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Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market

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Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson, R Oprea… - Journal of Economic Behavior & …, 2006 - Elsevier
Prediction markets are increasingly being considered as methods for gathering,
summarizing and aggregating diffuse information by governments and businesses alike.
Critics worry that these markets are susceptible to price manipulation by agents who wish ...
Cited by 108 - Related articles - All 24 versions

Decision markets

R Hanson - Entrepreneurial economics: bright ideas from the …, 2002 - books.google.com
The human part of any large intelligent system is by far the most intelligent part. As long as
this remains true, the biggest system advancements will come from aids that fill big holes in
human abilities, rather than from artifacts that stretch engineers' abilities. Consider Post-it ...
Cited by 105 - Related articles - All 3 versions

Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation

Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2007 - ingentaconnect.com
Abstract: In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while
betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine
these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more ...
Cited by 99 - Related articles - All 6 versions

Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus

R Hanson - 1995 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract The pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our academic
institutions to reward being popular rather than being right. A market‐based alternative,
where scientists can more formally 'stake their reputation', is presented here. It offers clear ...
Cited by 78 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 2 versions

[PDF] The promise of prediction markets

[PDF] from arlingtoneconomics.com
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KJ Arrow, R Forsythe, M Gorham… - … -NEW YORK THEN …, 2008 - arlingtoneconomics.com
Information revelation through time. Data are from the Iowa Electronic Markets for markets
predicting the two-party vote shares from the 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential
elections (19). The vertical axis plots the average absolute difference between the market ...
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[PDF] Manipulators increase information market accuracy

[PDF] from rutgers.edu
R Hanson… - George Mason University, 2004 - dmac.rutgers.edu
Abstract Information markets are low volume markets whose prices offer informative
estimates on particular policy topics of interest. Observers have expressed concern that such
prices might be less informative due to manipulators, ie, traders who prefer that we see ...
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[PDF] Shall we vote on values, but bet on beliefs?

[PDF] from accela-labs.com
R Hanson - Sept.) George Mason Working Paper, 2003 - namcub.accela-labs.com
Abstract Democracies often fail to aggregate information, while speculative markets excel at
this task. We consider a new form of governance, wherein voters would say what we want,
but speculators would say how to get it. Elected representatives would oversee the after- ...
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Gaming prediction markets: Equilibrium strategies with a market maker

[PDF] from harvard.edu
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Y Chen, S Dimitrov, R Sami, DM Reeves… - Algorithmica, 2010 - Springer
Page 1. Algorithmica (2010) 58: 930–969 DOI 10.1007/s00453-009-9323-2 Gaming
Prediction Markets: Equilibrium Strategies with a Market Maker Yiling Chen · Stanko
Dimitrov · Rahul Sami · Daniel M. Reeves · David M. Pennock ...
Cited by 32 - Related articles - All 17 versions

Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets

[PDF] from pp.ua
Y Chen, DM Reeves, DM Pennock… - Proceedings of the 3rd …, 2007 - dl.acm.org
Page 1. Bluffing and Strategic Reticence in Prediction Markets⋆ Yiling Chen1, Daniel M.
Reeves1, David M. Pennock1, Robin D. Hanson2, Lance Fortnow3, and Rica Gonen1 1 Yahoo!
Research 2 George Mason University 3 University of Chicago Abstract. ...
Cited by 25 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 31 versions

Designing real terrorism futures

[PDF] from ox.ac.uk
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RD Hanson - Public Choice, 2006 - Springer
Page 1. Public Choice (2006) 128:257–274 DOI 10.1007/s11127-006-9053-9
ORIGINAL ARTICLE Designing real terrorism futures Robin D. Hanson C Springer
Science + Business Media BV 2006 Abstract In July 2003, the ...
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[PDF] Foul play in information markets

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - George Mason University, 2004 - hanson.gmu.edu
People have long noticed that speculative markets, though created for other purposes, also
do a great job of aggregating relevant information. In fact, it is hard to find information not
embodied by such market prices. This is, in part, because anyone who finds such ...
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An experimental test of combinatorial information markets

