C Burnside… - … Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. …, 1997 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal,
monetary, and trade policies. Aid appears not to affect policies systematically either for good
or for ill. Any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donorsë ...
Existing Real Business Cycle (RBC) models assume that the key impulses to business
cycles are stochastic technology shocks. RBC analysts typically measure these technology
shocks by the Solow residual. This paper assesses the sensitivity of inference based on ...
This paper studies the implications of procyclical capital utilization rates for inference
regarding cyclical movements in labor productivity and the degree of returns to scale. To
study cyclical movements in capital utilization we use two measures of capital services: ...
C Burnside… - 1994 - nber.org
This paper analyzes the role of variable capital utilization rates in propagating shocks over
the business cycle. To this end we formulate and estimate an equilibrium business cycle
model in which cyclical capital utilization rates are viewed as a form of factor hoarding. We ...
This paper argues that the recent Southeast Asian currency crisis was caused by large
prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems.
We articulate this view using a simple dynamic general equilibrium model whose key ...
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - European Economic Review, 2001 - Elsevier
Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share at least three elements. First,
banks have a currency mismatch between their assets and liabilities. Second, banks do not
completely hedge the associated exchange rate risk. Third, there are implicit government ...
C Burnside - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996 - Elsevier
A number of recent papers have used simple linear regressions in an attempt to identify
market structure, the extent of returns to scale, and possible external effects in US
manufacturing industries. The results obtained from these regressions have important ...
This paper investigates the response of hours worked and real wages to fiscal policy shocks
in the US during the post World War II era. We identify these shocks with exogenous
changes in military purchases and argue that they lead to a persistent increase in ...
Currencies that are at a forward premium tend to depreciate. This' forward-premium
puzzle'represents an egregious deviation from uncovered interest parity. We document the
properties of returns to currency speculation strategies that exploit this anomaly. We show ...
C Burnside… - 1998 - books.google.com
Foreign aid has a strong positive effect on growth in low-income countries with good
policies; it has no measurable effect in countries with severely distorted policy regimes: that
was the main finding of our first paper [Burnside and Dollar (1997)]. While that result was ...
AC Burnside,
MS Eichenbaum… - European Economic Review, 1996 - Elsevier
This paper presents capital utilization corrected measures of technology shocks for
aggregate and disaggregated (two-digit Standard Industrial Classification code) industries.
We correct for variations in capital utilization by employing industrial electrical use as a ...
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - Review of Financial …, 2011 - Soc Financial Studies
Abstract We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which
an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This
strategy generates payoffs that are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk ...
C Burnside… - The American Economic Review, 2004 - JSTOR
In Burside and Dollar (2000) we used standard regression techniques from the growth
literature to measure the effect of foreign aid on growth. The main finding in our paper was
that the effect of foreign aid on growth depended on the macroeconomic policies of ...
This paper investigates the response of real wages and hours worked to an exogenous
shock in fiscal policy. We identify this shock with the dynamic response of government
purchases and tax rates to an exogenous increase in military purchases. The fiscal shocks ...
C Burnside… - 1994 - nber.org
This paper assesses the small sample properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
based Wald statistics. The analysis is conducted assuming that the data generating process
corresponds to (i) a simple vector white noise process and (ii) an equilibrium business ...
AC Burnside - 1998 - dukespace.lib.duke.edu
There is nothing misleading in the fact that different filtering techniques lead to different facts
about macroeconomic time series. The fact that economists use a large number of filters to
extract the'cyclical'and'trend'components of time series simply means that these concepts ...
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - Journal of Economic Theory, 2004 - Elsevier
We develop a model in which government guarantees to banks' foreign creditors are a root
cause of self-fulfilling twin banking-currency crises. Absent guarantees, such crises are not
possible. In the presence of guarantees banks borrow foreign currency, lend domestic ...
C Burnside - Journal of Economic Dynamics and control, 1998 - Elsevier
This paper provides a closed-form solution for the price-dividend ratio in a standard asset
pricing model when the growth rate of the endowment is a first-order Gaussian
autoregression. It determines the conditions under which this solution is bounded. The ...
C Burnside - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1994 - JSTOR
In this article, tests of the implications of consumption-based asset-pricing models are
developed. Four of these tests are based on variance bounds for intertemporal marginal
rates of substitution introduced by Hansen and Jagannathan. The tests provide one ...
C Burnside… - Finance and Development, 1997 - iese.ac.mz
David Dollar, a US national, is a Research Manager in the World Bank's Development
Research Group. poor policies for decades (as Zambia did until its recent reforms), but there
are just as many countries that have received large amounts of aid and implemented ...
