 | Professor of Economics and Political Science, California Institute of Technology Verified email at caltech.edu Cited by 392 |
Abstract Analyses of the effects of election outcomes on the economy have been hampered
by the problem that economic outcomes also influence elections. We sidestep these
problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators caused by clearly exogenous ...
KJ Arrow, R Forsythe, M Gorham… - … -NEW YORK THEN …, 2008 - arlingtoneconomics.com
Information revelation through time. Data are from the Iowa Electronic Markets for markets
predicting the two-party vote shares from the 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential
elections (19). The vertical axis plots the average absolute difference between the market ...
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds
provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winning—longshots are overbet, while
favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational ...
S Ansolabehere,
EC Snowberg… - Legislative Studies …, 2006 - Wiley Online Library
Page 1. 469 Television and Incumbency Advantage LEGISLATIVE STUDIES QUARTERLY,
XXXI, 4, November 2006 469 STEPHEN ANSOLABEHERE Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ERIK C. SNOWBERG Stanford University JAMES M. SNYDER, JR. ...
S Ansolabehere,
EC Snowberg… - Public Opinion Quarterly, 2005 - AAPOR
... Erik Snowberg would like to thank Dan Arnon and Mathieu Gagné for founding Oryxa, a company
where I could earn my livelihood while still pursuing my life. Professor Ansolabehere and Professor
Snyder thank the National Science Foundation for its financial support. ...
This chapter examines a new class of markets at the intersection of traditional betting and
traditional financial markets. We call these 'prediction markets'. Like both financial and
betting markets, prediction markets focus on uncertain outcomes and involve trading in ...
K Arrow, S Sunder, R Forsythe, R Litan… - AEI-Brookings Joint …, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the
outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets
as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public ...
To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic
policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential
elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely ...
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event
studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been
used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party ...
[CITATION] Examining explanations of a market anomaly: preferences or perceptions
E Snowberg… - Handbook of sports and lottery markets, 2008
[CITATION] Explaining the favorite-longshot bias: Is it risk-love
S Ansolabehere,
M Meredith… - annual meeting of the …, 2011 - bpub.wharton.upenn.edu
Abstract We develop an incomplete-information theory of economic voting, where voters'
perceptions of macro-economic performance are affected by economic conditions of people
similar to themselves. Our theory alleviates two persistent issues in the literature: it shows ...
S Ansolabehere,
M Meredith… - 2008 - books.google.com
The literature on economic voting notes that voters' subjective evaluations of the overall
state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic
experiences are not (Kinder and Kiewiet 1979, 1981). Missing from this literature is a ...
[CITATION] “The Favorite-Longshot Bias: Understanding a Market Anomaly
E Snowberg… - Efficiency of Sports and Lottery Markets, edited by …, 2007
B Daley… - Discussion Papers, 2007 - hss.caltech.edu
Abstract We develop a dynamic multi-dimensional signaling model of campaign finance in
which candidates can signal their ability by enacting policy and/or by raising and spending
campaign funds, both of which are costly. Our model departs from the existing literature in ...
S Ansolabehere,
M Meredith… - annual meeting of the …, 2010 - sas.upenn.edu
Abstract Survey questions about quantities offer a number of advantages over more
common qualitative questions. However, concerns about survey respondents' abilities to
accurately report numbers have limited the use of quantitative questions. This paper ...
N Malhotra… - 2010 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: To explore the influence of primary results during the 2008 nomination process we
leverage a previously unused methodology-the analysis of prediction market contracts. The
unique structure of prediction markets allows us to address two unexplored questions. ...
Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers. (2006). prediction money markets incentives horseracing.
B Daley… - Journal of Law, Economics, and …, 2011 - Oxford Univ Press
Abstract We develop a dynamic multidimensional signaling model of campaign finance in
which candidates can signal their ability by enacting policy and/or by raising and spending
campaign funds, both of which are costly. Our model departs from the existing literature in ...