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J Ledyard, R Hanson… - Journal of Economic Behavior & …, 2009 - Elsevier
While a simple information market lets one trade on the probability of each value of a single
variable, a full combinatorial information market lets one trade on any combination of values
of a set of variables, including any conditional or joint probability. In laboratory ...
Cited by 21 - Related articles - All 14 versions

[HTML] If uploads come first

[HTML] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Extropy, 1994 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract What if we someday learn how to model small brain units, and so can" upload"
ourselves into new computer brains? What if this happens before we learn how to make
human-level artificial intelligences? The result could be a sharp transition to an upload- ...
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[PDF] Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation

[PDF] from googlecode.com
R Hanson - George Mason University, 2002 - newmerks.googlecode.com
Abstract In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while
betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine
these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more ...
Cited by 20 - Related articles - View as HTML - All 15 versions

[HTML] Idea futures: encouraging an honest consensus

[HTML] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Extropy, 1992 - hanson.gmu.edu
Are you fascinated by some basic questions about science, technology, and our future?
Questions like: Is cryonics technically feasible? When will nano-assemblers be feasible and
how quickly will resulting changes come? Does a larger population help or hinder the ...
Cited by 18 - Related articles - Cached - All 2 versions

A manipulator can aid prediction market accuracy

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R Hanson… - Economica, 2009 - Wiley Online Library
Prediction markets are low volume speculative markets whose prices offer informative
forecasts on particular policy topics. Observers worry that traders may attempt to mislead
decision makers by manipulating prices. We adapt a Kyle-style market microstructure ...
Cited by 18 - Related articles - All 14 versions

Consensus by identifying extremists

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RD Hanson - Theory and Decision, 1998 - Springer
Page 1. ROBIN D. HANSON CONSENSUS BY IDENTIFYING EXTREMISTS
ABSTRACT. Given a finite state space and common priors, common knowledge
of the identity of an agent with the minimal (or maximal) expectation ...
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[PDF] Decision markets for policy advice

[PDF] from regulation2point0.org
R Hanson - … the General Welfare: American Democracy and …, 2006 - regulation2point0.org
Executive Summary The main cause of bad policy decisions is arguably a lack of
information. Decisionmakers often do not make use of relevant information about the
consequences of the policies they choose. The problem, however, is not simply that public ...
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The Policy Analysis Market (A Thwarted Experiment in the Use of Prediction Markets for Public Policy)

Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, 2007 - MIT Press
Robin Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University, and a
research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. After receiving his
Ph. D. in social science from the California Institute of Technology in 1997, Robin was a ...
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Statement on prediction markets

K Arrow, S Sunder, R Forsythe, R Litan… - AEI-Brookings Joint …, 2007 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the
outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets
as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public ...
Cited by 14 - Related articles - All 3 versions

Disagreement is unpredictable

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R Hanson - Economics Letters, 2002 - Elsevier
Given common priors, no agent can publicly estimate a non-zero sign for the difference
between his estimate and another agent's future estimate. Thus rational agents cannot
publicly anticipate the direction in which other agents will disagree with them.
Cited by 13 - Related articles - All 9 versions

[HTML] The great filter-are we almost past it?

[HTML] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - preprint available at http://hanson. gmu. edu/ …, 1998 - hanson.gmu.edu
Humanity seems to have a bright future, ie, a non-trivial chance of expanding to fill the
universe with lasting life. But the fact that space near us seems dead now tells us that any
given piece of dead matter faces an astronomically low chance of begating such a future. ...
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[PDF] Correction to McKelvey and Page," Public and Private Information: An Experimental Study of Information Pooling"

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R Hanson - ECONOMETRICA-EVANSTON ILL-, 1996 - Citeseer
The above mentioned article, McKelvey and Page (1990), errs in calculating the
consequences of myopicrational responses to the payoffs used in the experiments it
describes. This invalidates the article's proof that myopic responses are a non-myopic ...
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[PDF] Are disagreements honest

[PDF] from mercatus.org
T Cowen… - Journal of Economic Methodology, 2002 - mercatus.org
ABSTRACT We review literatures on agreeing to disagree and on the rationality of differing
priors, in order to evaluate the honesty of typical disagreements. A robust result is that
honest truth-seeking agents with common priors should not knowingly disagree. Typical ...
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[CITATION] Market-based foresight-A proposal

