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Emerging market business cycles: The cycle is the trend

[PDF] from lse.ac.uk
M Aguiar… - 2004 - nber.org
Business Cycles in emerging markets are characterized by strongly counter-cyclical current
accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility and dramatic sudden stops' in
capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies and ...
Cited by 513 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 60 versions

Measuring trends in leisure: The allocation of time over five decades

[PDF] from oxfordjournals.org
M Aguiar… - 2006 - nber.org
In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation
of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable
number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. ...
Cited by 379 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 54 versions

Consumption vs. expenditure

[PDF] from wesleyan.edu
M Aguiar… - 2004 - nber.org
Standard tests of the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) using data on nondurables
typically equate expenditures with consumption. However, as noted by Becker (1965),
consumption is the output of a home production'function that uses both expenditure and ...
Cited by 352 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 52 versions

Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account

[PDF] from mecon.gov.ar
M Aguiar… - 2004 - nber.org
World capital markets have experienced large scale sovereign defaults on a number of
occasions, the most recent being Argentina's default in 2002. In this paper we develop a
quantitative model of debt and default in a small open economy. We use this model to ...
Cited by 224 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 41 versions

Lifecycle prices and production

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
M Aguiar… - 2005 - nber.org
Using scanner data and time diaries, we document how households substitute time for
money through shopping and home production. We find evidence that there is substantial
heterogeneity in prices paid across households for identical consumption goods in the ...
Cited by 153 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 30 versions

Fire-sale foreign direct investment and liquidity crises

[PDF] from markaguiar.com
Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar… - Review of Economics and Statistics, 2005 - MIT Press
In placing capital market imperfections at the center of emerging market crises, the
theoretical literature has associated a liquidity crisis with low foreign investment and the exit
of investors from the crisis economy. However, a liquidity crisis is equally consistent with ...
Cited by 107 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Investment, devaluation, and foreign currency exposure: The case of Mexico

[PDF] from markaguiar.com
Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar - Journal of Development Economics, 2005 - Elsevier
This paper studies firm-level investment in the wake of the Mexican peso crisis of 1994.
While exporters outperform nonexporters in terms of profits and sales after the devaluation,
their investment is constrained by weak balance sheets. Specifically, we find that firms ...
Cited by 100 - Related articles - All 11 versions

Deconstructing lifecycle expenditure

[PDF] from 141.213.232.243
M Aguiar… - 2008 - nber.org
In this paper we revisit two well-known facts regarding lifecycle expenditures. The first is the
familiar" hump" shaped lifecycle profile of nondurable expenditures. We document that the
behavior of total nondurables masks surprising heterogeneity in the lifecycle profile of ...
Cited by 54 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 59 versions

Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation

[HTML] from oxfordjournals.org
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M Aguiar… - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011 - qje.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract We propose a tractable variant of the open economy neoclassical growth model
that emphasizes political economy and contracting frictions. The political economy frictions
involve a preference for immediate spending, while the contracting friction is a lack of ...
Cited by 41 - Related articles - Library Search - All 55 versions

Investment cycles and sovereign debt overhang

[PDF] from acrobatplanet.com
Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar, M Amador… - Review of Economic …, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a
small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk-
averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy ...
Cited by 29 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 40 versions

[CITATION] Devaluation, Foreign Currency Exposure and Investment: The Case of Mexico

M Aguiar - University of Chicago. Documento mimeografiado, 2002
Cited by 24 - Related articles

Has Consumption Inequality Mirrored Income Inequality?

[PDF] from vanderbilt.edu
MA Aguiar… - 2011 - nber.org
Page 1. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES HAS CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY
MIRRORED INCOME INEQUALITY? Mark A. Aguiar Mark Bils Working Paper 16807
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16807 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ...
Cited by 24 - Related articles - Library Search - All 15 versions

[PDF] Fire-sale FDI and liquidity crises

[PDF] from wesleyan.edu
M Aguiar… - Unpublished manuscript, University of …, 2002 - wesleyan.edu
Abstract In placing capital market imperfections at the center of emerging market crises, the
theoretical literature has associated a liquidity crisis with low foreign investment and the exit
of investors from the crisis economy. However, a liquidity crisis is equally consistent with ...
Cited by 15 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 16 versions

[PDF] The role of interest rates and productivity shocks in emerging market fluctuations

