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Bayesian analysis of DSGE models

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S An… - Econometric Reviews, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate
and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the
estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian ...
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Testing for indeterminacy: An application to US monetary policy

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TA Lubik… - The American Economic Review, 2004 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: This paper considers a prototypical New Keynesian model, in which the
equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is" passive." The likelihood-based estimation
of dynamic equilibrium models is extended to allow for indeterminacies and sunspot ...
Cited by 503 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 37 versions

Loss function‐based evaluation of DSGE models

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F Schorfheide - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2000 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract In this paper we propose a Bayesian econometric procedure for the evaluation and
comparison of DSGE models. Unlike in many previous econometric approaches we
explicitly take into account the possibility that the DSGE models are misspecified and ...
Cited by 397 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 15 versions

[PDF] On the fit of new Keynesian models

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M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - Journal of Business and …, 2007 - ASA
This article provides new tools for the evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
(DSGE) models and applies them to a large-scale new Keynesian model. We approximate
the DSGE model by a vector autoregression, and then systematically relax the implied ...
Cited by 362 - Related articles - View as HTML - Library Search - BL Direct - All 62 versions

[PDF] A Bayesian look at the new open economy macroeconomics

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T Lubik… - 2006 - nber.org
We develop a small-scale, two-country model and estimate it based on US and Euro area
data to study the magnitude of nominal rigidities; the transmission of monetary policy shocks,
as well as demand and supply shocks; and the determinants of exchange rate fluctuations ...
Cited by 311 - Related articles - All 25 versions

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation

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TA Lubik… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007 - Elsevier
We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy
using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and the UK. We consider generic Taylor-type rules, where the ...
Cited by 280 - Related articles - All 19 versions

Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS*

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M Del Negro… - International Economic Review, 2004 - Wiley Online Library
This article uses a simple New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as
a prior for a vector autoregression, and shows that the resulting model is competitive with
standard benchmarks in terms of forecasting, and can be used for policy analysis.
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Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models

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TA Lubik… - Journal of Economic dynamics and control, 2003 - Elsevier
We provide a computationally simple method of analyzing the effects of fundamental and
sunspot shocks in linear rational expectations models when the equilibrium is indeterminate.
Under indeterminacy sunspots can affect model dynamics through endogenous forecast ...
Cited by 134 - Related articles - All 15 versions

Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)

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M Del Negro… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008 - Elsevier
We discuss prior elicitation for the parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
(DSGE) models, and provide a method for constructing prior distributions for a subset of
these parameters from beliefs about steady-state relationships and second moments of ...
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Learning and monetary policy shifts

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F Schorfheide - Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005 - Elsevier
This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which monetary policy
follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime switches in the target inflation
rate. Two specifications are considered: agents know the current state of monetary policy ( ...
Cited by 103 - Related articles - Library Search - All 12 versions

Learning-by-doing as a propagation mechanism

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Y Chang, JF Gomes… - The American economic …, 2002 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: This paper suggests that skill accumulation through past work experience, or"
learning-by-doing"(LBD), can provide an important propagation mechanism in a dynamic
stochastic general-equilibrium model, as the current labor supply affects future productivity ...
Cited by 105 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 36 versions

Non‐stationary Hours in a DSGE Model

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Y Chang, T Doh… - Journal of Money, Credit and …, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
We are thankful to Martin Eichenbaum and Robert Vigfusson, who kindly provided their data.
We also thank Ken West (co-editor) and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.
Chang gratefully acknowledges the Research Grant of the School of Economics at Seoul ...
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Monetary policy analysis with potentially misspecified models

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M Del Negro… - 2007 - nber.org
Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)
models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs
and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. This paper ...
Cited by 56 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 105 versions

Labor-supply shifts and economic fluctuations

[PDF] from 199.169.211.101
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Y Chang… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003 - Elsevier
We propose a new VAR identification scheme that distinguishes shifts of and movements
along the labor demand schedule to identify labor-supply shocks. According to our VAR
analysis of post-war US data, labor-supply shifts account for about 30 percent of the ...
Cited by 53 - Related articles - Library Search - All 24 versions