R Hanson - Foresight Update, 1990
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[PS] Showing that you care: the evolution of health altruism

[PS] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - URL: http://hanson. gmu. edu/bioerr. pdf, 2000 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract Altruism, or directly caring about the outcomes of others, is often suggested as an
important explanation for otherwise puzzling phenomena in health policy. There are many
possible “altruists,” however, depending on which people and outcomes the altruist cares ...
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Catastrophe, social collapse, and human extinction

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Global Catastrophic Risks, 2008 - books.google.com
Modern society is a bicycle, with economic growth being the forward momentum that keeps
the wheels spinning. As long as the wheels of a bicycle are spinning rapidly, it is a very
stable vehicle indeed. But,[Friedman] argues, when the wheels stop–even as the result of ...
Cited by 8 - Related articles - All 8 versions

Uncommon priors require origin disputes

[PDF] from ox.ac.uk
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R Hanson - Theory and decision, 2006 - Springer
Abstract In standard belief models, priors are always common knowledge. This prevents
such models from representing agents' probabilistic beliefs about the origins of their priors.
By embedding standard models in a larger standard model, however, pre-priors can ...
Cited by 8 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 15 versions

[PDF] Patterns of Patronage: Why Grants Won Over Prizes in Science

[PDF] from atriumtech.com
R Hanson - University of California, Berkeley, 1998 - atriumtech.com
Abstract Prizes were a common way to patronize basic research in the eighteenth century.
Science historians say grants then won over prizes because grants are a superior institution.
If different patron types tend to use different patronage forms, however, perhaps the patron ...
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Why health is not special: Errors in evolved bioethics intuitions

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R Hanson - Social Philosophy and Policy, 2002 - Cambridge Univ Press
There is a widespread feeling that health is special; the rules that are usually used in other
policy areas are not applied in health policy. Health economists, for example, tend to be
reluctant to offer economists' usual prescription of competition and consumer choice, even ...
Cited by 7 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 5 versions

[PDF] Must early life be easy? the rhythm of major evolutionary transitions

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Unpublished. http://hanson. gmu. edu/hardstep. pdf, 1998 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract If we are not to conclude that most planets like Earth have evolved life as intelligent
as we are, we must presume Earth is not random. This selection effect, however, also
implies that the origin of life need not be as easy as the early appearance of life on Earth ...
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[PDF] The informed press favored the policy analysis market

[PDF] from psu.edu
R Hanson - George Mason University, 2005 - Citeseer
Abstract The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), otherwise known (inaccurately) as “terrorism
futures,” burst into public view in a firestorm of condemnation on July 29, 2003, and was
canceled within one day. We look at the impression given of PAM by five hundred media ...
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Insider trading and prediction markets

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - JL Econ. & Pol'y, 2007 - HeinOnline
Abstract Rules limiting insider trading may encourage investment, but they may also
discourage exploration of new less-decentralized corporate information processes, such as
prediction and decision markets. I review standard corporate information processes and ...
Cited by 6 - Related articles - All 8 versions

[PDF] Idea futures

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Wired, 1995 - hanson.gmu.edu
Are you fascinated by some basic questions about science, technology, and our future?
Questions like: Is cryonics technically feasible? When will nanoassemblers be feasible and
how quickly will resulting changes come? Does a larger population help or hinder the ...
Cited by 6 - Related articles - View as HTML - Get it from MIT Libraries - All 6 versions

For Bayesian wannabes, are disagreements not about information?

