Front Matter (pp. i-vii)
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Contents
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Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twenty-First Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: Editors' Introduction (page viii)
William R. Johnson and Jane E. Voros |
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Papers and Proceedings of the One Hundred Twenty-First Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association: Foreword (page ix)
Angus Deaton |
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Papers
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Richard T. Ely Lecture
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Immigration and Inequality (pp. 1-21)
David Card |
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US Immigration Issues
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The Demography of Mexican Migration to the United States (pp. 22-27)
Gordon H. Hanson and Craig McIntosh |
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Do Immigrants and Their Children Free Ride More Than Natives? (pp. 28-34)
Una Okonkwo Osili and Jia Xie |
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The Labor Supply of Immigrants in the United States: The Role of Changing Source Country Characteristics (pp. 35-40)
Mary Lopez and Fernando Antonio Lozano |
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Immigration and Poverty in the United States (pp. 41-44)
Steven Raphael and Eugene Smolensky |
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The Skill Content of Jobs and the Evolution of the Wage Structure
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This Job Is "Getting Old": Measuring Changes in Job Opportunities Using Occupational Age Structure (pp. 45-51)
David Autor and David Dorn |
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New Evidence on the Returns to Job Skills (pp. 52-57)
Katharine G. Abraham and James R. Spletzer |
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Job Polarization in Europe (pp. 58-63)
Maarten Goos, Alan Manning and Anna Salomons |
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Data Watch: Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts
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Implementation of a New Architecture for the US National Accounts (pp. 64-68)
Dale W. Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld |
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Perspectives on the New Architecture for the US National Accounts (pp. 69-73)
Michael J. Boskin |
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Integrated GDP-Productivity Accounts (pp. 74-79)
Michael J. Harper, Brent R. Moulton, Steven Rosenthal and David B. Wasshausen |
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The Integrated Financial and Real System of National Accounts for the United States: Does It Presage the Financial Crisis? (pp. 80-86)
Michael G. Palumbo and Jonathan A. Parker |
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Data Watch: Data Initiatives
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Expectations and Perceptions in Developing Countries: Their Measurement and Their Use (pp. 87-92)
Orazio P. Attanasio |
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Egalitarianism and Competitiveness (pp. 93-98)
Bjorn Bartling, Ernst Fehr, Michel Andre Marechal and Daniel Schunk |
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Are Two Cheap, Noisy Measures Better Than One Expensive, Accurate One? (pp. 99-103)
Martin Browning and Thomas Crossley |
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Health and Wealth
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Early Life Health and Cognitive Function in Old Age (pp. 104-09)
Anne Case and Christina Paxson |
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Life Expectancy and Old Age Savings (pp. 110-15)
Mariacristina De Nardi, Eric French and John Bailey Jones |
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Approaches to Estimating the Health State Dependence of the Utility Function (pp. 116-21)
Amy Finkelstein, Erzo F. P. Luttmer and Matthew J. Notowidigdo |
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The Economy and Health
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Why Are Recessions Good for Your Health? (pp. 122-27)
Douglas L. Miller, Marianne E. Page, Ann Huff Stevens and Mateusz Filipski |
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Child Benefits, Maternal Employment, and Children's Health: Evidence from Canadian Child Benefit Expansions (pp. 128-32)
Kevin Milligan and Mark Stabile |
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Average Earnings and Long-Term Mortality: Evidence from Administrative Data (pp. 133-38)
Daniel Sullivan and Till von Wachter |
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Human Capital Acquisition and Entrepreneurship
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Time-Use Patterns and Women Entrepreneurs (pp. 139-44)
Tami Gurley-Calvez, Amelia Biehl and Katherine Harper |
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How Do Remittances Affect Human Capital Formation of School-Age Boys and Girls? (pp. 145-48)
Cynthia Bansak and Brian Chezum |
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The Impact of Unexpected Maternal Death on Education: First Evidence from Three National Administrative Data Links (pp. 149-53)
Stacey H. Chen, Yen-Chien Chen and Jin-Tan Liu |
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Motherhood Delay and the Human Capital of the Next Generation (pp. 154-58)
Amalia R. Miller |
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The Psychology of Food Consumption
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Strategies for Promoting Healthier Food Choices (pp. 159-64)
Julie S. Downs, George Loewenstein and Jessica Wisdom |
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Mindless Eating and Healthy Heuristics for the Irrational (pp. 165-69)
Brian Wansink, David R. Just and Collin R. Payne |
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Time Use and Food Consumption (pp. 170-76)
Marianne Bertrand and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach |
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Air Pollution and Health around the World
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Fetal Exposures to Toxic Releases and Infant Health (pp. 177-83)
Janet Currie and Johannes F. Schmieder |
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Winter Heating or Clean Air? Unintended Impacts of China's Huai River Policy (pp. 184-90)
Douglas Almond, Yuyu Chen, Michael Greenstone and Hongbin Li |
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Voluntary Compliance, Pollution Levels, and Infant Mortality in Mexico (pp. 191-97)
Andrew Foster, Emilio Gutierrez and Naresh Kumar |
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The Economic Impacts of Climate Change
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Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates (pp. 198-204)
Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken |
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Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand (pp. 205-10)
John Felkner, Kamilya Tazhibayeva and Robert Townsend |
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Climate Change and Birth Weight (pp. 211-17)
Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone and Jonathan Guryan |