G Padró-i-Miquel… - 2009 - imtlucca.it
Abstract We examine the accountability of politicians to their parties when parties are able to
discipline incumbents by dismissing them at no cost. The fundamental tension between
parties and their politicians is that while parties want politicians who will implement the ...
Abstract This paper proposes a dual-utility theory of parties in a legislature. In this theory a
legislator has preferences over both actions and policy outcomes. Specifically, a legislator's
utility is determined by position taking—his own votes—and by partisan utility which ...
S Chassang, GP i Miquel… - 2009 - isites.harvard.edu
Abstract This paper explores how to run randomized experiments when outcomes depend
significantly on unobserved effort decisions taken by agents. Our first set of results show that
making selection explicit rather than implicit can generate greater information. This ...
Abstract When racial groups differ in terms of their political sensitivity—the propensity of
group members to change their vote based on changes in a candidate's redistributive
platform—the racial composition of a political jurisdiction affects redistributive policy even ...
GP i Miquel,
E Snowberg - Journal of theoretical politics, 2012 - jtp.sagepub.com
Abstract We develop a model of electoral accountability with primaries. Prior to the general
election, the supporters of each of two parties decide which candidates to nominate. We
show that supporters suffer from a fundamental tension: while they want politicians who ...
E Snowberg - Journal of Law, Economics and Organization - ideas.repec.org
We develop a dynamic multidimensional signaling model of campaign finance in which
candidates can signal their ability by enacting policy and/or by raising and spending
campaign funds, both of which are costly. Our model departs from the existing literature in ...
Abstract To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence
economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to
Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means ...
Political economists interested in discerning the effects of election outcomes on the
economy have been hampered by the problem that economic outcomes also influence
elections. We sidestep these problems by analyzing movements in economic indicators ...
E Snowberg - Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2012 - econpapers.repec.org
We develop a model of electoral accountability with primaries. Prior to the general election,
the supporters of each of two parties decide which candidates to nominate. We show that
supporters suffer from a fundamental tension: while they want politicians who will faithfully ...
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event
studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been
used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party ...
GPÃ i Miquel… - Journal of Theoretical Politics, 2010 - ideas.repec.org
We develop a model of electoral accountability with primaries. Prior to the general election,
the supporters of each of two parties decide which candidates to nominate. We show that
supporters suffer from a fundamental tension: while they want politicians who will faithfully ...
Abstract We develop a citizen-candidate model of redistribution between both rich and poor
citizens, and between legislative districts, where citizens that are more productive in the
private sector are also more effective at directing transfers to their district if elected to a ...
N Malhotra… - Citeseer
Abstract To explore the influence of primary and caucus results during the 2008 nomination
process we leverage a previously unused methodology—the analysis of prediction market
contracts. The unique structure of prediction markets allows us to address two questions. ...
[CITATION] Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections
E Snowberg - 2008 - gradworks.umi.com
Abstract: Formal models in political economy are often criticized for their reductionism.
Proponents of other methodologies express displeasure that complex figures like politicians,
voters, and other actors are rendered in stark terms by formal models. The following three ...
New treatments can affect patient outcomes through three distinct channels:(i) direct
therapeutic effects,(ii) changes in conscious or unconscious behavior accompanying
treatment, and (iii) interaction effects between treatment and changes in behavior. We ...
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds
provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winning—longshots are overbet, while
favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational ...
S Ansolabehere,
E Snowberg… - 2003 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper examines evidence of statistical bias in newspaper reporting on
campaign finance. We compile data on all dollar amounts for campaign expenditures,
contributions, and receipts reported in the five largest circulation newspapers in the United ...
G Padró-i-Miquel… - 2009 - hss.caltech.edu
Abstract We examine a fundamental tension between parties and their politicians. While
parties want politicians who will implement the party's agenda in office, they also need
politicians who can win elections. Therefore parties might be forced to keep a charismatic ...
Abstract: We develop an incomplete-information theory of economic voting, where voters'
perceptions of macro-economic performance are affected by economic conditions of people
similar to themselves. Our theory alleviates two persistent issues in the literature: it shows ...
[CITATION] What Do Voters Believe About the Economy?
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