[PDF] from psu.edu
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R Hanson - Theory and decision, 2003 - Springer
Consider two agents who want to be Bayesians with a common prior, but who cannot due to
computational limitations. If these agents agree that their estimates are consistent with
certain easy-to-compute consistency constraints, then they can agree to disagree about ...
Cited by 5 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 14 versions

[CITATION] Impolite Innovation-The technology and politics of'terrorism futures' and other decision markets

R Hanson - Promoting the General Welfare: American Democracy …, 2006
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Warning labels as cheap-talk: why regulators ban drugs

[PDF] from gmu.edu
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R Hanson - Journal of Public Economics, 2003 - Elsevier
One explanation for drug bans is that regulators know more than consumers about product
quality. But why not just communicate the information in their ban, perhaps via a 'would have
banned'label? Because product labeling is cheap-talk, any small market failure tempts ...
Cited by 5 - Related articles - All 10 versions

[CITATION] Information markets

M Abramowicz, JE Berg, R Hanson, JO Ledyard… - … , and Predictive Cost- …, 2006
Cited by 5 - Related articles

Appendix. Comparing peer review and information prizes: a possible economics experiment

R Hanson - 1995 - Taylor & Francis
Heavy reliance is currently placed on various forms of peer review to promote the growth of
basic knowledge. 1 How well do these various forms of peer review promote such growth
and how well do our current institutions compare, as systems of incentives and ...
Cited by 5 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 2 versions

[PDF] Four Puzzles in Information and Politics: Product Bans, Informed Voters, Social Insurance, & Persistent Disagreement

[PDF] from psu.edu
RD Hanson - 1997 - Citeseer
Page 1. Four Puzzles in Information and Politics: Product Bans, Informed Voters, Social
Insurance, & Persistent Disagreement Thesis by Robin D. Hanson In Partial Ful llment
of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 1891 ...
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Showing that you care: The evolution of health altruism

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Medical hypotheses, 2008 - Elsevier
Human behavior regarding medicine seems strange; assumptions and models that seem
workable in other areas seem less so in medicine. Perhaps, we need to rethink the basics.
Toward this end, I have collected many puzzling stylized facts about behavior regarding ...
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[HTML] Buy health, not health care

[HTML] from cato.org
R Hanson - COMMUNICATIONS, 1993 - cato.org
Perhaps some simple change will do the trick, like relying less on insurance and employers as
middlemen. But if we are willing to consider radical change, let me offer a different
suggestion. We are buying the wrong thing. What we want is health, ie, a long healthy life, ...
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[PDF] On market maker functions

[PDF] from gmu.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - The Journal of Prediction Markets, 2009 - hanson.gmu.edu
The main function performed by most market makers is to serve as an intermediary between
people who prefer to trade at different times. Traders who have the same favorite times to
trade can show up together to an ordinary continuous double auction, and then make and ...
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[CITATION] Given Early Success, Hard Tasks Look Easy

RD Hanson - 1996 - Working Paper, September
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[PDF] Eliciting objective probabilities via lottery insurance games

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - 2002 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract Since utilities and probabilities jointly determine choices, event-dependent utilities
complicate the elicitation of subjective event probabilities. However, for the usual purpose of
obtaining the information embodied in agent beliefs, it is sufficient to elicit objective ...
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[CITATION] The Rise, Preservation, and Transformation of the Virginia School of Political Economy

DM Levy, SJ Peart… - Accessed on-line, June, 2007
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[PDF] He who pays the piper must know the tune

[PDF] from psu.edu
R Hanson - George Mason University, Department of Economics, 2003 - Citeseer
Abstract He who pays the piper calls the tune, but how can he call for a tune that he will not
recognize when he hears it? Previous models, of two candidates competing for a voter and
of firm managers impressing stock speculators, found experts neglecting their superior ...
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[PDF] Book Orders for Market Scoring Rules

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - George Manson University, 2003 - hanson.gmu.edu
Let there be a complete set I of possible states i. To bet on the probability P(i), one can buy an
asset of the form “Pays $1 if true state is i” for a cash price $ pi. This looks like a good deal if one
believes P(i) > pi. To bet on the probability P(E) of an set E of mutually exclusive possible ...
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[CITATION] Idea futures: Encouraging an honest consensus. Extropy, 3 (2): 7 1 7, 1 992

RD Hanson
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A chilling experience: the treatment of a Robert Rauschenberg 'Hoarfrost'painting'

