J Sachs, A Tornell… - 1996 - nber.org
In this paper we examine closely the financial events following the Mexican peso
devaluation to uncover new lessons about the nature of financial crises. We explore the
question of why, during 1995, some emerging markets were hit by financial crises while ...
A Tornell… - American Economic Review, 1999 - JSTOR
We analyze an economy that lacks a strong legal-political institutional infrastructure and is
populated by multiple powerful groups. Powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal
process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock. In equilibrium, ...
M Schneider… - The Review of Economic …, 2004 - restud.oxfordjournals.org
Abstract This paper provides a model of boom-bust episodes in middle-income countries. It
is based on sectoral differences in corporate finance: the nontradables sector is special in
that it faces a contract enforceability problem and enjoys bailout guarantees. As a result, ...
J Sachs, A Tornell… - 1995 - nber.org
In the first quarter of 1995 Mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic.
Foreign investors fled Mexico despite very high interest rates on Mexican securities, an
undervalued currency, and financial indicators that pointed to long-term solvency. The ...
A Tornell… - Journal of Political Economy, 1992 - JSTOR
We analyze a differential game in which all interest groups have access to a common capital
stock. We show that the introduction of a technology that has inferior productivity but enjoys
private access may ameliorate the tragedy of the commons. We use this model to analyze ...
PR Lane… - Journal of Economic Growth, 1996 - Springer
Why is it that resource-rich countries tend to have lower growth rates than resource-poor
countries? And why is it that many countries that enjoy terms-of-trade windfalls end up with
lower growth rates? To explain these puzzles, we extend the neoclassical growth model ...
J Sachs, A Tornell… - Journal of international economics, 1996 - Elsevier
We argue that allowing for the possibility of a self-fulfilling panic helps to understand several
features of the recent Mexican crisis. Self-fulfilling expectations became decisive in
generating a panic only after the government ran down gross reserves and ran up short- ...
A Tornell… - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2000 - Elsevier
Conventional wisdom holds that fixed rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible
rates. In this paper we show that this wisdom need not hold in a standard model in which
fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority. The claim that ...
A Tornell - 1999 - nber.org
The cross-country variation in the severity of the crisis was largely determined by three
fundamentals: the strength of the banking system, the real appreciation, and the
international liquidity of the country. We also find that the rule that links fundamentals to ...
R Ranciere, A Tornell… - 2005 - nber.org
In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial
crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We
measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a ...
A Tornell… - 2002 - nber.org
In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically
observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle'that has been
observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized ...
A Tornell… - Journal of International Economics, 1998 - Elsevier
A puzzling feature of temporary terms of trade booms is that some countries have responded
to such windfalls by running current account deficits. Furthermore, those countries that ran
current account deficits failed to attain greater post-boom growth rates, indicating the ...
A Tornell, F Westermann… - 2004 - nber.org
There is no agreement regarding the growth-enhancing effects of financial liberalization,
mainly because it is associated with risky international bank flows, lending booms, and
crises. In this paper we make the case for liberalization despite the occurrence of crises. ...
A Krueger… - 1999 - nber.org
In this paper we analyze the evolution of the Mexican economy between 1995 and 1998.
The remarkable quick recovery seen in aggregate activity has not been uniform across the
economy. The tradable sector has grown strongly, while the non-tradable sector has ...
A Tornell - Journal of Economic Growth, 1997 - Springer
This article introduces endogenous institutional changeinto a neoclassical growth model.
For some parameter values, all Markov perfect equilibria involve a shift from common
propertyto private property followed by a shift back to common property. Even in the ...
PO Gourinchas… - Journal of International Economics, 2004 - Elsevier
We propose a new explanation for the foreign exchange forward-premium and delayed-
overshooting puzzles. We show that both puzzles arise from a systematic distortion in
investors' beliefs about the interest rate process. Accordingly, the forward premium is ...
R Ranciere, A Tornell… - 2003 - nber.org
We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone
economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP
growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial ...