VAR forecasting under misspecification

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F Schorfheide - Journal of Econometrics, 2005 - Elsevier
The paper considers multi-step forecasting of a stationary vector process under a quadratic
loss function with a collection of finite-order vector autoregressions (VAR). Under severe
misspecification it is preferable to use the multi-step loss function also for parameter ...
Cited by 40 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Sticky prices versus monetary frictions: An estimation of policy trade-offs

[PDF] from philadelphiafed.org
SB Aruoba… - 2009 - nber.org
We develop a two-sector monetary model with a centralized and decentralized market.
Activities in the centralized market resemble those in a standard New Keynesian economy
with price rigidities. In the decentralized market agents engage in bilateral exchanges for ...
Cited by 33 - Related articles - Library Search - All 38 versions

[CITATION] VBayesian Analysis of DSGE ModelsV

S An… - 2006 - mimeo
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[PDF] How Good Is What You've Got? DGSE-VAR as a Toolkit for Evaluating DSGE Models

[PDF] from nyfedeconomists.org
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M Del Negro… - … REVIEW-FEDERAL RESERVE …, 2006 - nyfedeconomists.org
Smets and Wouters (2003) applied the newly developed Bayesian methods to a DSGE
model with enough nominal and real frictions that their specification had a good chance of
fitting major aggregate time series in a traditional macroeconometric sense. In fact, the ...
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[CITATION] Do central banks respond to exchange rates? A structural investigation

TA Lubik… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003 - Citeseer
... Save to List; Add to Collection; Correct Errors; Monitor Changes. by Thomas A. Lubik , Frank
Schorfheide. Venue: Journal of Monetary Economics. Citations: 24 - 1 self. ...
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[PDF] DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve

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F Schorfheide - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic …, 2008 - iwh-halle.de
Abstract This paper surveys estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) parameters
that have been obtained by fitting fully specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
(DSGE) models to US data. We examine various sources of identification in the context of ...
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[PDF] Take your model bowling: forecasting with general equilibrium models

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M Del Negro… - ECONOMIC REVIEW-FEDERAL …, 2003 - frbatlanta.org
36 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ECONOMICREVIEW Fourth Quarter 2003 ifications that
are consistent with a dynamic general equilibrium. In fact, a linearized DSGE model can be
closely approximated by a VAR with a sufficiently large number of lags. The VAR ...
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[PDF] Bayesian Methods for Macroeconometrics

[PDF] from eabcn.org
F Schorfheide - The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Second …, 2008 - eabcn.org
• We present a modified stochastic growth model in which hours worked have a stochastic
trend, generated by a non-stationary labor supply shock.• Based on output and hours data
we compute posterior odds for four versions of the stochastic growth model obtained by ...
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[BOOK] Forming priors for DSGE models (and how it affects the assessment of nominal rigidities)

[PDF] from frb.org
M Del Negro, F Schorfheide… - 2006 - app.ny.frb.org
Abstract: In Bayesian analysis of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models,
prior distributions for some of the taste-and-technology parameters can be obtained from
microeconometric or presample evidence, but it is difficult to elicit priors for the parameters ...
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[PDF] Bayesian macroeconometrics

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M Del Negro… - prepared for the Handbook of …, 2010 - econ.upenn.edu
One of the goals of macroeconometric analysis is to provide quantitative answers to
substantive macroeconomic questions. Answers to some questions, such as whether gross
domestic product (GDP) will decline over the next two quarters, can be obtained with ...
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[CITATION] Do central banks target exchange rates? A structural investigation

T Lubik… - Manuscript, University of Pennsylvania, 2003
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Estimation and evaluation of DSGE models: progress and challenges

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F Schorfheide - 2011 - nber.org
This paper is based on a lecture delivered at the 2010 Econometric Society World Congress
in Shanghai. It draws extensively from joint work with Boragan Aruoba and Marco Del
Negro. I would like to thank Harald Uhlig and participants of the World Congress session ...
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Estimation with overidentifying inequality moment conditions

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HR Moon… - Journal of Econometrics, 2009 - Elsevier
This paper derives limit distributions of empirical likelihood estimators for models in which
inequality moment conditions provide overidentifying information. We show that the use of
this information leads to a reduction of the asymptotic mean-squared estimation error and ...
Cited by 13 - Related articles - All 13 versions