ZA Perkins, RM Hanson, J Randolph… - American Institute for …, 2003 - bcin.ca
Close Document Image Close Document Printer Image Print This Document!
Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Perkins, Zoe Annis Editor: Hanson,
Robin M.; Randolph, Julie; Halvorson, Bonnie Title Article/Chapter ...
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Game Theory in Public Choice

RD Hanson - The Encyclopedia of Public Choice, 2003 - Springer
Page 1. until one is maimed, killed, or flees — or like doves — posturing a bit but
leaving before any serious harm is done. (In effect, the doves cooperate while the
hawks do not.) Neither type of behavior, it turns out, is ideal for ...
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[PDF] Disagreement as Self-Deception About Meta-Rationality

[PDF] from holtz.org
T Cowen, R Hanson, M Kelley, T Morrow… - 2002 - holtz.org
ABSTRACT Honest truth-seeking agents should not agree to disagree. This result is robust
to many perturbations. Such agents are" meta-rational" when they act as if they realize this
result. The ubiquity of disagreement, however, suggests that very few people, academics ...
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[CITATION] Manipulators increase market accuracy

R Hanson… - Mimeograph, George Mason University, 2004
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Making sense of medical paternalism

[PDF] from ox.ac.uk
R Hanson - Medical Hypotheses, 2008 - Elsevier
Why do we regulate the substances we can ingest, the advisors we can hear, and the
products we can buy far more than similarly-important non-health choices? I review many
possible arguments for such paternalistic policies, as well many possible holes in such ...
Cited by 2 - Related articles - All 5 versions

[CITATION] Prefer law to values

R Hanson - Overcoming Bias, 2009
Cited by 3 - Related articles

[PDF] The next really big enormous thing

[PDF] from futurebrief.com
R Hanson - Future Brief, 2004 - futurebrief.com
A postcard summary of life, the universe and everything might go as follows. The universe
appeared and started expanding. Life appeared somewhere and then on Earth began
making larger and smarter animals. Humans appeared and became smarter and more ...
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[CITATION] Policy analysis market archive

R Hanson - George Mason University. Retrieved January, 2003
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[CITATION] The Story of Idea Futures

R Hanson, S Morgan… - Prix Ars Electronica 95, International Compendium …, 1995
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[CITATION] Disagreement as evidence of self-deception about metarationality

T Cowen… - 2002 - unpublished manuscript, George …
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[PDF] Economics of brain emulations

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Tomorrow's people-proceedings of the james martin …, 2008 - hanson.gmu.edu
Technologists think about specific future technologies, which they may foresee in some
detail. Unfortunately, such technologists then mostly use amateur intuitions about the social
world to predict the broader social implications of these technologies. This makes it hard ...
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Effects of using minomi in in-plant materials supply

Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - Journal of Manufacturing Technology …, 2011 - emeraldinsight.com
Purpose–“Minomi” is a unit load where no container is used. The aim of this paper is to
identify the effects of using minomi in the materials supply within an assembly plant.
Design/methodology/approach–Based on three case studies within the body shop of ...
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[PDF] Five nanotech social scenarios

[PDF] from wtec.org
R Hanson - Nanotechnology: Societal Implications—Individual …, 2006 - wtec.org
During the dotcom boom, popular discussions about the future of the Internet often included
claims of dramatic social implications; the “new economy” was said to follow new rules [1].
This hype was ridiculed after the dotcom crash, but the Internet did, in fact, bring real ...
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Summary of Potential Artifact Damage from Low Temperature Pest Management

E Carrlee, JL Merrit, B Halvorson… - … , Volume 12: A Joint Session with … - bcin.ca
Close Document Image Close Document Printer Image Print This Document!
Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Carrlee, Ellen Editor: Merrit, Jane
L.; Halvorson, Bonnie; Hanson, Robin M. Title Article/Chapter ...
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[CITATION] More Than Simply Treatment What A Conservator Can Tell You About An Object

RM Hanson - CRM-WASHINGTON-, 1999 - NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
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Adverse selection in group insurance: The virtues of failing to represent voters

[PDF] from psu.edu
Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - Economics of Governance, 2005 - Springer
Compared with non-union workers, union workers take more of their compensation in the
form of insurance. This may be because unions choose democratically, and democratic
choice mitigates adverse selection in group insurance. Relative to individually-purchased ...
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Market-Based Approaches to Managing Science Return from Planetary Missions

