American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Articles The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks LutzKilianU MI 871 909 Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the United States, and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance. This paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate: What are energy price shocks and where do they come from? How responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices? How do consumer’s expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks? How do energy price shocks affect U.S. real output, inflation, and stock prices? Why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions? Why has there been a surge in the price of oil in recent years? Why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far? Have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and, if so, why? As the paper demonstrates, it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets when answering these questions. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.871 10.1257/jel.46.4.871 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Articles Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence Alan S.BlinderPrinceton U MichaelEhrmannEuropean Central Bank MarcelFratzscherEuropean Central Bank JakobDe HaanU Groningen and CESifo David-JanJansenDe Nederlandsche Bank 910 45 Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank’s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks’ macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.910 10.1257/jel.46.4.910 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Articles A Review of Gregory Clark's A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World Robert C.AllenNuffield College, Oxford U 946 73 A Farewell to Alms advances striking claims about the economic history of the world. These include (1) the preindustrial world was in a Malthusian preventive check equilibrium, (2) living standards were unchanging and above subsistence for the last 100,000 years, (3) bad institutions were not the cause of economic backwardness, (4) successful economic growth was due to the spread of "middle class" values from the elite to the rest of society for "biological" reasons, (5) workers were the big gainers in the British Industrial Revolution, and (6) the absence of middle class values, for biological reasons, explains why most of the world is poor. The empirical support for these claims is examined, and all are questionable. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.946 10.1257/jel.46.4.946 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Articles Is the Obesity Epidemic a Public Health Problem? A Review of Zoltan J. Acs and Alan Lyles's Obesity, Business and Public Policy Tomas J.PhilipsonU Chicago Richard A.PosnerU Chicago 974 82 We review the recent but growing economic literature on the worldwide growth of obesity, relating the review to a recent anthology of articles—Obesity, Business and Public Policy. We discuss the competing explanations for the growth of obesity as well as the role of governments in attempting to limit it. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.974 10.1257/jel.46.4.974 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Articles A Review of Tito Boeri, Lans Bovenberg, Benoît Coeuré, and Andrew Roberts's Dealing with the New Giants and Peter J. Orszag, Mark Iwry, and William G. Gale's Aging Gracefully Olivia S.MitchellU PA 983 88 Global aging will impose greater economic demands on the young and may entail dramatic consumption shortfalls for the old. Against this gloomy backdrop, many analysts hail the world’s funded pension systems as a means to protect future retirement security. The monographs reviewed ask how funded pension plans might be restructured to better meet the policy challenges of global aging. Both show that the pension institution must be reformulated to better provide for both economic growth and demographic aging. Questions remain regarding how retirement policy can better integrate intergenerational adequacy and incentive considerations. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.983 10.1257/jel.46.4.983 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Book Reviews Book Reviews 989 1041 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.989 10.1257/jel.46.4.989 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Journal Article Front Matter 865 870 Front matter includes Table of Contents. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.865 10.1257/jel.46.4.865 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Back Matter Annotated Listing of New Books 1042 1140 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.1042 10.1257/jel.46.4.1042 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Back Matter JEL Classification System 1141 1154 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.1141 10.1257/jel.46.4.1141 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Back Matter Doctoral Dissertations in Economics One-Hundred-Fifth Annual List 1155 1182 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.1155 10.1257/jel.46.4.1155 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Back Matter General Index 1183 1189 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.1183 10.1257/jel.46.4.1183 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0022-8282 Journal of Economic Literature http://www.aeaweb.org/journal.html 46 4 December 2008 http://www.aeaweb.org/issue.php?journal=JEL&volume=46&issue=4 Back Matter Index of Authors of New Books 1190 1218 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.46.4.1190 10.1257/jel.46.4.1190