[CITATION] The voracity effect
P Lane… - American Economic Review, 1999
A Tornell - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991 - JSTOR
Protectionist trade policies have long been advocated as second best instruments to
achieve certain national objectives in situations where there is a market imperfection. In
essence, protection provides time and resources for firms to undertake cost-reducing ...
R Ranciere, A Tornell… - Journal of Banking & Finance, 2006 - Elsevier
We present a new empirical decomposition of the effects of financial liberalization on
economic growth and on the incidence of crises. Our empirical estimates show that the direct
effect of financial liberalization on growth by far outweighs the indirect effect via a higher ...
A Tornell - 1998 - nber.org
We present a model of endogenous institutional change that rationalizes reforms that have
taken place in the context of economic crisis and drastic political change. Most of the reforms
have been initiated by powerholders, even though they have ended worse off relative to ...
A Tornell… - MIT Press Books, 2005 - ideas.repec.org
The volatility that has hit many middle-income countries (MICs) after liberalizing their
financial markets has prompted critics to call for new policies to stabilize these boom-bust
cycles. But, as Aaron Tornell and Frank Westermann point out in this book, over the last ...
A Tornell… - Journal of International Economics, 1998 - Elsevier
The conventional wisdom is that exchange rate-based stabilizations induce more fiscal
discipline than money-based programs. The Latin American experience does not support
this view. Among the major stabilization programs implemented since 1960, the mean ...
A Tornell, F Westermann… - Brookings Papers on Economic …, 2003 - JSTOR
BY NOW THERE iS widespread agreement that trade liberalization enhances growth. No
such agreement exists, however, on the growthenhancing effects of financial liberalization,
in large part because it is associated with risky capital flows, lending booms, and crises. ...
A Tornell… - 1997 - nber.org
Typically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models predict that Mexico's gains from
NAFTA will be small. This is because Mexico has already opened the manufacturing sector
of its economy, and US and Canadian import tariffs are already very low. However, if ...
A Tornell… - 2003 - nber.org
In this paper we document three credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income
countries that can help explain the boom-bust cycles as well as other macroeconomic
patterns observed at higher frequencies across these countries. These imperfections are: ...
A Tornell - Journal of Development Economics, 1990 - Elsevier
Abstract In the recent past several developing countries have failed to achieve significant
real capital investment despite episodes of large capital inflows. Although there are real
projects with seemingly high returns, investors prefer to wait for the correct time to invest. ...
A Tornell, F Westermann… - 2004 - nber.org
Mexico, a prominent liberalizer, failed to attain stellar gross domestic product (GDP) growth
in the 1990s, and since 2001 its GDP and exports have stagnated. In this paper we argue
that the lack of spectacular growth in Mexico cannot be blamed on either the North ...
A Tornell… - 2002 - nber.org
Credit market conditions play a key role in propagating shocks in middle income countries
(MICs). In particular, shocks to the spread between domestic and international interest rates
have a strong effect on GDP, and an even stronger effect on domestic credit. This strong ...
A Tornell… - European Economic Review, 1995 - Elsevier
The conventional wisdom claims that fixed exchange rates provide more fiscal discipline
than do flexible rates, but the recent experience in Europe, the record of Sub-Saharan
countries in the 1980s and the history of stabilization attempts in Latin America cast ...
A Tornell - 1995 - nber.org
In 1979, one of the oil boom years, President L6pez Portillo announced Mexico's intention to
adhere to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). In 1980, having engaged in
consultations with major interest groups, he then reversed this decision. Under President ...
A Tornell - 1999 - nber.org
In the first part of this paper we argue that three reforms must be implemented if privatization
is to increase efficiency. First, establishing unitary control rights within the firm. Second,
making privatized firms face hard budget constraints. Third, establishing a non-corruptible ...
PR Lane… - Harvard Institute of Economic Research …, 1995 - ideas.repec.org
No abstract is available for this item. ... To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three options: 1. Check below under "Related
research" whether another version of this item is available online. 2. Check on the ...