[PDF] from nasa.gov
RR Wessen, D Porter… - 1996 - trs-new.jpl.nasa.gov
Abstract: The return of science is the fundamental objective of any planetary mission.
However, which constellation of science observations constitute the best return of science is
hard to evaluate. Past approaches toward planning science observations have been ...
Cited by 1 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 4 versions

[PDF] Fear of Death and Muddled Thinking–It Is So Much Worse Than You Think

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - 2005 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract Humans clearly have trouble thinking about death. This trouble is often used to
explain behavior like delay in writing wills or buying life insurance, or interest in odd medical
and religious beliefs. But the problem is far worse than most people imagine. Fear of ...
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[CITATION] Forthcoming.“Are Disagreements Honest?”

T Cowen… - Journal of Economic Methodology
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[CITATION] On the options available in the design of in-plant materials supply systems

R Hanson - 2009 - publications.lib.chalmers.se
... Författare och institution: Robin Hanson (Institutionen för teknikens ekonomi och organisation,
Logistik och transport). Serie: Licentiate thesis, report - Department of Technology of Management
and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, ISSN 1654-9732; nr 1654-9732. ...
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[PS] What If Convicts, Not Victims, Hired Private Law Enforcers?

[PS] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - 1993 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract The possibility of replacing current monopoly public law enforcers with competing
private enforcers has been explored by Becker and Stigler, who suggest offering fixed
bounties per conviction, and David Friedman, who suggests that the law declare functions ...
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Determining the efficacy of cyclododecane as a barrier for a reduction bleaching treatment of a silk embroidered linen napkin

Y Larochette, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty …, 2004 - bcin.ca
Abstract: This article outlines the application of cyclododecane as a barrier for silk
embroidery during the reduction bleaching treatment of an 18 th century linen napkin. The
silk embroidery is sensitive to the bleaching process and could be harmed if exposed to ...
Cached

Form and function: fifties furniture becomes fine art

CB Maguire, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty Group … - bcin.ca
In the 1960s the Nelson-Atkins Museum of Art in Kansas City, Missouri, purchased chairs
designed by Harry Bertoia from Knoll Associated Ltd., for new education and classroom
spaces. These chairs remained in use until 2002. At the same time several George Nelson ...
Cached

[PDF] On voter incentives to become informed

[PDF] from psu.edu
R Hanson - California Institute of Technology Social Science …, 1996 - Citeseer
Abstract Before an election, two candidates choose policies which are lotteries over
electionday distributive positions. I find conditions under which there exist mixed-strategy
probabilistic-voting equilibria which are independent, treating voter groups independently.
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[PDF] Causes of Confidence in Conflict

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - Relation, 2006 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract In a simple model of conflict, two agents fight over a fixed prize, and how hard they
fight depends on what they believe about their abilities. To this model I add “preagents,”
representing parents, leaders, or natural selection, who choose each agent's confidence ...
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[PDF] When Do Extraordinary Claims Give Extraordinary Evidence?

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - 2007 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. But on uninteresting topics,
surprising claims usually are surprising evidence; we rarely make claims without sufficient
evidence. On interesting topics, however, we can have interests in exaggerating or ...
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" If the Lord

RA Hanson - Great Plains Quarterly, 2010 - eric.ed.gov
EJ908935 - "If the Lord.
Cached

The role of historic documentation in a contemporary textile project

RM Hanson, K MacKay, B Szuhay… - The Textile Specialty Group …, 2005 - bcin.ca
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Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Hanson, Robin M. Editor: MacKay,
Kathleen; Szuhay, Beth; Thompson, Joel Title Article/Chapter ...
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Conservation Through Investigation: Uncovering the Story of a Japanese Ceremonial Doll

L Kaplan, JL Merrit, B Halvorson… - … , Volume 12: A Joint Session with … - bcin.ca
Close Document Image Close Document Printer Image Print This Document! Conservation
Information Network (BCIN). Author: Kaplan, Lara Editor: Merrit, Jane L.; Halvorson, Bonnie;
Hanson, Robin M. Title Article/Chapter: "Conservation ...
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[PS] TOWARD HYPERTEXT PUBLISHING

