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[CITATION] International economics: theory and policy

PR Krugman… - 2009 - Addison-Wesley
Cited by 3341 - Related articles - All 10 versions

[PDF] The six major puzzles in international macroeconomics: is there a common cause?

[PDF] from nber.org
M Obstfeld… - 2001 - nber.org
International macroeconomics is a field replete with truly perplexing puzzles, and we
generally have five to ten (or more) alternative answers to each of them. These answers are
typically very clever but far from thoroughly convincing, and so the puzzles remain. Why ...
Cited by 1881 - Related articles - View as HTML - BL Direct - All 58 versions

Exchange rate dynamics redux

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Obstfeld… - 1996 - nber.org
Until now, thinking on open economy macroeconomics has been largely schizophrenic.
When it comes to analyzing exchange rate dynamics, an empirically-minded economist
abandons modern current account models which, while theoretically coherent, fail to ...
Cited by 1763 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 31 versions

The logic of currency crises

[PDF] from tu.ac.th
M Obstfeld - 1994 - nber.org
Once one recognizes that governments borrow international reserves and exercise other
policy options to defend fixed exchange rates during currency crises, the question arises:
What factors determine a government's decision to abandon a currency peg or hang on? ...
Cited by 1409 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 26 versions

Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features

[PDF] from ucsc.edu
M Obstfeld - European economic review, 1996 - Elsevier
The discomfort a government suffers from speculation against its currency determines the
strategic incentives of speculators and the scope for multiple currency-market equilibria.
After describing an illustrative model in which high unemployment may cause an ...
Cited by 1290 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 30 versions

The mirage of fixed exchange rates

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Obstfeld… - 1995 - nber.org
This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world
of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country
monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against ...
Cited by 1092 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 24 versions

Rational and self-fulfilling balance-of-payments crises

[PDF] from kailchan.ca
M Obstfeld - 1986 - nber.org
The recent balance-of-payments literature shows that-speculative attacks on a pegged
exchange rate must sometimes-occur if the path of the rate is riot to offer abnormal profit
opportunities. Such attacks are fully rational, as they reflect the market's response to a ...
Cited by 1062 - Related articles - All 19 versions

Risk-taking, global diversification, and growth

[PDF] from sfu.ca
M Obstfeld - 1995 - nber.org
This paper develops a dynamic continuous-time model in which international risk sharing
can yield substantial welfare gains through its positive effect on expected consumption
growth. The mechanism linking global diversification to growth is an attendant world ...
Cited by 1034 - Related articles - All 22 versions

New directions for stochastic open economy models

[PDF] from 128.48.120.222
M Obstfeld… - Journal of international economics, 2000 - Elsevier
The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based
on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty
allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and ...
Cited by 739 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 41 versions

The global capital market: benefactor or menace?

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 1998 - nber.org
This paper reviews the theoretical functions, history, and policy problems raised by the
international capital market. The goal is to offer a perspective on both the considerable
advantages the market offers and on the genuine hazards it poses, as well as on the ...
Cited by 647 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 44 versions

[PDF] The unsustainable US current account position revisited

[PDF] from nber.org
M Obstfeld… - 2007 - nber.org
Five years ago, we published a paper (Obstfeld and Rogoff 2000a) arguing that the US
current account deficit—then running at 4.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—was
on an unsustainable trajectory over the medium term and that its inevitable reversal would ...
Cited by 617 - Related articles - View as HTML - BL Direct - All 61 versions

Commodity trade and international risk sharing* 1:: How much do financial markets matter?

[PDF] from sfu.ca
HL Cole… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1991 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper evaluates the social gains from international risk sharing in some simple
general-equilibrium models with output uncertainty. A simulation model calibrated to
selected moments of US and Japanese data estimates the incremental loss from a ban on ...
Cited by 598 - Related articles - All 22 versions

Nonlinear aspects of goods-market arbitrage and adjustment: Heckscher's commodity points revisited

[PDF] from virginia.edu
M Obstfeld… - 1997 - nber.org
We propose that analysis of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price (LOOP)
should explicitly take into account the possibility of commodity points' thresholds delineating
a region of no central tendency among relative prices, possibly due to lack of perfect ...
Cited by 553 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 21 versions