K Hong… - Journal of Development Economics, 2005 - Elsevier
Using a comprehensive data set of over 100 developing countries, this paper examines how
economies recover from a currency crisis. Some of the regularities found are listed below.
First, it takes less than 3 years for the GDP growth rate to fully recover its tranquil-period ...
A Tornell… - 1999 - nber.org
In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration of the
current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater post-boom
growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process is critical in ...
A Tornell, F Westermann… - 2004 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: Mexico, a prominent liberalizer, failed to attain stellar gross domestic product
(GDP) growth in the 1990s, and since 2001 its GDP and exports have stagnated. In this
paper we argue that the lack of spectacular growth in Mexico cannot be blamed on either ...
We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting
puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate
forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased ...
PR Lane… - Journal of Development Economics, 1998 - Elsevier
We document a striking empirical regularity: Latin American savings rates are, as a rule,
substantially less procyclical than for OECD countries and in some cases are actually
countercyclical. We build a non-representative agent intertemporal macroeconomic model ...
A Tornell… - 1995 - nber.org
We present a standard intertemporal model in which fiscal policy is determined by an
optimizing but non-benevolent fiscal authority. If the fiscal authority is impatient, a money-
based stabilization provides more fiscal discipline and higher welfare for the ...
M Schneider… - Manuscript, UCLA, 2001 - acrobatplanet.com
Abstract In the recent past middle income countries have experienced a new type Oboom-
bust cycle., The build-up phase is characterized by a real exchange rate appreciation and a
lending boom during which the banking system finances rapid growth in the nontradable ( ...
Interest rate expectations are essential for exchange rate determination. Using a unique
Survey data set on interest rate forecasts from 1986 to 1995 for G7 countries, we find that
interest rate shocks were significantly more persistent in sample than expected by the ...
[CITATION] Lending Booms and Asset Price Inflation
M Schneider… - Harvard University. Mimeographed (January), 1999
[CITATION] RLending Booms and Speculative Crises
M Schneider… - manuscript, University of California at Los Angeles, 2000
A Tornell - 1997 - nber.org
During the seventies and eighties the US steel industry received trade protection. However,
these rents were not used to improve competitiveness. Instead, they were reflected in higher
wages and a greater share of profits invested in sectors not related to steel. Moreover, the ...
R Ranciere, A Tornell… - Economic Policy, 2010 - Wiley Online Library
Currency mismatch is a vehicle that exposes the economy to systemic risk, but it is also an
engine of growth. We analyse this dual role at the macro and the micro levels. At the
aggregate level, we construct a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector ...
A Tornell - 2001 - nber.org
Imagine a money manager with a crystal ball that predicts the future. This crystal ball tells the
manager that a currency crisis will erupt in six months and that it will spread across
emerging markets. However, it does not tell the manager anything else. Can he or she use ...
A Tornell - Economics Letters, 1999 - Elsevier
Several developing countries have frequently responded to favorable shocks by increasing
government spending more than proportionally and by investing in inefficient capital
projects. As a result, transitory windfalls have frequently lead to a contemporaneous ...
[CITATION] Bailout Guarantees, Balance Sheet Effects and Financial Crises
M Scheneider… - Review of Economic Studies, 2004
A Tornell - 2000 - nber.org
We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well
known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility,
and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation ...
[CITATION] The Political Economy of Mexico's Entry Into NAFTA
G Esquivel… - Ito, T. and Ann Krueger eds., The Annual East Asian …, 1998
[CITATION] Balance Sheet Effects
M Schneider… - Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises, 2004
[CITATION] Financial crises in emerging markets: The lessons from 1995
S Jeffrey, A Tornell… - Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1996
A Tornell, F Westermann… - NBER working paper, 2004 - cesifo-group.de
Abstract There is no agreement regarding the growth-enhancing effects of financial
liberalization, mainly because it is associated with risky international bank flows, lending
booms, and crises. In this paper we make the case for liberalization despite the ...