This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals
and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will
occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes twin ...
High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate relative to low-interest-rate currencies. We
argue that adverse-selection problems between participants in foreign exchange markets
can account for this' forward premium puzzle.'The key feature of our model is that the ...
C Burnside - 2005 - books.google.com
Fiscal sustainability analysis is the use of a simple set of tools to analyze a government's
budget and its debt position, and leads to conclusions-given the government's debt level-
about the appropriateness of fiscal policy. Many economists are familiar with fiscal ...
C Burnside,
MS Eichenbaum, S Rebelo… - 1999 - www-wds.worldbank.org
Abstract This paper argues that the recent Asian currency crisis was caused by large
prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to fail0 ing banking systems.
We articulate this view using a simple dynamic gen0 eral equilibrium model whose key ...
The classical view of currency crises is that they arise because governments print money to
finance ongoing or prospective deficits. This view, embedded in so-called first-generation
models and their modern variants, is especially appealing for explaining twin banking- ...
C Burnside - 2007 - nber.org
Lustig and Verdelhan (2007) argue that the excess returns to borrowing US dollars and
lending in foreign currency" compensate US investors for taking on more US consumption
growth risk," yet the stochastic discount factor corresponding to their benchmark model is ...
C Burnside - World Bank, mimeo, 2004 - Citeseer
The term fiscal sustainability has many definitions, though it almost always refers to the fiscal
policies of a government or the public sector. One concept of sustainability relates to
solvency, the ability of the government to service its debt obligations in perpetuity without ...
[CITATION] Real Business Cycle models: Linear approximation and GMM estimation
C Burnside - manuscript, The World Bank, May, 1999
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006 - Elsevier
We address three questions:(i) Can classical models be reconciled with the fact that many
crises are marked by high rates of depreciation and small increases in seignorage
revenue?(ii) What are the implications of different financing methods for post-crisis rates of ...
This paper addresses two questions:(i) how do governments actually pay for the fiscal costs
associated with currency crises; and (ii) what are the implications of different financing
methods for post-crisis rates of inflation and depreciation? We study these questions using ...
This paper analyzes the ability of a general equilibrium efficiency wage model to account for
the estimated response of hours worked and of real wages to a fiscal policy shock. Our key
finding is that the model cannot do so unless we make the counterfactual assumption that ...
Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. In either case it is
difficult to find observable fundamentals that are correlated with price movements. We
develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous ...
[CITATION] Aid, Growth, the Incentive Regime, and Poverty Reduction
C Burnside… - The World Bank: Structure and Policies, 2000 - Cambridge Univ Pr
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - The New Palgrave: A …, 2007 - kellogg.northwestern.edu
There have been many currency crises during the post-war era (see Kaminsky and Reinhart,
1999). A currency crisis is an episode in which the exchange rate depreciates substantially
during a short period of time. There is an extensive literature on the causes and ...
AC Burnside - 2007 - nber.org
The risk factors in many consumption-based asset pricing models display statistically weak
correlation with the returns being priced. Some GMM-based procedures used to test these
models have very low power to reject proposed stochastic discount factors (SDFs) when ...
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - Journal of the European …, 2008 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract Market participants routinely take advantage of the failure of uncovered interest rate
parity to speculate in currency markets. Perhaps the most widely used currency speculation
strategy is the carry trade. In this article we take the perspective of an individual currency ...
[CITATION] Private Saving in Mexico
C Burnside - World Bank, Washington, DC, 1998
[CITATION] _, _ (1996)," Sectoral Solow Residuals,"
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - European Economic Review
[CITATION] Notes on the linearization and GMM estimation of real business cycle models
AC Burnside - manuscript, The World Bank, 1997
C Burnside, B Han… - The Review of …, 2011 - restud.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract We offer an explanation for the forward premium puzzle in foreign exchange
markets based upon investor overconfidence. In the model, overconfident individuals
overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater overshooting in ...
C Burnside - NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2008 - duke.edu
Abstract The failure of uncovered interest parity and the profitability of the carry trade in
currencies are intimately related, and represent a fundamental puzzle in international
finance. In this comment, I argue that Brunnermeier, Nagel and Pedersen have un $ ...
C Burnside… - 2009 - nber.org
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007.
There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and
global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of ...
C Burnside… - Contributions in Macroeconomics, 2005 - degruyter.com
In this paper we discuss fiscal and monetary policy issues facing heavily-indebted poor
countries (HIPCs) who receive debt reduction via the enhanced HIPC initiative. This debt
relief program is distinguished from previous ones by its conditionality: freed resources ...