The intertemporal approach to the current account

[PDF] from wisc.edu
M Obstfeld… - Handbook of international economics, 1995 - Elsevier
Chapter 34 THE INTERTEMPORAL APPROACH TO THE CURRENT ACCOUNT MAURICE
OBSTFELD University of California, Berkeley and KENNETH ROGOFF* Princeton University
Contents 1. Introduction 2. The current account: Basic concepts and historical overview 3. ...
Cited by 530 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 15 versions

International capital mobility in the 1990s

[PDF] from federalreserve.gov
M Obstfeld - 1996 - nber.org
This paper surveys the performance of international capital markets and the literature on
measuring international capital mobility. Three main functions of a globally integrated and
efficient world capital market provide focal points for the analysis. First, asset-price ...
Cited by 500 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 11 versions

[BOOK] Global capital markets: integration, crisis, and growth

M Obstfeld… - 2004 - books.google.com
This book presents an economic survey of international capital mobility from the late
nineteenth century to the present. The authors examine the theory and empirical evidence
surrounding the fall and rise of integration in the world market. A discussion of institutional ...
Cited by 496 - Related articles - All 10 versions

[PDF] Globalization and capital markets

[PDF] from nber.org
M Obstfeld… - 2003 - nber.org
At the turn of the twenty-first century, the merits of international financial integration are
under more forceful attack than at any time since the 1940s. Even mainstream academic
proponents of free multilateral commodity trade, such as Bhagwati, argue that the risks of ...
Cited by 489 - Related articles - View as HTML - BL Direct - All 40 versions

Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement

M Obstfeld - 1986 - nber.org
This paper is a critical assessment of some recent empirical evidence on the extent of
international capital mobility. Its major conclusion is that while much of this evidence is
difficult to interpret without ambiguity, it is consistent with a world economy in which the ...
Cited by 469 - Related articles - All 9 versions

International interest-rate and price-level linkages under flexible exchange rates: A review of recent evidence

RE Cumby… - 1985 - nber.org
In an open economy, the scope for activist stabilization policy depends on the nature of the
lincages between domestic and international markets for goods and assets. Tgo important
relationships--purchasing power parity and uncovered interest-rate parity--have received ...
Cited by 450 - Related articles - All 12 versions

Regional Nonadjustment and Fiscal Policy: Lessons for EMU

M Obstfeld… - 1999 - nber.org
How will countries handle idiosyncratic national macroeconomic shocks under the
European single currency? The ways in which European countries now react to internally
asymmetric shocks provide a better forecast than do the regional response pattern of the ...
Cited by 413 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 14 versions

Aggregate spending and the terms of trade: Is there a Laursen-Metzler effect?

[PDF] from oxfordjournals.org
M Obstfeld - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1982 - qje.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract This paper investigates the spending and current-account effects of terms-of-trade
shifts in a model where households maximize utility over an infinite planning period. In the
framework developed here, an economy specialized in production must experience a fall ...
Cited by 408 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Intrinsic bubbles: The case of stock prices

[PDF] from hbs.edu
KA Froot… - 1992 - nber.org
In this paper we propose and test empirically a new rational-bubble specification with both
these properties. Our formulation is simple because it introduces no extraneous sources of
variability. Instead, the bubbles we examine are driven exclusively-albeit
Cited by 395 - Related articles - All 14 versions

Risk and exchange rates

[PDF] from 128.32.105.3
M Obstfeld… - 1998 - nber.org
This paper develops an explicitly stochastic new open economy macroeconomics' model,
which can potentially be used to explore the qualitative and quantitative welfare differences
between alternative exchange rate regimes. A crucial feature is that we do not simplify by ...
Cited by 389 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 25 versions

Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustments

[PDF] from iepecdg.com.br
M Obstfeld… - Brookings papers on economic activity, 2005 - JSTOR
This is the third in a series of papers we have written over the past five years about the
growing US current account deficit and the potentially sharp ex? change rate movements
any future adjustment toward current account bal? ance might imply. 1 The problem has ...
Cited by 386 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 50 versions

One money for Europe? Lessons from the US currency union

[PDF] from escholarship.org
B Eichengreen, M Obstfeld… - Economic Policy, 1990 - JSTOR
The creation of a monetary union in Europe is often justified by the desire to reap the full
benefits of economic integration. The complete removal of capital controls raises a large
number of issues. The case for free capital mobility is strong, but not overwhelming. It ...
Cited by 373 - Related articles - All 8 versions