Methods versus substance: measuring the effects of technology shocks on hours

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JV Ríos-Rull, F Schorfheide, C Fuentes-Albero… - 2009 - nber.org
In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to
assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating
fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how ...
Cited by 11 - Related articles - Library Search - All 26 versions

Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder

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S An… - Econometric Reviews, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
We would like to thank all the discussants for their stimulating comments. While our article to
a large extent reviews current practice of Bayesian analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General
Equilibrium (DSGE) models the discussants provide many ideas to improve upon the ...
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DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables

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F Schorfheide, K Sill… - International Journal of Forecasting, 2010 - Elsevier
This paper develops and illustrates a simple method of generating a DSGE model-based
forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use
auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to ...
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Boosting your instruments: estimation with overidentifying inequality moment conditions

[PDF] from usc.edu
H Moon… - 2006 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper derives limit distributions of empirical likelihood estimators for models in
which inequality moment conditions provide overidentifying information. We show that the
use of this information leads to a reduction of the asymptotic mean-squared estimation ...
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Policy predictions if the model does not fit

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M Negro… - Journal of the European Economic …, 2005 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract This paper uses a novel method for conducting policy analysis with potentially
misspecified DSGE models and applies it to a simple New Keynesian DSGE model. We
illustrate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions on the policy invariance of model ...
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[BOOK] A Unified Econometric Framework for the evaluation of DSGE Models

F Schorfheide… - 1999 - economics.sas.upenn.edu
* Correspondence: c/o University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics, Philadelphia,
PA 19104-6297. E-mail: schorf@ ssc. upenn. edu. URL: http://www. econ. upenn. edu/~
schorf. This paper is based on Chapter 4 of my Ph. D. dissertation. I wish to thank my ...
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Inflation dynamics in a small open economy model under inflation targeting: Some evidence from Chile

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M Del Negro… - … Conference of the Central Bank of …, 2008 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Galí and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik
and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to ...
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Minimum distance estimation of nonstationary time series models

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HR Moon… - Econometric Theory, 2002 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract This paper analyzes the limit distribution of minimum distance (MD) estimators for
nonstationary time series models that involve nonlinear parameter restrictions. A rotation for
the restricted parameter space is constructed to separate the components of the MD ...
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Inference for VARs identified with sign restrictions

[PDF] from philadelphiafed.org
HR Moon, F Schorfheide, E Granziera… - 2011 - nber.org
There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions
(SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous
variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that ...
Cited by 8 - Related articles - Library Search - All 31 versions

Rejoinder

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M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - Journal of Business …, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
6. CONCLUSION The improvement of structural time series models for macroeconomic
policy analysis is a central task if time series analysis is to retain its importance for economic
policy making. The authors are to be commended for having taken on this task. Although I ...
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On the fit and forecasting performance of New Keynesian models

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M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - ECB Working Paper No …, 2004 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: The paper provides new tools for the evaluation of DSGE models, and applies it to
a large-scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with
price and wage stickiness and capital accumulation. Specifically, we approximate the ...
Cited by 7 - Related articles - All 25 versions

Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

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E Herbst… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict
comovements among key macroeconomic variables. The authors construct posterior ...
Cited by 7 - Related articles - All 14 versions

[BOOK] Computing Sunspots in Linear Rational Expectations Models

[PDF] from upenn.edu
TA Lubik, F Schorfheide… - 2001 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We provide a computationally simple method of including and analyzing the effects
of sunspot shocks in linear rational expectations models when the equilibrium is
indeterminate. Under non uniqueness sunspots can affect model dynamics through ...
Cited by 6 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search - All 16 versions

[PDF] Insights from an Estimated Search-Based Monetary Model with Nominal Rigidities

[PDF] from nber.org
SB Aruoba… - University of Maryland, 2007 - nber.org
Abstract We develop a search-based monetary dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE)
model with nominal rigidities by introducing the fundamental frictions that generate money
demand in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian DSGE model. We use Bayesian ...
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Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to US Monetary Policy: Reply

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TA Lubik… - The American Economic Review, 2007 - JSTOR
The comment by Andreas Beyer and Roger EA Farmer (2007) rightly points out some
fundamental identification problems related to linear rational expectations (LRE) models and
illustrates these problems in the context of a simple example. The identification problem is ...
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Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique

[PDF] from tamu.edu
Y Chang, SB Kim… - 2010 - nber.org
This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of"
structural''parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal
policy regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and ...
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[PDF] Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs: forecasting and identification “

[PDF] from econometricsociety.org
M Del Negro… - 2002 - econometricsociety.org
Abstract Ingram and Whiteman (1994) have shown that priors from DSGE models can be
helpful in forecasting. However, Ingram and Whiteman's approach applies only geared
toward trend-stationary, reduced-form VARs and a subset of DSGE models, namely those ...
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[CITATION] Econometric Modeling of Macroeconomic Aggregates

F Schorfheide - 1998 - en.scientificcommons.org
Publication View. 31450826. Econometric modeling of macroeconomic aggregates /
(1998). Schorfheide, Frank. Abstract. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Yale University, 1998.
Publication details. Download, http://worldcat.org/oclc/79259544. ...
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Labor shifts and economic fluctuations

Y Chang… - Working Paper, 2003 - ideas.repec.org
We propose a new VAR identification scheme that distinguishes shifts of and movements
along the labor demand schedule to identify labor-supply shocks. According to our VAR
analysis of post-war US data, labor-supply shifts account for about 30 percent of the ...
Cited by 4 - Related articles - Cached - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 5 versions

[CITATION] On the fit and performance of new Keynesian models

M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, …, 2004
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - 2004 - Working Paper, 2004-37 (December …
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy Model under Inflation Targeting: Some Evidence from Chile

MD Negro… - Central Banking, Analysis, and …, 2009 - econpapers.repec.org
Related works: Working Paper: Inflation dynamics in a small open-economy model under inflation
targeting: some evidence from Chile (2008) Working Paper: Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open
Economy Model Under Inflation Targeting: Some Evidence From Chile (2008) This item ...
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[CITATION] mA Bayesian Look at New Open Econ& omy Macroeconomics, nNBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, edited by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff

T Lubik… - 2006 - MIT Press
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[CITATION] Maxym Kryshko (2010),“DSGE Model Based Forecasting of Non-Modeled Variables,”

Full text - MIT Libraries
F Schorfheide… - International Journal of Forecasting
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[PDF] Empirical likelihood estimation with inequality moment constraints

[PDF] from princeton.edu
HR Moon… - 2005 - princeton.edu
Abstract This paper extends moment-based estimation procedures to models in which
overidentifying information is provided by inequality moment conditions. We derive the large
sample distribution theory for the maximum empirical likelihood estimator of the finite- ...
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Persistence

Y Chang, J Gomes… - Econometric Society World …, 2000 - ideas.repec.org
To generate persistence we augment the standard real business cycle (RBC) model with
a``learning by doing''(LBD) mechanism, where current labor supply affects workers' future
labor productivity. Our econometric analysis shows that the LBD model fits aggregate data ...
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[PDF] Evaluating Asset Pricing Implications of DSGE Models

[PDF] from econometricsociety.org
K Reffett… - Econometric Society World …, 2000 - econometricsociety.org
Abstract This paper conducts an econometric evaluation of structural macroeconomic asset
pricing models. A one-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with
habit formation and capital adjustment costs is considered. Based on the log-linearized ...
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[PDF] Testing for indeterminacy in linear rational expectations models

[PDF] from eea-esem.com
T Lubik… - Manuscript, 2002 - eea-esem.com
Abstract It is well known that linear rational expectations (RE) models can have multiple
equilibria. If the equilibrium is not unique it is possible to construct sunspot equilibria in
which stochastic disturbances that are unrelated to fundamental shocks influence model ...
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[CITATION] On the fit and performance of new Keynesian models

FS Del Negro Marco, F Smets… - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta working …, 2004
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] Calibration, Estimation, and the Effects of Technology Shocks

JV Rıos-Rull, F Schorfheide, C Fuentes-Albero… - Manuscript. University of …, 2007
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Testing for Indeterminacy: A Reply to Comments by A. Beyer and R. Farmer

TA Lubik… - The American Economic Review, forthcoming, 2006
Cited by 2 - Related articles - All 3 versions

[CITATION] VA Bayesian Look at New Open EconomyV

T Lubik… - Macroeconomics NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2005
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[PDF] Comment on" How Structural Are Structural Parameters?"