C Burnside - … Sustainability in Theory and Practice: A …, 2005 - siteresources.worldbank.org
To define fiscal sustainability analysis it is useful to seek guidance from a dictionary.
WebsterGs, for example, suggests using the adjective sustainable to describe something
that can be kept up, prolonged, borne, etc. Or, it might be used to describe a method of ...
C Burnside - Journal of International Economics, 2004 - Elsevier
A contingent liability is a future spending commitment that is realized with some probability.
International organizations emphasize the dangers of contingent liabilities when providing
advice. Why? One answer is obvious—if significant contingent liabilities are realized they ...
C Burnside,
M Eichenbaum… - The Asian financial crisis: …, 1999 - books.google.com
Chapter 3 What Caused the Recent Asian Currency Crises? Craig Burnside, Martin
Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo The World Bank; Northwestern University, NBER and Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago; Northwestern University and NBER Abstract: This paper ...
[CITATION] Factor Hoarding and the Business Cycel
C Burnside… - American Economic Review, 1996
C Burnside - Fiscal Sustainability in Theory & Practice, 2005 - siteresources.worldbank.org
In the previous chapter we introduced the concept of the government budget constraint. We
derived two versions of the government budget constraint: the flow version and the lifetime
version. In this chapter we will use both versions of the constraint as tools for fiscal ...
C Burnside… - The New Palgrave Dictionary of …, 1992 - rotman.utoronto.ca
1992 equity premium puzzle equity premium puzzle. The term 'equity premium'refers to the
difference between the real rate of return on equity and the real rate of return on a riskless
asset. The phrase 'equity premium puzzle'refers to the apparent inability of the standard ...
[CITATION] Some facts About the HP Filter
C Burnside - mimeographed, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA, 2000
[CITATION] The comovement of asset returns with time non-separable preferences
AC Burnside - Department of Economics Queens University, 1990
We examine the empirical properties of the payoffs to two popular currency speculation
strategies: the carry trade and momentum. We review three possible explanations for the
apparent profitability of these strategies. The first is that speculators are being ...
[CITATION] Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Shocks", NBER Working Papers, 7459
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - 1999
Page 1. Booms and Busts: Understanding Housing Market Dynamics Craig Burnside, Martin
Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo June 2010 BER () Epidemic June 2010 1 / 90 Page 2. Booms
and busts There are many episodes in which real estate prices rise dramatically. ...
C Burnside - 2000 - duke.edu
Abstract In this paper I examine a real business cycle (RBC) model in which firms can vary
the utilization rate of capital by operating different numbers of shifts at plants. The firms,
incentive to do this follows from the fact that capital is allocated to plants prior to the ...
[CITATION] Aid, Policies and Growth (Washington DC: The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 1777)
C Burnside… - 1997
C Burnside, K Schmidt-Hebbel… - Economía …, 1999 - economiamexicana.cide.edu
Abstract: How does Mexico's saving performance compare to the world's? Is Mexico
'different'? Ard what drives Mexico's saving behavior since the 1980s? This paper addresses
these questions bringing together empirical evidence from Mexico with that from a large ...
[CITATION] forthcoming,“Aid, Policies, and Growth,”
C Burnside… - American Economic Review
C Burnside - 2010 - nber.org
When linear asset pricing models are estimated using excess return data, a normalization of
the model must be selected. Several normalizations are equivalent when the model is
correctly specified, but the identification conditions differ across normalizations. In practice ...
[CITATION] Sergio Rebelo," Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
C Burnside… - 1998 - Working Paper-98-5, September
[CITATION] Aid, policies, and growth: Revisiting the evidence
D Dollar… - Policy Research Working Paper Series, 2004
[CITATION] Small Sample Properties of 2-Step Method of Moments Estimators,'
C Burnside - Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, 1991
[CITATION] _, _ (1995)" Capital utilization and returns to scale
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - NBER Macroeconomics Annual
C Burnside… - Chicago Federal Reserve Board …, 1996 - chicagofed.org
Abstract Tradable permit markets have become an increasingly popular tool to address
environmental policy problems. This paper examines the performance of one particular
emissions trading market, the Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) that ...