The political economy of fiscal adjustments

[PDF] from josetavares.eu
A Alesina, R Perotti, J Tavares, M Obstfeld… - Brookings Papers on …, 1998 - JSTOR
FISCAL DISCIPLINE is currently the main macroeconomic problem faced by industrial and
developing countries. Following the fiscal profligacy of the 1970s and early 1980s, deficit
reduction has dominated the political economy debate during the past few years. The ...
Cited by 373 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 15 versions

Global implications of self-oriented national monetary rules

[PDF] from oxfordjournals.org
M Obstfeld… - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002 - qje.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract It is well-known that if international linkages are relatively small, the potential gains
to international monetary policy coordination are typically quite limited. But when goods and
financial markets are tightly linked, is it problematic if countries unilaterally design their ...
Cited by 336 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 37 versions

Speculative hyperinflations in maximizing models: Can we rule them out?

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Obstfeld… - 1983 - nber.org
Knife-edge stability is a common property of dynamic monetary models assuming perfect
foresight or rational expectations. These models can be closed with the assumption that the
economy's equilibrium lies on the unique convergent path (the saddlepath). While this ...
Cited by 308 - Related articles - All 13 versions

The Great Depression as a watershed: International capital mobility over the long run

[PDF] from j-bradford-delong.net
M Obstfeld… - 1999 - nber.org
This paper surveys the evolution of international capital mobility since the late nineteenth
century. We begin with an overview of empirical evidence on the fall and rise of integration
in the global capital market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on the use ...
Cited by 287 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 17 versions

International currency experience: new lessons and lessons relearned

M Obstfeld, R Dornbusch… - Brookings papers on economic …, 1995 - JSTOR
THE BROOKINGS PANEL on Economic Activity first met twenty-five years ago, at a moment
of temporary reprieve but ominous portent for the international monetary system. The Bretton
Woods system of pegged but adjustable dollar exchange rates had permitted the world ...
Cited by 258 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 7 versions

Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations

RE Cumby, J Huizinga… - Journal of Econometrics, 1983 - Elsevier
Abstract The paper develops a two-step estimator for use in rational-expectations models
with autocorrelated residuals and predetermined, but not strictly exogenous, instruments.
The estimator extends the applicability of McCallum's (1976) error-in-variablesapproach to ...
Cited by 255 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - Journal of International Economics, 1997 - Elsevier
This paper studies policy rules with escape clauses, analyzing as an example fixed
exchange rate systems that allow member countries the freedom to realign in periods of
stress. While well-designed, escape-clause rules can raise society's welfare in principle, ...
Cited by 255 - Related articles - All 18 versions

International macroeconomics: beyond the Mundell-Fleming model

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 2001 - nber.org
This lecture presents a broad overview of postwar analytical thinking on international
macroeconomics, culminating in a more detailed discussion of very recent progress. Along
the way, it reviews important empirical evidence that has inspired alternative modeling ...
Cited by 241 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 33 versions

Exchange-Rate Expectations and Nominal Interest Differentials: A Test ofthe Fisher Hypothesis

RE Cumby… - 1981 - nber.org
This note tests the hypothesis that nominal interest differentials between similar assets
denominated in different currencies can be explained entirely by the expected change in the
exchange rate over the holding period. This proposition, often called the" Fisher open" ...
Cited by 239 - Related articles - All 12 versions

Macroeconomic policy, exchange-rate dynamics, and optimal asset accumulation

[PDF] from nyu.edu
M Obstfeld - 1981 - nber.org
The paper develops a model of exchange-rate and current-account determination for a small
economy peopled by infinitely lived, utility-maximizing households. In this setting, a central-
bank purchase of foreign exchange has no real effects when central-bank foreign ...
Cited by 237 - Related articles - All 11 versions

The trilemma in history: Tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld, JC Shambaugh… - Review of Economics and …, 2005 - MIT Press
The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma,
which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and
capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some argue ...
Cited by 231 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 52 versions

Floating exchange rates: experience and prospects

M Obstfeld, RN Cooper… - Brookings Papers on Economic …, 1985 - JSTOR
WITH THE ABANDONMENT of fixed dollar exchange rates in March 1973, the world's
industrialized countries adopted temporarily a system of floating exchange rates that many
economists had advocated to permit individual nations to reconcile the often conflicting ...
Cited by 223 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Are industrial-country consumption risks globally diversified?