[PDF] from nber.org
F Schorfheide - 2008 - nber.org
Following the work of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and
Wouters(2003), many central banks are building and esti mating dynamic stochastic general
equilibrium(DSGE) models and are using them for monetary policy analysis. These ...
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[CITATION] Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to

TA Lubik… - 2004
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Labor Supply Shifts and Economic Fluctuations

[PDF] from upenn.edu
Y Chang… - 2001 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We investigate the role of labor-supply shifts in economic fluctuations. A new VAR
identification scheme for labor supply shocks is proposed. Our method provides an
alternative identification scheme, which does not rely on" zero-restrictions". According to ...
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[PDF] Loss Function Estimation of Forecasting Models: A Bayesian Perspective

[PDF] from upenn.edu
F Schorfheide - … Statistical Association, Proceedings of the Section …, 1999 - econ.upenn.edu
(1998), Findlay (1983), Findlay et al. (1998), Weiss and Andersen (1984), Weiss (1991). The
existing literature demonstrates that the benefits of a loss function estimation approach hinge
on the potential misspecification of the forecasting model, in partic- ular the expectation of ...
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[PDF] An Estimated Search-Based Monetary DSGE Model with Liquid Capital

[PDF] from upenn.edu
SB Aruoba… - 2010 - ssc.upenn.edu
In this note we extend the search-based monetary DSGE model studied in Aruoba and
Schorfheide (2010) and introduce liquid capital claims. More specifically, buyers in the
decentralized market can use a fraction of their capital stock holdings in addition to money ...
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[CITATION] Forming Priors for DSGE Models

M Negro… - 2006 - Working Papers
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[PDF] Bayesian inference for econometric models using empirical likelihood functions

[PDF] from repec.org
H MOON… - Extended Abstract. Econometric Society, 2004 - repec.org
Estimators based on moment conditions of the form IE [g (Xi, θ)], where θ is a finite-
dimensional parameter vector of interest, are a popular tool in applied econometrics. Unlike
likelihoodbased estimators, moment-based estimators do not require the researcher to ...
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[CITATION] V Testing for Indeterminancy: an Applica% tion to US Monetary PolicyV,* C< G@: 8D

L Thomas… - 2004 - EDEC
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[PDF] A DSGE-VAR for the Euro Area

[PDF] from repec.org
M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - 2003 - repec.org
Abstract This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and
Wouters (2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the
approach in Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area ...
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A DSGE-VAR for the Euro Area

MD Negro… - 2004 Meeting Papers, 2004 - econpapers.repec.org
This paper uses a modified version of the DSGE model estimated in Smets and Wouters
(2003) to generate a prior distribution for a vector autoregression, following the approach in
Del Negro and Schorfheide (2003). This DSGE-VAR is fitted to Euro area data on GDP, ...
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[PDF] Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy Model under Inflation Targeting

[PDF] from newyorkfed.org
M Del Negro… - data.newyorkfed.org
Abstract The paper estimates a small open economy DSGE model, specified along the lines
of Galı and Monacelli (REStud 2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (JME 2007), on Chilean
data for the full inflation targeting period (1999-2007). We study the specification of the ...
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[PDF] A New Class of Nonlinear Time Series Models for the Evaluation of DSGE Models

[PDF] from umd.edu
B Aruoba, L Bocola… - manuscript, Department of …, 2011 - econweb.umd.edu
Abstract A new class of nonlinear time series models that can be used to evaluate the fit of
DSGE models that have been solved with second-order perturbation methods is developed.
We use such a nonlinear model to construct a predictive check for a simple New ...
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[PDF] Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Lucas Critique

[PDF] from canon-igs.org
Y Chang, SB Kim… - … manuscript, University of …, 2010 - canon-igs.org
Abstract Representative agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are
widely used to analyze the effects of economic policy changes. A key assumption in policy
experiments is that taste and technology parameters as well as structural shocks are ...
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[PDF] Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours

[PDF] from upenn.edu
JVR Rull, F Schorfheide… - … of Minnesota and …, 2007 - sas.upenn.edu
Abstract Different empirical methodologies have coexisted in macroeconomics over the past
decades: calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models,
econometrically estimated DSGE models, and structural vector autoregressions. Using ...
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Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