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The Economics of Malaria
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Economic Effects of Childhood Exposure to Tropical Disease (pp. 218-23)
Hoyt Bleakley |
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What Matters (and What Does Not) in Households' Decision to Invest in Malaria Prevention? (pp. 224-30)
Pascaline Dupas |
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Commitment Mechanisms and Compliance with Health-Protecting Behavior: Preliminary Evidence from Orissa, India (pp. 231-35)
Alessandro Tarozzi, Aprajit Mahajan, Joanne Yoong and Brian Blackburn |
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Intrahousehold Allocation of Free and Purchased Mosquito Nets (pp. 236-41)
Vivian Hoffmann |
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Disease and Development: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives
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Urbanization, Mortality, and Fertility in Malthusian England (pp. 242-47)
Gregory Clark and Neil Cummins |
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Malthusian Dynamism and the Rise of Europe: Make War, Not Love (pp. 248-54)
Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth |
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How Relevant Is Malthus for Economic Development Today? (pp. 255-60)
David N. Weil and Joshua Wilde |
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Macroeconomic Narratives from Africa and the Diaspora
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Institutions versus Policies: A Tale of Two Islands (pp. 261-67)
Peter Blair Henry and Conrad Miller |
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Metals or Management? Explaining Africa's Recent Economic Growth Performance (pp. 268-74)
Laura N. Beny and Lisa D. Cook |
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South Africa's Post-apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands versus Macro Stability (pp. 275-81)
Brahima Coulibaly and Trevon D. Logan |
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Conflict and Development
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Defensive Weapons and Defensive Alliances (pp. 282-86)
Sylvain Chassang and Gerard Padro i Miquel |
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Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-conflict Liberia (pp. 287-91)
James D. Fearon, Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein |
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Repression or Civil War? (pp. 292-97)
Timothy Besley and Torsten Persson |
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Political Economy under Weak Institutions
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Do Juntas Lead to Personal Rule? (pp. 298-303)
Daron Acemoglu, Georgy Egorov and Konstantin Sonin |
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Consolidation of New Democracy, Mass Attitudes, and Clientelism (pp. 304-09)
Adi Brender and Allan Drazen |
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The Real Swing Voter's Curse (pp. 310-15)
James A. Robinson and Ragnar Torvik |
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Polls, Votes, and Elections
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Lies, Damn Lies, and Pre-election Polling (pp. 316-22)
Elias Walsh, Sarah Dolfin and John DiNardo |
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Racial Bias in the 2008 Presidential Election (pp. 323-29)
Alexandre Mas and Enrico Moretti |
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Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets (pp. 330-36)
David S. Lee and Enrico Moretti |
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Intellectual Property Rights and Economic Growth in the Long Run
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A Model of Discovery (pp. 337-42)
Michele Boldrin and David K. Levine |
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The Empirical Impact of Intellectual Property Rights on Innovation: Puzzles and Clues (pp. 343-48)
Josh Lerner |
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Intellectual Property Rights, the Industrial Revolution, and the Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth (pp. 349-55)
Joel Mokyr |
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New Empirical Approaches to Decision Making under Uncertainty
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Identifying Preferences under Risk from Discrete Choices (pp. 356-62)
Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Amit Gandhi, Bernard Salanie and Francois Salanie |
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Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation (pp. 363-68)
Miles S. Kimball, Claudia R. Sahm and Matthew D. Shapiro |
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Heterogeneity in the Response of Consumption to Income
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Endogenous Effective Discounting, Credit Constraints, and Wealth Inequality (pp. 369-73)
Jeremy Tobacman |
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Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending? (pp. 374-79)
Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod |
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The Effects of Population Aging on the Relationship among Aggregate Consumption, Saving, and Income (pp. 380-86)
Karen E. Dynan, Wendy Edelberg and Michael G. Palumbo |
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Disentangling Insurance and Information in Intertemporal Consumption Choices (pp. 387-92)
Katja Kaufmann and Luigi Pistaferri |
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Household Heterogeneity in Financial Markets
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Measuring the Financial Sophistication of Households (pp. 393-98)
Laurent E. Calvet, John Y. Campbell and Paolo Sodini |
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Who Bears Aggregate Fluctuations and How? (pp. 399-405)
Jonathan A. Parker and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen |
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Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model (pp. 406-11)
Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider |
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Rationality in the Consumer Credit Market
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Payday Loans and Credit Cards: New Liquidity and Credit Scoring Puzzles? (pp. 412-17)
Sumit Agarwal, Paige Marta Skiba and Jeremy Tobacman |
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What Do High-Interest Borrowers Do with Their Tax Rebate? (pp. 418-23)
Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse |
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What Do Consumers Really Pay on Their Checking and Credit Card Accounts? Explicit, Implicit, and Avoidable Costs (pp. 424-29)
Victor Stango and Jonathan Zinman |
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Online Advertising Markets
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Online Ad Auctions (pp. 430-34)
Hal R. Varian |
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The Quest for QWERTY (pp. 435-40)
Tanjim Hossain and John Morgan |
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Skewed Bidding in Pay-per-Action Auctions for Online Advertising (pp. 441-47)
Nikhil Agarwal, Susan Athey and David Yang |