[CITATION] Economic crises and reform in Mexico
A Tornell… - Haber (ed.), 2002
A Tornell - International Trade and Trade Policy, MIT Press: …, 1991 - books.google.com
Recently, there has been an emergence of arguments justifying the implementation of
industrial policies. According to these arguments, trade protection or investment subsidies
provide domestic firms with the time and resources to undertake cost-reducing ...
[CITATION] The Role of Bank Lending in Recovering From Crises: Mexico 1995-1998
A Krueger… - NBER working paper, 1999
[CITATION] Are windfalls a curse? A non-representative agent model of the current account and fiscal policy
T Aaron… - NBER Working Paper Series, 1994
[CITATION] Systemic crises and growth
R Romain, A Tornell… - NBER Working paper, 2005
[CITATION] The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?
A Tornell… - Economic Policy, 1995
[CITATION] Fiscal policy and the choice of exchange rate regime
A Tornell… - Inter-American Development Bank working paper …, 1994
[CITATION] Exchange Rate-Based and Money-Based Stabilization with Endogenous Fiscal Policy
A Tornell… - NBER Working Paper, 1995
[CITATION] Excess volatility of asset prices with H∞ forecasts
A Tornell - Manuscript. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard …, 1998
[CITATION] Post-crisis development of Asia
K Hong… - Korea Development Institute. Mimeograph, 1999
A Velasco… - Economics & Politics, 1991 - Wiley Online Library
Page 1. ECONOMICS AND POLITICS Volume 3 November 1991 0954-1985 No. 3
WAGES, PROFITS AND CAPITAL FLIGHT* ANDR~S VELASCO AND h R 6 N TORNELL
We model capital flight as the outcome of a noncooperative ...
P Lane… - Journal of Development Economics, 1998 - 万方数据资源系统
... 相关检索词. why, 语用功能. 话语标记语, Why Arent Latin American Saving Rates Procyclical.
通过DOI定位原文. DOI:, 10.1016/S0304-3878(98)00082-0. 作者 :, Philip Lane;Aaron Tornell.
期刊 :, Journal of Development Economics. 年,卷(期) :, 1998, (57). 分类号 :, 关键词 :, 正文语种 ...
[CITATION] FRANK WESTERMANN. 2005.“Systemic Crises and Growth,”
R Ranciere… - NBER Working Paper
M Li… - Manuscript, Department of Economics, UCLA, 2008 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: We show that robustness against model misspecification can account for the
forward premium puzzle through a combination of an exchange rate model and a
robustness model under structured uncertainty. In equilibrium, optimizing agents, who ...
[CITATION] Real vs. Financial Investment: Towards an Explanation of'Short-Termism
A Tornell - Columbia University, Department of Economics, New …, 1989
[CITATION] Decomposing the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Crises vs
R Romain, A Tornell… - Growth, 2006
[CITATION] Real versus Financial Capital: Toward and Explanation Short-Termism
A Tornell - Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming, 1990
A Tornell, A Velasco… - 1990 - econ.as.nyu.edu
Abstract We present a-model where capital flight occurs gradually, even though there are no
adjustment costs and technolgies are linear. Capital flight is the outcome of a distributive
conflict among interest groups. The peculiarity is that each group can appropriate any ...
[CITATION] The positive link between financial liberalization growth and crises
L Martinez, A Tornell… - NBER Working Paper, 2004
[CITATION] The real story
J Sachs, A Tornell… - International Economy, 1995
R Ranciere… - CEGE Conference, 2010 - acrobatplanet.com
Abstract We address the questions of why excessive risk-takingarises in finacially liberalized
economies, and whether growth, production efficiency and welfare can be higher in such
crisis prone economies. We do so by analyzing the relationship between financial fragility ...
[CITATION] Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation
R Romain, A Tornell… - 2003 - NBER WP10073
[CITATION] The Collapse of the Peso: What Have We Learned?
