American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 35 Reflections on Economics at the Turn of the Millennium Alan B.KruegerJ. BradfordDe LongTimothyTaylor http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 726 The Worldwide Standard of Living since 1800 Richard A.Easterlin By many measures a revolution in living conditions is sweeping the world. Most people today are better fed, clothed, and house than their predecessors two centuries ago. They are healthier, live longer, and are better educated. Women's lives are less centered on reproduction, and political democracy has gained a foothold. Current international differences in a number of standard of living indicators are significantly correlated. Historically, however, these improvements often started at quite different times, suggesting that the determinants of change in different aspects of the standard of living are varied. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 2742 What the Change of System from Socialism to Capitalism Does and Does Not Mean JanosKornai http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 4360 Antitrust Policy: A Century of Economic and Legal Thinking William E.KovacicCarlShapiro http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 6182 American Government Finance in the Long Run: 1790 to 1990 John JosephWallis Government in America has gone through three distinct fiscal systems in the last two hundred years. Each system utilized a dominant revenue source, and had a distinctly active level of government. The changing structure of government by level seems to be related to changing revenue structures. When new taxes become important, the relative importance of each level of government changes. On the other hand, growth in the overall size of government is not directly related to the structure of revenues or the distribution of activity by level of government. Government growth is the result of long term commitments to provide education, transportation, social welfare services, old age security, and military forces. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 8394 The Triumph of Monetarism? J. BradfordDe Long http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 95108 The Neoclassical Advent: American Economics at the Dawn of the 20th Century JosephPersky http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 109119 Teaching Economics in the 21st Century William E.Becker The desire to reverse a downward trend in the number of undergraduates majoring in economics is an impetus to advance the scholarship of teaching economics as we enter the 21st century. This article offers suggestions for changing the concepts taught and the applications used in college and university economics courses within the United States. It provides practical methods to improve the way economics is taught. The assessment of students and the evaluation of pedagogical practices are also addressed. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 121132 New Millennium Economics: How Did It Get This Way, and What Way Is It? DavidColander This paper is a discussion of the changes in the economics profession that occurred (or at least are suggested will occur) between 2000 and 2050. Structural changes include the growth of virtual universities, the movement of the center of economics out of the U.S. and the shrinking of traditional graduate economics programs as we know them today, and their replacement by public policy and specialty programs. Changes in content include an increase in simulation work, experimental work, and the replacement of a neoclassical vision with a New Millennium vision based on a complexity foundation in which patterns develop spontaneously. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 133141 From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens Richard H.Thaler In responding to a request for predictions about the future of economics, I predict that Homo Economicus will evolve into Homo Sapiens, or, more simply put, economics will become more related to human behavior. My specific predictions are that Homo Economicus will start to lose IQ, will become a slower learner, will start interacting with other species, and that economists will start to study human cognition, human emotion, and will distinguish more clearly between normative and descriptive theories. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 143150 The Future of Microeconomic Theory BethAllen The question of what constitutes good economic theory is analyzed. Current good and bad aspects of its methodologies are discussed. Interdisciplinary work that goes beyond the social sciences is advocated. The future predictions are presented concerning research in game theory and the economics of information. Finally, the importance of technology and the need for microeconomists to understand it better are argued. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 151158 Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run Robert M.Solow http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 159168 Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century Robert E.LucasJr. This note describes a numerical simulation of a model of economic growth, a simplified version of Robert Tamura's (1996) model of world income dynamics, based on technology diffusion. The model makes predictions for trends in average world income growth and about the evolution of the relative income distribution that accord well with observation. The model is used to forecast the course of world income growth and income inequality over the century to come. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 169175 Can America Stay on Top? PaulKrugman http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 177186 How Far Will International Economic Integration Go? DaniRodrik This article speculates about the future of the world economy 100 years from now. It argues that the spread of markets is restricted by the reach of jurisdictional boundaries, and that national sovereignty imposes serious constraints on international economic integration. The political trilemma of the world economy is that international economic integration, the nation-state, and mass politics cannot co-exist. We have to pick two out of three. The article predicts that it will be the nation-state system that disappears, with global federalism taking its place. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 187198 Anti-Poverty Policy for Families in the Next Century: From Welfare to Work--and Worries David T.Ellwood This paper reveals that recent changes in social policy have included both sharp cutbacks in welfare for non-working families and dramatic increases in supports for low income working families. It explores the reasons for these changes, and documents how they have radically changed work incentives for some persons, notable single mothers. The result has been a large increase in work by low wage single parents. The paper concludes by examining several potential dangers of this new direction and explores the challenges that remain for the next century. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 199206 Environmental Problems and Policy: 2000-2050 Paul R.Portney The next 50 years will see more use of market-based tools for environmental protection. Regulatory authorities everywhere will require polluters to report emissions. Authority will leak away from national governments; some will be devolved to lower levels of government, but some will be lost to international bodies. Environmental conditions will continue to improve steadily in developed countries. The developing countries will be less fortunate; at least until rising incomes provide the impetus for stricter standards. Some losses will be irreversible, as with species that are extinguished. http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html American Economic Association Nashville, Tennessee 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives 14 1 Winter 2000 207214 Worker Protection Policies in the New Century Bernard E.Anderson http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/contents/Winter2000.html