E Granziera, M Lee, H Moon… - CEPR Discussion Paper …, 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector
autoregressions (SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the
endogenous variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - All 4 versions

[PDF] Financial Frictions, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique

[PDF] from 129.2.28.158
Y Chang, SB Kim… - 2009 - 129.2.28.158
Abstract Representative agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are
widely used to analyze the effects of economic policy changes. A key assumption in policy
experiments is that taste and technology parameters as well as structural shocks are ...
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[CITATION] Estimating Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies: A Structural Approach

F Schorfheide… - Computing in Economics and …, 2003 - econpapers.repec.org
... Please update your bookmarks. Estimating Monetary Policy Rules in Small Open Economies:
A Structural Approach. Frank Schorfheide () and Thomas A. Lubik. No 225, Computing in
Economics and Finance 2003 from Society for Computational Economics. ...
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Bayesian Inference for Econometric Models using Empirical Likelihood Functions

F Schorfheide… - Econometric Society 2004 North …, 2004 - ideas.repec.org
Estimators based on moment conditions of the form E [g (X, t)], where t is a finite-dimensional
parameter vector of interest, are a popular tool in applied econometrics. Unlike likelihood-
based estimators, moment-based estimators do not require the researcher to specify the ...
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DP5207 Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models

S An… - 2005 - cepr.org
This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate
and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the
estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian ...
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Index to Volume 25 (2007)

[PDF] from amstat.org
MC Beaulieu, JM Dufour, L Khalaf… - Journal of Business & …, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
Amengual, Dante, and Watson, Mark W., “Consistent Estima- tion of the Number of Dynamic
Factors in a Large N and T Panel,” 91 Amisano, Gianni, and Giacomini, Raffaella, “Comparing
Den- sity Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,” 177 Anderson, Heather M., and ...
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Estimating macroeconomic models: a likelihood approach. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Working Paper

J Fernández-villaverde, JF Rubio-ramírez… - 2004 - citeseer.ist.psu.edu
Abstract: for comments. Jonas Fisher provided us with his investment deflator. Mark Fisher's
help with coding was priceless. Beyond the usual disclaimer, we must note that any views
expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal ...
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[PDF] Testing for Indeterminacy: Comments on a Paper by

[PDF] from eaer.org
T Lubik… - mail.eaer.org
Abstract Lubik and Schorfheide construct a test to determine whether a given data set was
generated by an economic model for which the parameters were drawn from a determinate
or an indeterminate region of the parameter space. They apply their test to the US ...
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[PDF] On-line Appendix for Sticky Prices Versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-offs

[PDF] from psu.edu
SB Aruoba… - 2010 - Citeseer
This Appendix provides detailed derivations of the equilibrium conditions presented in the
main text. Moreover, we are presenting further empirical results that are not reported in the
published paper. Additional details can found in Aruoba and Schorfheide (2009).
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[CITATION] Quantile Regression Models for Global Temperature Change

RW Koenker, F Schorfheide… - 1993 - University of Illinois at Urbana- …
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DP6119 Forming Priors for DSGE Models (and How It Affects the Assessment of Nominal Rigidities)

M Del Negro… - 2007 - cepr.org
In Bayesian analysis of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) prior distributions for
some of the taste-and-technology parameters can be obtained from microeconometric or pre-
sample evidence, but it is difficult to elicit priors for the parameters that govern the law of ...
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[CITATION] Nber Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20: A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics

T Lubik… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
We develop a small-scale, two-country model and estimate it based on US and Euro area
data to Study the magnitude of nominal rigidities; the transmission of monetary policy
shocks, as well as demand and supply shocks; and the determinants of exchange rate ...
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Forecasting Economic Time Series

Full text - MIT Libraries
F Schorfheide - Econometric Theory, 2000 - Cambridge Univ Press
Abstract The prediction of future events and developments is an exciting and perhaps
mysterious task, often associated with the aura of prophets and seers instead of probabilistic
models and computer screens. The reality of macroeconomic forecasting, however, is ...
Related articles - BL Direct - All 8 versions

DP5605 Boosting Your Instruments: Estimation with Overidentifying Inequality Moment Conditions

HR Moon… - 2006 - cepr.org
This paper derives limit distributions of empirical likelihood estimators for models in which
inequality moment conditions provide overidentifying information. We show that the use of
this information leads to a reduction of the asymptotic mean-squared estimation error and ...
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Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective

[PDF] from iadb.org
SB Aruoba, FX Diebold, J Nalewaik, F Schorfheide… - 2011 - nber.org
Two often-divergent US GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side
version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDPI. We propose and
explore a" forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to ...
Related articles - All 21 versions

http://www. econ. duke. edu/NASM/.