[PDF] from comisiondistorsionesdeprecios.cl
M Aguiar, G Gopinath - … Bank of Chile, 2007 - comisiondistorsionesdeprecios.cl
Abstract In this paper we use a quantitative model to explore the potential frictions that
distinguish emerging market business cycles from developed small open economies.
Following Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) we allow total factor productivity (TFP) to have a ...
Cited by 16 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 20 versions

The increase in leisure inequality

[PDF] from bcrp.gob.pe
M Aguiar… - 2008 - nber.org
This paper examines the changing allocation of time within the United States that has
occurred between 1965 and 2003-2005. We find that the time individuals have allocated to
leisure has increased in the US for both men and women during this period, with almost ...
Cited by 12 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 12 versions

[CITATION] Life Cycle Prices and Consumption

M Aguiar… - 2005 - Mimeo, University of Chicago
Cited by 11 - Related articles

[PDF] Measuring Leisure: Evidence from Five Decades of Time Use Surveys

[PDF] from nber.org
M Aguiar… - unpublished paper, University of Chicago, 2005 - nber.org
Abstract In this paper, we examine the relationship between labor supplied to the market
sector, labor supplied to the home sector, and leisure. Theoretically, we review how
standard estimates of labor supply elasticities confound both preference parameters as ...
Cited by 9 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 6 versions

Efficient fiscal policy and amplification

[PDF] from mecon.gov.ar
M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2005 - nber.org
We provide a rationale for the observed pro-cyclicality of tax policies in emerging markets
and present a novel mechanism through which tax policy amplifies the business cycle. Our
explanation relies on two features of emerging markets: limited access to financial markets ...
Cited by 9 - Related articles - Library Search - BL Direct - All 10 versions

Time Use During Recessions

[PDF] from chicagobooth.edu
MA Aguiar, E Hurst… - 2011 - nber.org
... NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge,
MA 02138 July 2011 Mark Aguiar thanks Princeton University for summer financial support. Erik
Hurst thanks the John E. Jeuck Faculty Fund at Chicago Booth for financial support. ...
Cited by 13 - Related articles - Library Search - All 9 versions

A Summary of Trends in American Time Allocation: 1965–2005

Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar… - Social indicators research, 2009 - Springer
This article summarizes the findings from Aguiar and Hurst (2007, 2008) with respect to
changes in time allocation—particularly leisure—within the United States during the last four
decades. Included in our measure of leisure is all time people spend watching television, ...
Cited by 9 - Related articles - All 7 versions

[PDF] Measuring trends in leisure: evidence from five decades of time use surveys

[PDF] from chicagobooth.edu
M Aguiar… - 2005 - faculty.chicagobooth.edu
Abstract In this paper, we use five decades of time use surveys to document a set of stylized
facts about the evolution of time spent in market work, time spent in non-market work, and
time spent in leisure for the entire population and specific sub groups of the population. ...
Cited by 7 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 19 versions

Efficient expropriation: sustainable fiscal policy in a small open economy

[PDF] from bostonfed.org
M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2006 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We study a small open economy characterized by two empirically important
frictions-incomplete financial markets and an inability of the government to commit to policy.
We characterize the best sustainable fiscal policy and show that it can amplify and prolong ...
Cited by 6 - Related articles - All 10 versions

[CITATION] The increase in leisure inequality, 1965-2005

M Aguiar… - 2009 - Aei Pr
Cited by 5 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - Library Search

[CITATION] 006.“Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account.”

M Aguiar… - Journal of International Economics
Cited by 5 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries

[CITATION] Defaultable Debt

M Aguiar… - Interest Rates and the Current, 2006
Cited by 6 - Related articles

[CITATION] Emerging Market Business Cycles7 The Cycle

M Aguiar… - The Global Crisis and Capital Flows to Emerging …, 2004
Cited by 5 - Related articles

[CITATION] Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of

M Aguiar… - 2007
Cited by 4 - Related articles

[CITATION] Foreign Currency Debt in Emerging Markets

M Aguiar - unpublished) Chicago: University of Chicago Graduate …, 2000
Cited by 4 - Related articles

[PDF] Emerging Market Fluctuations: The Role of Interest Rate and Productivity Shocks

[PDF] from comisiondistorsionesdeprecios.cl
M Aguiar, G Gopinath - Current …, 2006 - comisiondistorsionesdeprecios.cl
Business cycles in emerging markets are characterized by high levels of volatility in income,
investment, and net exports. Consumption is more volatile than income, and net exports are
highly countercyclical (see Aguiar and Gopinath, 2007). Furthermore, the interest rates ...
Cited by 3 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 10 versions