[PS] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - hanson.gmu.edu
ABSTRACT Hypertext publishing, the integration of a large body (perhaps billions) of public
writings into a unified hypertext environment, will require the simultaneous solution of
problems involving very wide database distribution, royalties, freedom of speech, and ...
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[PDF] Location Discrimination in Circular City, Torus Town, and Beyond

[PDF] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - 2008 - hanson.gmu.edu
Abstract Salop's “Circular City” model of spatial competition is generalized to higher
dimensions, and to “transportation” costs which are a power of distance. Assuming free
entry, mill pricing is compared to location-based price discrimination. For dimensions ...
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[BOOK] Doctor Tandy's First Guide To Life Extension And Transhumanity

[PDF] from brownwalker.com
C Tandy, N Bostrom, W Faloon, R Hanson… - 2001 - books.google.com
Dr. Tandy and nine additional contributors introduce the reader to the world of the twentyfirst
century and beyond. Topics include: Dietary Supplements And Your Health
Nanotechnology, Nanomedicine, And Health ExtensionTranshumanism, Transmortality, ...
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by Dan Klein

Full text - MIT Libraries
L Boland, D Bruce, K Button, B Caplan… - Scholarly Comments on …, 2008 - socionet.ru
I am grateful to the co-editors Bruce Benson, Fred Foldvary, George Selgin, and Larry White
and the managing editor Kevin Rollins for all their fine work, to Warren Gibson for many
reports on math-intensive papers, to donors for support, and to readers for their interest ...
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Plastics in twentieth-century costume collections

R Walker, M Ordonez, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty …, 2004 - bcin.ca
Abstract: Twentieth-century costume collections often have jewelry, beads, sequins, buttons,
buckles, combs, fans, handbags, eyeglass frames, and dolls made of plastic. Molded from a
solid material, plastic contains one or more organic polymeric substances of large ...
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[HTML] World Peace, Thanks To Old Men?

[HTML] from gmu.edu
R Hanson - hanson.gmu.edu
Will we have more or fewer deadly wars in the new few decades? Until recently it has been very
hard to say much about what makes wars more more frequent or deadly. It doesn't seem to have
much to do with levels or changes in population density, whether the economy is ...
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The burned tapestries of the Cathedral Church of St. John the Divine: what can we learn from the ashes?

M Eidelheit, S De Vanna, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty … - bcin.ca
In December 2001 two tapestries from a set of 12 were severely burned during a five-alarm
fire at the Cathedra Church of St. John the Divine in New York City. After salvaging the
remains and spraying off the dirt and debris, the Cathedral's Textile Conservation Lab ...
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Textile Specialty Group postprints: volume 8

R Hanson - 1999 - bcin.ca
For over twenty years, objects that have been treated in textile conservation laboratory at the
National Park Service, Division of Conservation, at Harpers Ferry Center (HFC) in Harpers
Ferry, West Virginia, have routinely been sampled for fiber identification. While these ...
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[CITATION] ECONOMICS OF THE SINGULARITY-Humans could find themselves out of work if machines of merely human intellect could be made cheap enough.

Full text - MIT Libraries
R Hanson - IEEE Spectrum, 2010
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Catch the wave: a flexible new option for quilt display

D Windsor, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty …, 2004 - bcin.ca
Abstract: A curatorial decision to display quilts away from the wall in a non-traditional way
influenced a design and conservation team to consider a new three-dimensional approach
for mounting textiles. The modular quilt mounts described in this article are in the ...
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For the public eye: the excavation and return of original upholstery chosen by Mrs. Anna Ramsey for a reception room suite of furnishings from 1872

A Frisina, J Randolph, K MacKay… - The Textiles Specialty Group …, 2004 - bcin.ca
Abstract: The Minnesota home of Governor Alexander Ramsey was built as a family
dwelling, a representation of civic pride, and a place for public life. The home functioned as
a site for fundraising, entertaining, business meetings, and as a place for raising a family. ...
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The National Cemetery: Race and sectional reconciliation in a contested landscape