Full text - MIT Libraries
Y Ait-Sahalia, F Econometrics, R Bansal… - …, 2007 - Wiley Online Library
THE 2007 FAR EASTERN MEETING of the Econometric Society will be held in Taipei,
Taiwan, from July 11 to July 13, 2007. The meeting will be organized by the Institute of
Economics, Academia Sinica. The program will consist of plenary, invited, and contributed ...

DP5232 Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model

Y Chang, T Doh… - 2005 - cepr.org
The time series fit of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models often suffers
from restrictions on the long-run dynamics that are at odds with the data. Relaxing these
restrictions can close the gap between DSGE models and vector autoregressions. This ...
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[PDF] Notes for Macro Reading Group Presentation October 2004

[PDF] from nyu.edu
F Schorfheide - 2004 - pages.stern.nyu.edu
• Growing Literature on estimation of small-and large scale DSGE models: Altig, Christiano,
Eichenbaum and Linde (2002), Christiano, Eichenbaum, Evans (2004), Christiano, Motto,
Rostagno (2003), Onatski and Williams (2003), Schorfheide (2000), Smets and Wouters ( ...
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[PDF] DSGE Model-Based Forecasting

[PDF] from frb.org
M Del Negro… - 2012 - ny.frb.org
Abstract Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern
macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over
the business cycle and to perform policy analysis. We explain how to use DSGE models ...
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[CITATION] The econometrics of macroeconomics, finance, and the interface

Full text - MIT Libraries
FX Diebold, RF Engle, C Favero… - Journal of …, 2008 - ideas.repec.org
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to
view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are
not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Cached - Library Search - All 5 versions

[PDF] Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed Frequency VAR

[PDF] from upenn.edu
F Schorfheide… - 2011 - porter.ssc.upenn.edu
Abstract This paper develops a vector autoregression (VAR) for macroeconomic time series
which are observed at mixed frequencies–quarterly and monthly. The mixedfrequency VAR
is cast in state-space form and estimated with Bayesian methods under a Minnesota-style ...
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DP7474 Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours

C Fuentes-Albero, M Kryshko, JV Ríos-Rull… - 2009 - cepr.org
In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to
assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating
fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how ...
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[PDF] Prior Choice and DSGE Model Comparisons

[PDF] from snb.ch
M Del Negro… - snb.ch
Abstract It is difficult to form beliefs about the parameters that govern the law of motion of the
exogenous processes in DSGE models. We provide a simple way of translating beliefs for
the moments of the endogenous variable into a prior for these parameters. We use our ...
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DP3599 Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism

Y Chang, JF Gomes… - 2002 - cepr.org
This Paper suggests that skill accumulation through past work experience, or 'learning-by-
doing'(LBD), can provide an important propagation mechanism in a dynamic stochastic
general equilibrium model, as the current labour supply affects future productivity. Our ...
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DP8432 Inference for VARs Identified with Sign Restrictions

E Granziera, M Lee, HR Moon… - 2011 - cepr.org
There is a fast growing literature that partially identifies structural vector autoregressions
(SVARs) by imposing sign restrictions on the responses of a subset of the endogenous
variables to a particular structural shock (sign-restricted SVARs). To date, the methods that ...
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DP4848 On the Fit and Forecasting Performance of New Keynesian Models

M Del Negro, F Schorfheide, F Smets… - 2005 - cepr.org
The Paper provides new tools for the evaluation of DSGE models, and applies it to a large-
scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and
wage stickiness and capital accumulation. Specifically, we approximate the DSGE model ...
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DP8039 Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique

Y Chang… - 2010 - cepr.org
This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of``structural''
parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal policy
regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and ...
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