[CITATION] Sergio Rebelo, 1998,“Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis,”
C Burnside… - NBER Working Paper
[CITATION] Sergio Rebelo (2004),“Government Guarantees and Self-fulfilling Speculative Attacks,”
C Burnside… - Journal of Economic Theory
[CITATION] ” Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes,''National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 7143, May
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - 1999
[CITATION] On the fundamentals of self fulfilling currency attacks: The role of government guarantees to foreign bank creditors
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - 2000 - Northwestern University, working …
[CITATION] Fiscal policy, business cycles, and growth in Mexico
C Burnside - World Bank, 2000
[CITATION] Hedging and Financial Fragility in fixed Exchange Rate Regimes
B Craig, M Eichenbaum… - NBER Working Paper, 1999
[CITATION] The returns to currency speculation. 2006
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum, I Kleshchelski… - NBER Working paper
[CITATION] Hiccups for HIPCs? Implications of Debt Relief for Government Budgets and Monetary Policy
C Burnside… - Contributions to Macroeoconomics, 2005
[CITATION] Aid, the Incentive Regime, and Poverty Reduction (Washington, DC: The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 1937)
C Burnside… - 1998
[CITATION] Good Policies are Needed to Make Aid Effective
C Burnside… - Transition, 1997
[CITATION] Assessing the E¤ ects of Fiscal Shocks
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - NBER working paper, 2000
[CITATION] iThe returns to currency speculation, jNational Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12489
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum, I Kleshchelski… - 2006
[CITATION] Aid, policies and growth, The World Bank, Policy Research Department
C Burnside… - 1997 - working paper
[CITATION] Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Prices
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - 2011 - mimeo Northwestern
C Burnside… - … in Theory and Practice: A Handbook, …, 2005 - duke.edu
This chapter investigates one aspect of the sustainability of fiscal policy in Mexico. It focuses
on the response of fiscal policy to the business cycle, and, through the lens of simple
Keynesian models, examines the role fiscal policy plays in determining output. 1 We look ...
[CITATION] The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets
B Craig,
E Martin… - 2007 - National Bureau of Economic …
[CITATION] Solving, estimating and testing nonlinear asset pricing models: a unified approach
AC Burnside - 1991
C Burnside… - … in Theory and Practice: A Handbook, …, 2004 - duke.edu
This chapter introduces the concept of the cyclically-adjusted budget surplus. Historically,
cyclically-adjusted budget surplus measures have played a role in policy analysis reflecting
economists' understanding that cyclical movements in output systematically affect the ...
[CITATION] Sergio Rebelo, 1999
C Burnside… - Hedging and Financial
[CITATION] Aid, Policies, and Growth: Revisiting the Evidence-World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3251
C Burnside… - Washington, DC, 2004
[CITATION] On the Effects of Aid on Growth: A Response to Criticisms and Some Thoughts on Methodology
C Burnside… - Unpublished manuscript, University of Virginia, Octover, 2003
[CITATION] Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Turkey: 1994—2002
C Burnside - 2002 - mimeo, World Bank
[CITATION] On the Fundamentals of Self Fulfilling Currency Crises,"
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - manuscript, Northwestern University, 2000
[CITATION] Eichenbaum and Rebelo, Sergio 2001 “On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises” NEBR
C Burnside - Working Paper 8277
[CITATION] nAid
C Burnside… - Policies and Growth, o American Economic Review, 2000
[CITATION] Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis. The World Bank, Northwestern University
C Burnside - 1998 - NBER and Federal Rserve of …
[CITATION] Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets
C Burnside,
MS Eichenbaum, S Rebelo… - 2010 - Centre for Economic Policy …
[CITATION] Carry Trade: the Gains from Diversification
S Rebelo, M Eichenbaum… - Journal of the European Economic …, 2008
[CITATION] Some Tools for Fiscal Sustainability
C Burnside - Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice A …, 2005
C Burnside - Econometric Theory, 1993 - Cambridge Univ Press
This paper considers the properties of estimators based on numerical solutions to a class of
economic models. In particular, the numerical methods discussed are those applied in the
solution of linear integral equations, specifically Fredholm equations of the second kind. ...
[CITATION] Forthcoming." On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises."
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - Managing Currency Crises
[CITATION] et D. DOLLAR, 1997
C BUrnsiDe - Aid, Policies and Growth, 1777
[CITATION] Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?(Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum, I Kleshchelski… - 2011
[CITATION] The Returns to Currency Speculation
B Craig, M Eichenbaum, I Kleshchelski… - 2006 - mimeo, August 2006, on Martin …
[CITATION] 0On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises, 1 in Michael P. Dooley and Jeffrey A. Frankel, eds. Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
C Burnside, M Eichenbaum… - 2003 - Chicago: University of Chicago …
[CITATION] lThe cross% section of foreign currency risk premia and consumption growth risk: A commentm
C Burnside - 2009 - mimeo
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