[CITATION] 2oo7. Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend

Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar… - The Journal of Political Economy
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Paper

M Aguiar… - 2006
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] The Value of Foreign Ownership

M Aguiar, G Gopinath… - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and University of …, 2004
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[CITATION] Devaluation, Foreign Currency Exposure and Investment: Evidence From Mexico

M Aguiar - U. Chicago, 2001
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Re-examining Lifecycle Consumption

M Aguiar… - 2007 - University of Chicago working paper
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Lifecycle Production and Prices

M Aguiar… - NBER Working Paper, 2005
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] June 2004.“Consumption vs

M Aguiar… - Expenditure.” Working Paper
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Devaluation

M Aguiar - Foreign Currency Exposure and Investment: The Case …, 2002
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend” photocopy (Chicago: University of Chicago)

M Aguiar… - 2004
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time over

M Aguiar… - 2006
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[CITATION] Sovereign Debt Cycles

M Aguiar, M Amador… - NBER Working Paper, 2007
Cited by 2 - Related articles

[PDF] Informed Speculation and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
M Aguiar - … , Graduate School of Business, University of …, 1999 - faculty.haas.berkeley.edu
Abstract This paper explores the classic question regarding the costs and benefits of limiting
exchange rate volatility starting from the premise that asset markets play an important role in
aggregating information. I find that government trading, despite being completely ...
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[CITATION] November 2004.“Consumption, Expenditure and Home Production Over the Life Cycle.”

M Aguiar… - Working Paper
Cited by 2 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries

Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

[PDF] from upf.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006 - Elsevier
Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic
fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in
macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this ...
Cited by 2 - Related articles - All 17 versions

Fiscal policy in debt constrained economies

[PDF] from uchicago.edu
MA Aguiar… - 2011 - nber.org
Page 1. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FISCAL POLICY IN DEBT CONSTRAINED
ECONOMIES Mark A. Aguiar Manuel Amador Working Paper 17457 http://www.nber.
org/papers/w17457 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - All 11 versions

[CITATION] Fire sale and liquidity crises

M Aguiar… - Univ. of Chicago, GSB, Aug, 2002
Cited by 1 - Related articles

[CITATION] Consumption, expenditure and home production over the life cycle

E Hurst… - 2004 - Working paper. University of …
Cited by 1 - Related articles - All 2 versions

[CITATION] Trade Balance and Consumption Dynamics in Emerging Markets

M Aguiar, G Gopinath… - 2003 - Working paper
Cited by 1 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 2 versions

[PDF] The Impact of Migration and Remittances on Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Rural Thailand

[PDF] from harvard.edu
F Garip, F Garip, A Berger, H Cox, HC Kelman… - 1998 - wcfia.harvard.edu
Abstract This paper studies the impact of internal migration and remittance flows on wealth
accumulation and distribution in 22 rural villages in Nang Rong, Thailand. Using data from
943 households, the study constructs indices of household productive and consumer ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 2 versions

Fire-Sale Foreign Direct Investment and Liquidity Crises

Full text - MIT Libraries
A Mark… - Review of Economics and …, 2005 - bachman.hul.harvard.edu
In placing capital market imperfections at the center of emerg-ing market crises, the
theoretical literature has associated a liquidity crisis with low foreign investment and the exit
of investors from the crisis economy. However, a liquidity crisis is equally consistent with ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - Cached - All 3 versions

The New Economics of Time

M Aguiar, E Hurst… - Annual Review of …, 2012 - annualreviews.org
The proliferation of new datasets and the harmonization of older datasets with the new ones
have allowed researchers to make significant progress in our understanding of how
individuals allocate their time away from market work. We highlight how these new data ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 2 versions

[PDF] Fiscal Policy Amplified Cycles

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2005 - emlab.berkeley.edu
Abstract Emerging markets are characterized by high levels of income volatility. These
cycles are accompanied by procyclical fiscal policies: governments tend to increase
spending and reduce taxes during expansions; and the reverse during contractions. What ...
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[PDF] Discussion of Qian, Reinhart, and Rogoff's “On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Ellusive or Illusion”

[PDF] from markaguiar.com
M Aguiar - 2010 - markaguiar.com
Qian et al.(2010)(henceforth QRR) have assembled an impressively rich data set on
external default, banking, and monetary crises. This paper is part of an ambitious project on
placing crises in the proper historical perspective (eg, Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009). It is an ...
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[PDF] Recent Developments in the Economics of Time Use