RA Hanson - 2009 - gradworks.umi.com
UMI, ProQuest ® Dissertations & Theses. The world's most comprehensive collection
of dissertations and theses. Learn more... ProQuest, The National Cemetery: Race
and sectional reconciliation in a contested landscape. by ...
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Performance impact of options for routing and delivery initiation in tugger train delivery systems

K Eriksson… - Proceedings of The Swedish …, 2008 - publications.lib.chalmers.se
The use of lean production principles is growing and companies are increasingly focusing
on small and frequent deliveries. This is often achieved through use of tugger trains carrying
several part numbers, each of a relatively small quantity. To achieve time efficiency, it is ...
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[BOOK] Voters can have strong incentives to become informed, or to be strategically ignorant

[PDF] from psu.edu
R Hanson… - 1996 - Citeseer
Abstract The instrumental incentives of sel sh voters to become politically informed seem to
be diluted by low voter probabilities of being pivotal. This incentive dilution does not apply,
however, to visible voter e orts made before candidates nalize their policy positions. Also, ...
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Adventures in bleaching

D Bede, RM Hanson, J Randolph… - The Textile Specialty Group … - bcin.ca
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Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Bede, Deborah Editor: Hanson,
Robin M.; Randolph, Julie; Halvorson, Bonnie Title Article/Chapter ...
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[CITATION] CHRISTOF KOCH is a professor of cognitive and behavioral biology at Caltech.

R HANSON… - ieeexplore.ieee.org
GIULIO TONONI is a professor of psychiatry at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. In “Can
Machines Be Conscious?”[p. 54], the two neuroscientists discuss how to assess synthetic
consciousness. Koch became interested in the physical basis of consciousness while ...

Textile Fragments Associated with Flaked Stone Symbols from the Maya Site of Altun Ha, Belize

JJ Plitnikas, JL Merrit, B Halvorson… - … , Volume 12: A Joint Session with … - bcin.ca
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Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Plitnikas, Jill J. Editor: Merrit, Jane
L.; Halvorson, Bonnie; Hanson, Robin M. Title Article/Chapter ...
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Severely Degraded Textiles on Archaeological Artifacts at the Agora Excavations in Athens, Greece

J Unruh, JL Merrit, B Halvorson… - … Session, Volume 12: A Joint Session … - bcin.ca
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Conservation Information Network (BCIN). Author: Unruh, Julie Editor: Merrit, Jane
L.; Halvorson, Bonnie; Hanson, Robin M. Title Article/Chapter: "Severely ...
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[PDF] Warning Labels as Cheap Talk: Why Regulators Ban Products

[PDF] from hgh-energizer.com
R Hanson - 1998 - hgh-energizer.com
Abstract The most frequently mentioned explanation for product bans is that regulators know
more about product quality than consumers. A problem with this explanation, however, is
that such regulators should prefer to just communicate the information implicit in their ban, ...
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A comparison of kitting and continuous supply in in-plant materials supply

R Hanson… - 2012 - Taylor & Francis
Abstract In the context of in-plant materials supply, the materials feeding principle of kitting is
often discussed as an alternative to the more common continuous supply (also known as
line stocking). However, there are few detailed studies describing the relative effects of ...
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[PDF] The Rapacious Hardscrapple Frontier Folk of Year Million

[PDF] from psu.edu
R Hanson - 2008 - Citeseer
The future is not the realization of our hopes and dreams, a warning to mend our ways, an
adventure to inspire us, nor a romance to touch our hearts. The future is just another place in
spacetime. Its residents, like us, find their world mundane and morally ambiguous relative ...
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Conservation of a Military Tunic including the Use of Guide Threads for Positioning Repairs

[HTML] from conservation-us.org
J Vuori… - Journal of the American Institute for Conservation, 2000 - JSTOR
A 19th-century military tunic from the Lundy's Lane Historical Museum collection in Niagara
Falls, Ontario, Canada, was treated in the textile conservation laboratory of the Canadian
Conservation Institute (CCI). The tunic's severely damaged condition prevented it from ...
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