J Sachs, A Tornell… - 1995 - Working Paper Series, The Center …
J Wynne, G Hansen, T Kehoe, L Ohanian, J Ostroy… - 2002 - Citeseer
Abstract I present a small open economy model to analyze the role of firms in the
macroeconomic dynamics of the business cycle. With asymmetric information, it takes time
for good firms to build up financial reputation and net worth. Over time firms pay lower ...
[CITATION] Exchange rates under robustness: The forward premium puzzle and momentum
M Li… - 2008 - Mimeo
[CITATION] Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?
A Tornell… - 1990 - New York University, Faculty of Arts …
[CITATION] Lending Booms, Asset Price Inflation and Soft Landings
M Schneider… - Rochester, United States: University of Rochester, …, 1999
[CITATION] Common Fundamentals in the Asian Currency Crisis
A Tornell - unpublished, available at http://www. economics. …, 1998
[CITATION] Capital Controls, Welfare, and Reputation
A Tornell - 1988 - mimeo, Columbia University
[CITATION] Frank Westermann, and Lorenza Martinez, 2003,“
A Tornell - Liberalization, Growth and Financial Crises,” UCLA …
[CITATION] «Nafta and Mexico Less Than Stellar Performance»
T Aaron, W Frank… - NBER Working Paper, 2004
[CITATION] Accumulation and Voracity in Discrete Time
A Tornell - 1997 - Mimeo, Harvard University
[CITATION] Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises
L Martinez, F Westermann… - Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2003
[CITATION] The Credit Channel and Currency Mismatch in Middle Income Countries
A Tornell… - NBER, Working Paper, 2002
[CITATION] The Role of Bank Restructuring in Recovering From Crises: Mexico 1995-1998
A KRUGER… - NBER Working Paper Series, 1999
A Tornell… - El Trimestre Económico, 1998 - ideas.repec.org
In this paper, we derive three lessons from Mexico's experience. First, deep reforms like trade
liberalization are not likely to happen by government decree. Instead, they usually come about
when the unanimous blocking of reform by powerful elites breaks down. In the case of Mexico ...
R Ranciere… - 2011 - papers.ssrn.com
Abstract: This paper argues that the US financial crisis is a new type of crisis: a" financial
black hole." Financial black holes are characterized by the breaking-up of credit market
discipline and the large-scale financing of negative NPV projects. In a theoretical model, ...
[CITATION] qWhy Arenpt Latin American Savings Rates Procyclical
P Lane… - Journal of Development Economics, 1998
A Tornell - Conference on Currency Crises Prevention, 2001 - sapir.tau.ac.il
The old balance of payments crises, in which government deficits took center stage, have
been replaced by new twin currency and banking crises, in which bank lending has taken
center stage. In this paper we present a conceptual framework that can help us anЛ alyze ...
[CITATION] forthcoming,“Currency Mismatch, Financial Crises and Growth: Theory and Evidence,”
R Rancière, A Tornell… - IMF Working Paper (Washington: …
A Tornell - UCLA Economics Online Papers, 2003 - Citeseer
Abstract Many asset pricing anomalies imply the existence of time-varying predictable
excess returns, as well as short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction to news. The
presence of short-sales constraints or of missperception has been often invoked to explain ...
[CITATION] Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Eastern Europe, forthcoming
R Romain, T Aaron… - Economic Policy, 2009
[CITATION] Financial and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Balance Sheet Effects
A Tornell - 2000 - mimeo, UCLA and NBER
[CITATION] Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries
T Aaron… - 2003 - CESifo Working Paper Series 960, …
[CITATION] RCommon Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises, 1999
A Tornell - NBER Working Paper
[CITATION] The Role of Bank Restructuring in Recovering from Crises: Mexico 1995-98
K Anne… - NBER Working Paper, 1999
[CITATION] Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Evidence from Mexico and the Developing World
A Tornell, F Westermann… - Unpublished paper, 2003
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