[PDF] from chicagobooth.edu
M Aguiar, E Hurst… - faculty.chicagobooth.edu
Abstract The proliferation of new datasets and the harmonization of older datasets with the
new ones have allowed researchers to make significant progress in our understanding of
how individuals allocate their time away from market work. We highlight how these new ...
Related articles - View as HTML

[PDF] Efficient Expropriation: Sustainable Fiscal Policy in

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2006 - economics.harvard.edu
Abstract We study a small open economy characterized by two empirically important frictions–
incomplete financial markets and an inability of the government to commit to policy. We
characterize the best sustainable fiscal policy and show that it can amplify and prolong ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 11 versions

[CITATION] The information content of asset prices and emerging market crises

MA Aguiar - 1999 - Massachusetts Institute of …
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Lifestyle prices and production

M Aguiar… - 2005 - ideas.repec.org
Using scanner data and time diaries, we document how households substitute time for
money through shopping and home production. We find evidence that there is substantial
heterogeneity in prices paid across households for identical consumption goods in the ...
Cached - All 4 versions

[CITATION] Scholar and Scapegoat: An Intellectual Biography of Owen Lattimore 1938-1952

M Aguiar - 1988 - Brown University
Library Search

[CITATION] Optimal Fiscal Policy and Amplification in a Small Open Economy

M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2005
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[PDF] Optimal Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies

[PDF] from yale.edu
M Aguiar… - 2011 - econ.yale.edu
Abstract We study optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy (SOE) with sovereign
default risk. The SOE's government uses linear taxation to fund exogenous expenditures
and uses public debt to inter-temporally allocate tax distortions. We characterize a class of ...
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Expropriation Dynamics

[PDF] from psu.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar, M Amador… - The American Economic Review, 2009 - JSTOR
2 The correlation between the inverse measure of expro priation risk and GDP is 0.68, and
the political risk and GDP is 0.71. reversals and the associated economic volatili ty. 3 In
particular, we explore the joint dynamics of sovereign debt, investment, and expropriation ...
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[CITATION] Fiscal Policy Amplified Shocks in Emerging Markets

G Gopinath, M Aguiar… - 2005 Meeting Papers, 2005 - econpapers.repec.org
By Gita Gopinath, Mark Aguiar and Manuel Amador; Fiscal
Policy Amplified Shocks in Emerging Markets.
Cached - All 4 versions

[CITATION] Discussion of Clayne Pope's" Measuring the distribution of material well-being: US trends"

Full text - MIT Libraries
M Aguiar - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009 - econpapers.repec.org
... EconPapers has moved to http://EconPapers.repec.org! Please update your bookmarks.
Discussion of Clayne Pope's "Measuring the distribution of material well-being: US trends". Mark
Aguiar. Journal of Monetary Economics, 2009, vol. 56, issue 1, pages 79-82. ...
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[CITATION] Constraining Inflationary Regimes and the Curse of Success: A model of shadow central banks

M Aguiar - 2001
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[PDF] Decomposing Lifecycle Expenditure

[PDF] from yale.edu
M Aguiar… - 2007 - mailhost.econ.yale.edu
Abstract In this paper we revisit the familiar “hump” shaped lifecycle profile of nondurable
expenditures. We document that the behavior of total nondurables masks surprising
heterogeneity in the lifecycle profile of individual sub-components. We find, for example, ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 16 versions

[PDF] Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy

[PDF] from 209.197.108.139
M Aguiar, M Amador… - 2005 - 209.197.108.139
Abstract We study a small open economy characterized by two main frictions–incomplete
financial markets and an inability of the government to commit to policy. We characterize the
best sustainable fiscal policy and show that it can prolong shocks to output. In particular, ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 3 versions

Home:: Research & Data:: Papers & Publications:: Research Department Working Papers

M Aguiar, M Amador… - bostonfed.org
We study a small open economy characterized by two empirically important frictions—
incomplete financial markets and an inability of the government to commit to policy. We
characterize the best sustainable fiscal policy and show that it can amplify and prolong ...
Cached - All 2 versions

Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades

E Hurst… - NBER Working Paper No. w12082, 2006 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the
allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively
stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. ...
Related articles

[PDF] Consumption, Expenditure, and Home Production over the Lifecycle

[PDF] from repec.org
M Aguiar… - 2005 Meeting Papers, 2005 - repec.org
Abstract We show that behind the well-known hump-shaped lifecycle profile of expenditure
lies a pronounced hump in the prices paid for identical goods over the lifecycle. We combine
this fact with detailed time use data on shopping and home production to estimate a model ...
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