[PDF] from eui.eu
M Obstfeld - 1994 - nber.org
What idiosyncratic consumption risks can countries trade away on international asset
markets? This paper develops an empirical methodology for answering the question. The
tests are based on the proposition that in an integrated world asset market with ...
Cited by 223 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 11 versions

[BOOK] Foundations of international macroeconomics

[PDF] from kyoto-u.ac.jp
M Obstfeld, KS Rogoff… - 1996 - econ.kyoto-u.ac.jp
● The first three chapters→ models with a single commodity→ the relative prices never
change● Three goals of this chapter 1. to explain determinants of relative international price
movements; 2. to show how such price movements affect economic activity; 3. to provide a ...
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Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts:: A unified approach

KA Froot… - Journal of International Economics, 1991 - Elsevier
Abstract Simple techniques of regulated Brownian motion are used to analyze the behavior
of the exchange rate when official policy reaction functions are subject to future stochastic
changes. We examine exchange-rate dynamics in cases where the authorities promise (i) ...
Cited by 216 - Related articles - All 14 versions

Balance-of-payments crises and devaluation

M Obstfeld - 1984 - nber.org
The collapse of a fixed exchange rate is typically marked by a sudden balance-of-payments
crisis in which" speculators" fleeing from the domestic currency acquire a large portion of the
central bank's foreign exchange holdings. Faced with such an attack, the central bank ...
Cited by 203 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Evaluating risky consumption paths: the role of intertemporal substitutability

M Obstfeld - European Economic Review, 1994 - Elsevier
In dynamic stochastic welfare comparisons, a failure clearly to distinguish between risk
aversion and intertemporal substitutability can result in misleading assessments of the
impact of risk aversion on the welfare costs of consumption-risk changes. The problem ...
Cited by 197 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Intertemporal dependence, impatience, and dynamics

M Obstfeld - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1990 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper develops simple geometric methods for analyzing consumer behavior
under recursive but intertemporally dependent tastes. Since the preferences studied need
not be time-additive, they allow the marginal utility of consumption on a given date to vary ...
Cited by 184 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes

[PDF] from parisschoolofeconomics.eu
M Obstfeld… - 2010 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper makes a case that the global imbalances of the 2000s and the recent
global financial crisis are intimately connected. Both have their origins in economic policies
followed in a number of countries in the 2000s and in distortions that influenced the ...
Cited by 189 - Related articles - All 48 versions

Exchange-rate dynamics

M Obstfeld… - 1985 - nber.org
This paper discusses the dynamic behavior of exchange rates, focusing both on the
exchange rate's response to exogenous shocks and the relation between exchange-rate
movements and movements in important endogenous variables such as prices, interest ...
Cited by 160 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Default risk on government debt in OECD countries

[PDF] from unibocconi.it
A Alesina, M De Broeck, A Prati, G Tabellini… - Economic Policy, 1992 - JSTOR
Different European countries pay very different interest rates on their public debts. Will these
differences disappear if and when exchange rates come to be irrevocably fixed in the
European Monetary Union? Or rather will default risks in the high debt countries keep ...
Cited by 157 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 4 versions

Exchange rates and adjustment: perspectives from the new open economy macroeconomics

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 2002 - nber.org
The New Open Economy Macroeconomics has allowed economists to tackle classical
problems with new tools, while also generating new ideas and questions. In their attempts to
make the new models capture empirical regularities, researchers have entertained a ...
Cited by 151 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 24 versions

Can we sterilize? Theory and evidence

M Obstfeld - 1982 - nber.org
This paper is a highly selective review of our knowledge about the scope for sterilized
intervention in foreign exchange markets under alternative exchange-rate regimes. Section I
demonstrates the potential importance of simultaneous-equations bias in single-equation ...
Cited by 149 - Related articles - All 13 versions

Financial stability, the trilemma, and international reserves

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
M Obstfeld, JC Shambaugh… - 2008 - nber.org
The rapid growth of international reserves---a development concentrated in the emerging
markets---remains a puzzle. In this paper we suggest that a model based on financial
stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the ...
Cited by 148 - Related articles - All 54 versions

[PDF] The effectiveness of foreign-exchange intervention: Recent experience, 1985-1988