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Beliefs and Disagreement in Organizations
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Authority versus Persuasion (pp. 448-53)
Eric Van den Steen |
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Financial Risk Management: When Does Independence Fail? (pp. 454-58)
Augustin Landier, David Sraer and David Thesmar |
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Over My Dead Body: Bargaining and the Price of Dignity (pp. 459-65)
Roland Benabou and Jean Tirole |
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International Aspects of Financial-Market Imperfections
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The Aftermath of Financial Crises (pp. 466-72)
Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff |
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Expropriation Dynamics (pp. 473-79)
Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador and Gita Gopinath |
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Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008 (pp. 480-86)
Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh and Alan M. Taylor |
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Trade, Product Turnover and Quality
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The Margins of US Trade (pp. 487-93)
Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding and Peter K. Schott |
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Trade Liberalization and New Imported Inputs (pp. 494-500)
Pinelopi Goldberg, Amit Khandelwal, Nina Pavcnik and Petia Topalova |
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Plants and Imported Inputs: New Facts and an Interpretation (pp. 501-07)
Maurice Kugler and Eric Verhoogen |
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Public Policies, Public Funding, and Their Impact
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Another Look at the Impacts of Health Reform in Massachusetts: Evidence Using New Data and a Stronger Model (pp. 508-11)
Sharon K. Long, Karen Stockley and Alshadye Yemane |
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Disability Screening and Labor Supply: Evidence from South Africa (pp. 512-16)
Sophie Mitra |
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A Theory of Brain Drain and Public Funding for Higher Education in the United States (pp. 517-21)
Felicia Ionescu and Linnea A. Polgreen |
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Public Policy and the Dynamics of Children's Health Insurance, 1986-1999 (pp. 522-26)
John C. Ham, Xianghong Li and Lara D. Shore-Sheppard |
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Pensions and Health Care: Fiscal Challenges for State and Local Governments
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How Should Public Pension Plans Invest? (pp. 527-32)
Deborah J. Lucas and Stephen P. Zeldes |
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Will Public Sector Retiree Health Benefit Plans Survive? Economic and Policy Implications of Unfunded Liabilities (pp. 533-37)
Robert L. Clark |
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Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities (pp. 538-42)
Jeffrey R. Brown and David W. Wilcox |
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The Revival of Fiscal Policy
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Implementing the New Fiscal Policy Activism (pp. 543-49)
Alan J. Auerbach |
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The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy (pp. 550-55)
John B. Taylor |
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Rethinking the Role of Fiscal Policy (pp. 556-59)
Martin Feldstein |
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Capital Market Frictions and Liquidity
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Capital Reallocation and Growth (pp. 560-66)
Janice Eberly and Neng Wang |
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Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007 (pp. 567-72)
Gary Gorton |
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Is Monetary Policy Effective during Financial Crises? (pp. 573-77)
Frederic S. Mishkin |
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Liquidity, Macroeconomics, and Asset Prices
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A Note on Liquidity Risk Management (pp. 578-83)
Markus K. Brunnermeier and Motohiro Yogo |
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Global Imbalances and Financial Fragility (pp. 584-88)
Ricardo J. Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy |
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Leverage and the Central Banker's Put (pp. 589-93)
Emmanuel Farhi and Jean Tirole |
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Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and Financial Crises
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Market and Public Liquidity (pp. 594-99)
Patrick Bolton, Tano Santos and Jose A. Scheinkman |
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Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy (pp. 600-605)
Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin |
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The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies (pp. 606-10)
Douglas W. Diamond and Raghuram G. Rajan |
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The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education
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The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report (pp. 611-18)
David Colander and KimMarie McGoldrick |
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The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment (pp. 618-20)
Catharine Hill |
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The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment (pp. 620-21)
David W. Breneman |
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The Economics Major as Part of a Liberal Education: The Teagle Report: Comment (pp. 621-23)
George Daly |
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Completing an Economics PhD in Five Years: Let the Data (Literally) Speak for Themselves
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Completing an Economics PhD in Five Years (pp. 624-29)
Wendy A. Stock, T. Aldrich Finegan and John J. Siegfried |
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Proceedings
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Minutes of the Annual Meeting
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Minutes of the Annual Meeting: San Francisco, CA, January 4, 2009 (pp. 631-32)
John J. Siegfried |
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Reports
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Report of the Secretary for 2008 (pp. 633-36)
John J. Siegfried |
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Report of the Treasurer (pp. 637-40)
John J. Siegfried |
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American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics (pp. 641-45)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried |
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List of Online Reports (pp. 646-46)
Charles E. Scott and John J. Siegfried |
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Minutes of the Executive Committee Meetings (pp. 647-59)
John J. Siegfried |
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Review (pp. 660-70)
Robert A. