has stimulated renewed discussion of the
theoretical foundations of geography. It therefore appears appropriate to open a discussion
forum of the geo-sciences by outlining the organisational plan and the system of ...
[CITATION] Die Siedlungen des ländlichen Raumes: Rural settlements. L'habitat rural
International Working Group for the Geographical … - 1972 - Lenz-Verl.
H Uhlig… - 2002 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We investigate the effects of fiscal policy surprises for US data, using vector
autoregressions. We overcome the difficulties that changes in fiscal policy may manifest
themselves in variables other than fiscal variables first and that fiscal variables may ...
P Teles… - 2010 - nber.org
This paper investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We argue that it is,
but that the slippage is not negligible. For countries with low inflation, the relationship
between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. A correction for ...
H Uhlig - Mountain research and development, 1986 - agris.fao.org
Go to AGRIS search. Mountain research and development (Aug 1986). Do accessibility
models make altitudinal zonation models obsolete? Uhlig, H. Date of publication, Aug
1986. AGRIS Categories, Land economics and policies. ...
[CITATION] Asset pricing with Epstein-Zin preferences
H Uhlig - Manuscript, Humboldt University, 2006
H Uhlig - 2009 - nber.org
This paper compares monetary policy in the US and EMU during the last decade, employing
an estimated hybrid New Keynesian cash-in-advance model, driven by five shocks. It
appears that the difference between the two monetary policies between 1998 and 2006 is ...
[CITATION] Asset Prices and Business Cycles: Successes and Pitfalls of the General Equilibrium Approach
M Lettau… - CentER, Tilburg University, 1996
L Ljungqvist… - Stockholm School of Economics and Tilburg …, 1999 - Citeseer
Abstract Campbell and Cochrane 1999 propose a preference speci cation that can explain a
wide variety of asset pricing puzzles such as the high equity premium. They augment the
basic power utility function with a time-varying subsistence level, or habit", which is in the ...
H Uhlig - Journal of Macroeconomics, 2010 - Elsevier
This paper is a non-technical and somewhat philosophical essay, that seeks to investigate
the relationship between economics and reality. More precisely, it asks how reality in the
form of empirical evidence does or does not influence economic thinking and theory. In ...
A Scholl… - Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, 2006 - ideas.repec.org
Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found the †œdelayed
overshootingâ€, the †œforward discount†and the †œexchange rate†puzzles. We
revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig's (2005) ...
H Gersbach… - The Scandinavian Journal of …, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
We examine the coexistence of banks and financial markets by studying a credit market
where the qualities of investment projects are not observable and the investment decisions
of entrepreneurs are not contractible. Standard banks can alleviate moral-hazard ...
H Uhlig… - 1992 - princeton.edu
Abstract This paper summarizes recent Bayesian research on unit roots for the applied
macroeconomist in the way Campbell and Perron [9] have recently summarized the classical
unit roots perspective. The approach to the unit root problem should depend on the focus ...
RG Donaldson… - Papers, 1991 - ideas.repec.org
No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three options: 1. Check below under "Related
research" whether another version of this item is available online. 2. Check on the ...
N Yanagawa… - European Economic Review, 1996 - en.scientificcommons.org
[CITATION] Competitive risk sharing with costly recontracting
D Krueger… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005
M Artis, F Canova, J Gali, F Giavazzi… - CEPR …, 2003 - ciber.fuqua.duke.edu
The Centre for Economic Policy Research has formed a committee to set the dates of the
euro area business cycle. Its mission is to establish the chronology of recessions and
expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries plus Greece for 1970-1998 and ...
[CITATION] 'A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily', Tilburg University
H Uhlig - Center for Economic Research, Discussion Paper, 1995
PA Ahmadi… - manuscript, University of Chicago, 2007 - wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de
Abstract In this paper we estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks in a Bayesian Factor-
Augmented vector autoregression (BFAVAR). We propose to employ as an identification
strategy sign restrictions on the impulse response function of pertinent variables according ...
RA Braun… - 2006 - repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp
This paper poses the following question: Is it possible to improve welfare by increasing taxes
and throwing away the revenues? This paper demonstrates that the answer to this question
is" yes." We show that there may be welfare gains from taxing capital income even when ...
M Trabandt… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2011 - Elsevier
Laffer curves for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries are compared, using
a neoclassical growth model featuring “constant Frisch elasticity”(CFE) preferences. New tax
rate data is provided. The US can maximally increase tax revenues by 30% with labor ...
L Ljungqvist, H Uhlig… - 1996 - wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Abstract This paper examines the role for tax policies in productivity-shock driven economies
with catching-up-with-the-Joneses" utility functions. The optimal tax policy is shown to a ect
the economy countercyclically via procyclical taxes, ie, traditional Keynesian demand ...
[CITATION] Increasing the capital income tax may lead to faster growth
U Harald… - European Economic Review, 1996
[CITATION] Transition and financial collapse
H Uhlig - CESifo Working Paper Series, 1993 - CESifo Group Munich
M Lettau… - revised from CEPR Discussion Paper, 1999 - Citeseer
Abstract This paper proposes a parametric implementation of the Hansen and Jagannathan
(1991) volatility bounds based on log-normal distributions. We obtain analytical expressions
for the bounds as well as stochastic discount factors. Using this framework we analyze the ...
[CITATION] Costly information acquisition, stock prices and neoclassical growth
HF Uhlig - 1990 - University of Minnesota
[CITATION] Competitive Risk Sharing Contracts with Costly Recontracting
D Krueger… - 2000 - mimeo, Stanford University
[CITATION] Basic material for the terminology of the agricultural landscape
H Uhlig, C Lienau, HJ Wenzel… - 1978 - Lenz Verlag
[CITATION] What are the E® ects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?"
A Mountford… - 2002 - mimeo
H Gersbach, H Uhlig… - 1997 - arno.uvt.nl
Abstract We study a credit market with adverse selection and moral hazard where sufficient
sorting is impossible. The crucial novel feature is the competition between lenders in their
choice of contracts offered. Qualities of investment projects are not observable by banks ...
[CITATION] tNew Evidence on the Puzzles: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates, uComputing in Economics and Finance 2006 (5)
A Scholl… - Society for Computational Economics, 2006
[CITATION] What are the Effects of Monetary Policy? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure” draft
H Uhlig - CentER, Tilburg University, 1997
H Uhlig… - presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of …, 2010 - frbsf.org
1 Distortionary taxation. 2 “Rule-of-thumb”(RoT) households: consume earnings each
period. 3 Baseline: 25% RoT's, receive 25% of transfers. 4 Fiscal feedback rules for taxation.
5 Government capital. 6 ZLB. Benchmark 8 quarters. Consider 0, 4, 8, 12, endog. Fiscal ...
[CITATION] Regional Labor Markets, Network Externalities and Migration: The Case of German Reunification. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, SFB 649 (Economic …
H Uhlig - 2006 - Discussion Paper
[CITATION] Insulating the financial sector from the European debt crisis: Eurobonds without public guarantee
T Beck, H Uhlig… - VoxEU. org, 2011
[CITATION] What are the results of monetary policy shocks on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure
H Uhlig - 1999 - CEPR Discussion Paper 2137
[CITATION] The monetary policy of the ECB reconsidered: Monitoring the European Central Bank 5
J Gali, S Gerlach, J Rotemberg, H Uhlig… - Centre for Economic Policy …, 2004
[CITATION] Some fiscal calculus. draft
H Uhlig - 2009 - May
[CITATION] kWhat Drives GNP
H Uhlig - 2003 - l EABCN working paper
[CITATION] What Drives GNP?
H Uhlig - Unpublished manuscript, Euro Area Business Cycle …, 2003
[CITATION] 040" Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention" by Bartosz Maćkowiak
J Harald Uhlig - 2005
[CITATION] presentation to the European Economic Association
H Uhlig - August, manuscript, 2003
[CITATION] Economics and reality. w16416
H Uhlig - 2010 - National Bureau of Economic …
H Uhlig - Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 2004 - wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Inflation targeting has become the new gospel for conducting monetary policy. Its merits
have been stressed repeatedly by a large literature, most recently by Michael Woodford
(2003). The appeal is obvious. Monetary economists have concluded that, by and large, ...
[CITATION] Types of Field Patterns
H Uhlig… - Vol. I of Basic Material for the Terminology of the …, 1967
M Burda, W Güth, G Kirchsteiger… - Homo Oeconomicus, 2005 - ecares.org
Abstract One of the long-standing questions in economics is whether or not wages will fall
sufficiently in recessions so as to avoid increases in unemployment. Put differently, if the
competitive market wage declines, will employers simply force their employees to accept ...
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