[PDF] from nber.org
M Obstfeld - 1990 - nber.org
But ultimately there are limits to what can be achieved by a pure intervention policy. The
monetary crises under the Bretton Woods system showed that powerful market trends
cannot be suppressed through exchange market interventions by central banks, and more ...
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Perspectives on OECD economic integration: implications for US current account adjustment

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld… - Global Economic Integration: …, 2000 - books.google.com
The US current account deficit surged to 3.7 percent of GDP in 1999, up from an already
high average of 1.7 percent of GDP during 1992-1998. Over the next two years, the deficit is
projected to grow even more, reaching 4.3 percent of GDP in the current year 2000, and ...
Cited by 143 - Related articles - All 47 versions

External adjustment

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 2004 - nber.org
Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990,
and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant
fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and ...
Cited by 132 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 27 versions

Reputation and credibility in the European Monetary System

AA Weber, R Baldwin… - Economic Policy, 1991 - JSTOR
This article provides a quantitative assessment of the credibility of the European Monetary
System during the disinflation period of the 1980s. The results contradict the widely held
view that the EMS has operated as a DM-zone. It is shown that, after a brief early phase, ...
Cited by 123 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Exchange rates, inflation and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981

M Obstfeld - 1983 - nber.org
When the goals of internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium are in conflict, sterilized
intervention in the foreign exchange market may provide an independent policy instrument
through which the central bank can resolve its dilemma in the short run. This paper is ...
Cited by 122 - Related articles - All 11 versions

Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy with finite lifetimes

GA Calvo… - Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1988 - JSTOR
This paper analyzes aspects of optimal fiscal policy for economies with capital accumulation
and finitely-lived, heterogeneous agents. For a particular utilitarian social welfare function,
the problem faced by a central planner can be broken down into two subproblems, a ...
Cited by 120 - Related articles - All 5 versions

Speculative attack and the external constraint in a maximizing model of the balance of payments

M Obstfeld - 1986 - nber.org
This paper analyzes inevitable transitions between fixed and floating exchange-rate regimes
in a balance-of-payments model where individual preferences are explicitly specified. The
goal is to assessthe analogy between speculative attacks in foreign exchange markets ...
Cited by 120 - Related articles - All 8 versions

How integrated are world capital markets? Some new tests

M Obstfeld - 1989 - nber.org
This paper present some new empirical evidence on the extent of world capital-market
integration. The first set of tests carried out uses data from different countries to compare
internationally expected marginal rates of substitution between consumption on different ...
Cited by 113 - Related articles - All 5 versions

The case for open-market purchases in a liquidity trap

[PDF] from escholarship.org
AJ Auerbach… - The American economic review, 2005 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of
money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations
ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even were this ...
Cited by 116 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 30 versions

Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870–1913 versus 1925–31*

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld… - The Economic Journal, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bond market from the 1870s to the
1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the
interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled ...
Cited by 111 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 33 versions

International Finance and Growth in Developing Countries: What Have We Learned&quest

[PDF] from growthcommission.org
M Obstfeld - IMF Staff Papers, 2009 - palgrave-journals.com
Abstract Despite an abundance of cross-sectional, panel, and event studies, there is
strikingly little convincing documentation of direct positive impacts of financial opening on
the economic welfare levels or growth rates of developing countries. The econometric ...
Cited by 112 - Related articles - All 35 versions

[BOOK] Economía internacional: teoría y política

[DOC] from carlospitta.com
PR Krugman, M Obstfeld, JT Garuz, ES Díaz… - 1999 - carlospitta.com
Paul R. Krugman y Maurice Obstfeld. Economìa internacional. Teoría y política.
Cuarta edición, 1999. Mc Graw Hill. Capitulo 12. Ejercicio 3.- Explique como cada
una de las siguientes transacciones origina dos anotaciones ...
Cited by 1085 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 8 versions

Financial instability, reserves, and central bank swap lines in the panic of 2008

[PDF] from zjgsu.edu.cn
M Obstfeld, JC Shambaugh… - 2009 - nber.org
In this paper we connect the events of the last twelve months," The Panic of 2008" as it has
been called, to the demand for international reserves. In previous work, we have shown that
international reserve demand can be rationalized by a central bank's desire to backstop ...
Cited by 111 - Related articles - All 33 versions

Fiscal deficits and relative prices in a growing world economy

M Obstfeld - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper studies the transmission of fiscal disturbances between countries and
the effect of those disturbances on worldwide capital intensity in a context of growth. The
model developed to address these issues allows for the production of both nontradable ...
Cited by 105 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Europe's gamble

[PDF] from brookings.edu
M Obstfeld, A Alesina… - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1997 - JSTOR
AFTER THREE DECADES, the quest for European monetary unification may well bear fruit
on January 1, 1999. On that date the European Union (EU) plans to introduce a common
currency, the euro, in member states that satisfy specified macroeconomic convergence ...
Cited by 100 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 9 versions

Dynamic seigniorage theory: An exploration

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 1989 - nber.org
This paper shows that the optimal extraction of seigniorage implies a strong tendency for
inflation to fall over time toward its socially optimal level. The point is made using a multi-
period model in which (i) the government can finance deficits through bond issue or ...
Cited by 92 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 20 versions

Exchange rate dynamics with sluggish prices under alternative price-adjustment rules

[PDF] from federalreserve.gov
M Obstfeld… - 1984 - nber.org
This paper studies exchange rate behavior in models with moving long-run equilibria
incorporating alternative price-adjustment mechanisms. The paper demonstrates that price-
adjustment rules proposed by Mussa andby Barro and Grossman yield models that are ...
Cited by 85 - Related articles - All 11 versions

Ruling out divergent speculative bubbles

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Obstfeld… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1986 - Elsevier
Abstract The growth in the empirical literature on testing for divergent (in mean) speculative
bubbles indicates that existing theoretical arguments for ruling out such price paths are not
sufficiently compelling. Here we strengthen the case for ruling out explosive or implosive ...
Cited by 83 - Related articles - All 8 versions

German unification: the economics of transition

H Siebert, M Burda… - Economic Policy, 1991 - JSTOR
Political unification has provided East Germany with an institutional infrastructure and
monetary stability. Now the socialist firm must transform itself. While property rights are
established under German law, ownership assignment remains to be determined in a ...
Cited by 85 - Related articles - All 5 versions

[PDF] Capital Mobility and the Scope for Sterilization: Mexico in the 1970s

[PDF] from nber.org
RE Cumby… - 1983 - nber.org
This paper studies the interaction between Mexico's capital account and domestic credit
policy during the decade 1970-1980. It seeks in particular to measure the offset to monetary
policy caused by interest-sensitive capital flows, and, in doing so, is careful to account for ...
Cited by 82 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 12 versions

EMU: ready, or not?

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 1999 - nber.org
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage
Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems
of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. ...
Cited by 83 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 28 versions

Saving, investment, and gold: A reassessment of historical current account data

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
MT Jones… - 1997 - nber.org
This paper revises pre-World War II current account data for thirteen countries by treating
gold flows on a consistent basis. The standard historical data sources often fail to distinguish
between monetary gold exports, which are capital-account credits, and nonmonetary gold ...
Cited by 79 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 15 versions

The capital inflows problem revisited: a stylized model of southern cone disinflation

M Obstfeld - The Review of Economic Studies, 1985 - restud.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract In the late 1970s, countries in Latin America's Southern Cone initiated attempts to
lower domestic inflation rates through the progressive reduction of a preannounced rate of
exchange-rate devaluation. The stabilization programs gave rise to massive capital ...
Cited by 77 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Capital controls, the dual exchange rate, and devaluation

M Obstfeld - Journal of International Economics, 1986 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper re-examines the effect of devaluation under capital-account restrictions,
adding to traditional formulations the seemingly minor (but realistic) assumption that central-
bank reserves earn interest. In an intertemporal model, devaluation is no longer neutral in ...
Cited by 75 - Related articles - All 10 versions

International economics: theory and policy

R Krugman Paul… - 2003 - en.scientificcommons.org
Abstract International Economics: Theory and Policy is the best-selling textbook in the field
written by two of the world's leading economists, Paul R. Krugman of Princeton University
and Maurice Obstfeld of the University of California, Berkeley. The Sixth Edition provides ...
Cited by 76 - Related articles - Cached - All 2 versions

Intermediate imports, the terms of trade, and the dynamics of the exchange rate and current account

M Obstfeld - Journal of International Economics, 1980 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an increase in the price of an
imported intermediate production input. The framework of the analysis is a small open
economy with a floating exchange rate and endogenous terms of trade, in which saving ...
Cited by 69 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Capital mobility and devaluation in an optimizing model with rational expectations

M Obstfeld - 1981 - nber.org
This paper examines the effects of ex-change-rate policies when individuals maximize
lifetime utility on the basis of rational expectations about the future. The economy studied is
one in which the authorities allow free mobility of capital under a crawling-peg exchange- ...
Cited by 61 - Related articles - All 11 versions

[PDF] International risk sharing and the costs of trade

[PDF] from 128.32.105.3
M Obstfeld - Ohlin Lectures, Stockholm School of Economics, 2007 - 128.32.105.3
 If we examine assets and liabilities separately, E foreign assets (as a GDP share) caught
up with D foreign assets (as a GDP share) in the late 1990s. E liabilities remain higher than
E assets, but D liabilities are much higher (again, relative to GDP). The trend of both ...
Cited by 64 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 10 versions

Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current-account deficit

M Obstfeld - Journal of International Money and Finance, 1983 - Elsevier
Abstract The paper studies the effects of terms-of-trade fluctuations in an infinite-horizon
optimizing model of a small, open economy. While the current-account response to a
transitory terms-of-trade shock is in part explicable by intertemporal smoothing, an ...
Cited by 61 - Related articles - All 9 versions

Monetary policy in the open economy revisited: The case for exchange-rate flexibility restored

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
M Duarte… - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2008 - Elsevier
This paper revisits the sticky-price pricing-to-market model of Devereux and Engel
[Devereux, MB, Engel, C., 2003. Monetary policy in the open economy revisited: price setting
and exchange-rate flexibility. Review of Economic Studies 70 (4), 765–783], in which fixed ...
Cited by 59 - Related articles - All 21 versions

[PDF] The adjustment mechanism

[PDF] from nber.org
M Obstfeld - 1993 - nber.org
Can we afford to allow a disproportionate degree of mobility to a single element in an
economic system which we leave extremely rigid in several other respects? If there was the
same mobility internationally in all other respects as there is nationally, it might be a ...
Cited by 58 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 11 versions

The case for open-market purchases in a liquidity trap

[PDF] from berkeley.edu
AJ Auerbach… - 2003 - nber.org
Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and
bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective
for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even were this the case, ...
Cited by 57 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 30 versions

[CITATION] Global Capital Markets: Integration

M Obstfeld… - Crisis and Growth. Cambridge University Press, 2004
Cited by 58 - Related articles

Foreign resource inflows, saving, and growth

M Obstfeld - The Economics of Saving and Growth, 1999 - books.google.com
This chapter surveys aspects of the empirical and theoretical debate over the effects of
foreign resource inflows on national saving, investment, and growth.'The debate originated
in the early 1960s in attempts to assess the role of capital inflows in development. But ...
Cited by 54 - Related articles - All 5 versions

Time consistency of fiscal and monetary policy: A comment

GA Calvo… - Econometrica, 1990 - JSTOR
Hence, there is a choice of 7ro large enough that the government budget exhibits a surplus
(ie,(2) holds as a strict inequality). Given mi,, which is one of the variables under control of
government 0, changes in 70 do not directly affect utility. It is therefore trivial to show that ...
Cited by 54 - Related articles - All 7 versions

[CITATION] Model trending real exchange rates

M Obstfeld - Center for International and Development …, 1993 - econpapers.repec.org
... Please update your bookmarks. Model Trending Real Exchange Rates. Maurice Obstfeld.
No C93-011, Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER)
Working Papers from University of California at Berkeley. ...
Cited by 53 - Related articles - Cached - All 4 versions

Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar Period

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld, JC Shambaugh… - 2004 - nber.org
The interwar period was marked by the end of the classical gold standard regime and new
levels of macroeconomic disorder in the world economy. The interwar disorder often is
linked to policies inconsistent with the constraint of the open-economy trilemma the ...
Cited by 53 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 39 versions

[Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?]: Comment

M Obstfeld - NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1996 - JSTOR
1. His first claim concerns the "new" literature that views speculative attacks as the outcome of
a game between purposeful governments and profit-maximizing markets. Krugman argues that
this literature takes the position that "attacks on fixed exchange rates are not, as had ...
Cited by 51 - Related articles

Multiple stable equilibria in an optimizing perfect-foresight model

M Obstfeld - Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1984 - JSTOR
IN ANALYZING ASSET-MARKET MODELS assuming perfect foresight or rational expecta-
tions, it has become customary to consider only solution paths satisfying a set of terminal
convergence conditions. The imposition of these side conditions is usually justified on the ...
Cited by 48 - Related articles - All 4 versions

Do we really need a new international monetary compact?

[PDF] from harvard.edu
M Obstfeld… - 2000 - nber.org
In recent years, many countries have instituted monetary reforms aimed at improving anti-
inflation credibility. Is it a problem, however, that international welfare spillover effects
seldom receive much consideration in the design of monetary reforms? Surprisingly, the ...
Cited by 46 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 9 versions

[CITATION] (1996), Foundations of International Macroeconomics

M Obstfeld… - 1996 - Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT …
Cited by 44 - Related articles

The capitalization of income streams and the effects of open-market policy under fixed exchange rates

M Obstfeld - Journal of Monetary Economics, 1982 - Elsevier
Abstract This paper investigates the long-and short-run neutrality of open-market monetary
policy in a world of fixed exchange rates and imperfect substitutability between bonds
denominated in different currencies. Using an illustrative portfolio-balance model, it shows ...
Cited by 39 - Related articles - All 10 versions

Capital Controls: Some Principles and the French Experience [with Comments]

EM Claassen, C Wyplosz, P De Grauwe… - Annales de l'INSEE, 1982 - JSTOR
The first part of this paper considers the extent of the case for capital controls in the literature.
It examines the long run effects of such controls on resource allocation, and the possibility
that the controls increase policy independence in the short run. The second part is ...
Cited by 36 - Related articles

Globalization, macroeconomic performance, and the exchange rates of emerging economies

[PDF] from escholarship.org
M Obstfeld - 2004 - nber.org
Among the developing countries of the world, those emerging markets that have sought
some degree of integration into world finance are characterized by higher per capita
incomes, higher long-run growth rates, and lower output and consumption volatility. These ...
Cited by 33 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 21 versions

Open‐Economy Macroeconomics: Developments in Theory and Policy

M Obstfeld - The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 1998 - Wiley Online Library
2. Abstract This paper views developments in open-economy macroeconomics through the
lens of the debate over European monetary unification. The empirical tendency for nominal
exchange rate regimes to affect the variability of nominal and real exchange rates alike ...
Cited by 32 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 9 versions

[BOOK] Économie internationale

PR Krugman, M Obstfeld… - 2003 - books.google.com
Best-seller de deux des plus influents économistes du monde, cet ouvrage constitue une
base de travail indispensable pour tous ceux qui s' intéressent aux principes ou à l'actualité
de l'économie internationale. Il est le support essentiel pour l'enseignement de ces ...
Cited by 173 - Related articles - All 6 versions

Peso problems, bubbles, and risk in the empirical assessment of exchange-rate behavior

M Obstfeld - 1989 - nber.org
One of the most puzzling aspects of the post-1973 floating exchange rate system has been
the apparently inefficient predictive performance of forward exchange rates. This paper
explores some aspects of each of three leading explanations of forward-rate behavior. ...
Cited by 30 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Pricing-to-market, the interest-rate rule, and the exchange rate

[PDF] from bcrp.gob.pe
M Obstfeld - 2006 - nber.org
Prepared for the conference in honor of Guillermo A. Calvo, International Monetary Fund,
April 15-16, 2004. I thank Ricardo Caballero, Mathias Hoffmann, and conference
participants for helpful comments. This paper will appear as a chapter in a festschrift in ...
Cited by 31 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 19 versions

A strategy for launching the Euro

M Obstfeld - European Economic Review, 1998 - Elsevier
This paper analyzes the constraints European Union law places on the 1 January 1999
choices of irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the Euro and the currencies of EMU
members states. Current EU legislation, notably the Maastricht treaty, requires that the ...
Cited by 29 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 14 versions

[CITATION] Effects of foreign resource inflows on saving: a methodological overview

M Obstfeld - mimeograph, University of California, Berkeley,(April …, 1995
Cited by 28 - Related articles

[CITATION] Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Chapter 4

M Obstfeld… - 1996 - The MIT Press
Cited by 27 - Related articles

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