American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Lessons from Past Productivity Booms Roger W.Ferguson William L.Wascher 3 28 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=1&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371286 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending Sydney C.Ludvigson 29 50 Despite the widespread attention given to surveys of consumer confidence, the mechanisms by which household attitudes influence the real economy are less well understood. This paper begins with an overview of how consumer confidence is measured and reported. It then evaluates the relationship between consumer attitudes and the real economy. The evidence suggests that popular survey measures contain some information about future aggregate consumer expenditure growth. However, much of that information is found in other economic and financial indicators, and the independent information provided by consumer confidence predicts a relatively modest amount of additional variation in future consumer spending. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371222 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence? JeffDominitz Charles F.Manski 51 66 Research on consumer confidence has mainly sought to evaluate the power of available data to predict economic outcomes. In contrast, this article considers how best to measure consumer confidence. We analyze the responses to eight questions that have appeared recently on the Michigan Survey of Consumers; four elicit expectations in the traditional qualitative manner and four use a newer "percent chance" format. Examination of the responses suggests three implications. It makes more sense to ask for expectations of events directly relevant to individual economic decisions than for predictions of general business conditions. Surveys should shift away from qualitative questions in favor of ones eliciting subjective probability judgments. While aggregating responses into an index of consumer confidence may provide simple summary statistics, results should also be presented on a question-by-question basis for different subgroups of the population. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=3&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371303 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Latin America's Growth and Equity Frustrations During Structural Reforms José AntonioOcampo 67 88 This paper argues that Latin America's market-oriented reforms, together with increased monetary and fiscal discipline, were successful in bringing down inflation, inducing export growth and diversification, and attracting foreign direct investment. Nonetheless, economic growth was frustratingly slow. Pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies generated, in turn, strong business cycles in the face of unstable access to international capital markets. Higher productivity in leading firms and sectors failed to spread throughout the economy and led to increasing productive sector dualism. Furthermore, despite the democratic dividend reflected in increased social spending and coverage of social services, weak economic performance and additional distributive tensions led to disappointing results in terms of employment generation and poverty reduction. Overcoming these frustrating outcomes would require counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies, open-economy productive development strategies and mainstreaming social objectives into economic policies. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=4&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371349 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Latin America since the 1990s: Rising from the Sickbed? ArminioFraga 89 106 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=5&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371204 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Prediction Markets JustinWolfers EricZitzewitz 107 126 We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate, and that they outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Carefully designed contracts can yield insight into the market's expectations about probabilities, means and medians, and also uncertainty about these parameters. Moreover, conditional markets can effectively reveal the market's beliefs about regression coefficients, although we still have the usual problem of disentangling correlation from causation. We discuss a number of market design issues and highlight domains in which prediction markets are most likely to be useful. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=6&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371321 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Historical Presidential Betting Markets Paul W.Rhode Koleman S.Strumpf 127 141 This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second, the market was fairly efficient, despite the limited information of participants and active attempts to manipulate the odds. Third, we argue political betting markets disappeared largely because of the rise of scientific polls and the increasing availability of other forms of gambling. Finally, we discuss lessons this experience provides for the present. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=7&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371277 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Making a Name: Women's Surnames at Marriage and Beyond ClaudiaGoldin MariaShim 143 160 This paper tracks the fraction of college graduate women who kept their surnames upon marriage and after childbirth and explores some of the correlates of surname retention. Data from the New York Times, Harvard College alumni books, and Massachusetts birth records are used. Surname retention at marriage greatly increased from 1975 to about 1985 although Massachusetts birth records and the Harvard data show a decrease in the fraction keeping their surnames beginning around the early 1990s. The observable characteristics of importance in surname retention are those revealing that the bride has already "made a name" for herself. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=8&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371268 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Manager-Investor Conflicts in Mutual Funds Paul G.Mahoney 161 182 Half of all of U.S. households own shares in one or more mutual funds, either directly or through personal or employer-sponsored retirement accounts. This article describes the structure and regulation of mutual funds and the resulting incentives facing those who make decisions for the funds. After providing some basic institutional details, it focuses on the cash flows from mutual fund investors to fund managers, brokers, and other third parties and the associated conflicts of interest. The article concludes with a summary of recent legal proceedings against mutual fund managers and brokers based on improper trading practices and regulatory proposals to curb those practices. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=9&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371231 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Asbestos and the Future of Mass Torts Michelle J.White 183 204 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=10&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371187 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article State Budget Deficit Dynamics and the California Debacle Steven M.Sheffrin 205 226 This paper analyzes the recent experience with state budget deficits in the United States, with an in-depth analysis of the California experience. Compared to prior recessions, states were slower to make adjustments in taxes and spending this time. The paper explores a variety of reasons for this difference including changes in the legal, political, and institutional environments, the unusual increase in capital gains revenue during the boom preceding the recession, and the inherent difficulties in forecasting revenues, particularly those derived from capital income. As the case study from California illustrates, states made long term commitments from temporary revenue sources and were required to make budgetary decisions in the face of very incomplete information about current and projected tax receipts. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=11&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371330 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Prospects in the Academic Labor Market for Economists Ronald G.Ehrenberg 227 238 This paper discussed what the academic labor market for economists is likely to look like in the years ahead. After tracing out trends in PhD production of new economists, including the increasing share of new PhDs who are foreign residents, it presents new evidence on the growing use of part-time and full-time non tenure-track faculty in U.S. economics departments, the growing salary differentials between economists employed at private and public doctoral universities, and how economists' salaries have changed relative to those of faculty in other disciplines. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=12&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371312 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Policy Watch: Trade Adjustment Assistance KatherineBaicker Marit M.Rehavi 239 255 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=13&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371196 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Retrospectives: How Joan Robinson and B. L. Hallward Named Monopsony Robert J.Thornton 257 261 The term "monopsony" was introduced by Joan Robinson in her 1932 classic The Economics of Imperfect Competition, although she gives credit to classics scholar B.L. Hallward of Cambridge for the actual coining of the term. Even though the term has become widely accepted by economists, its literal meaning is more idiosyncratic than simply "one buyer" of a commodity or service. In this paper I discuss the etymology of the term monopsony and suggest several other words that would seem to be more appropriate for describing this market phenomenon. http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=14&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371240 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Recommendations for Further Reading BernardSaffran 263 270 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=15&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371295 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Comments 271 276 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=16&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371259 American Economic Association Nashville, TN 0895-3309 Journal of Economic Perspectives http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/ 18 2 Spring 2004 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/issue_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&issue_date=Spring 2004 Journal Article Notes 277 280 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=JEP&volume=18&issue=2&article=17&issue_date=Spring 2004 10.1257/0895330041371213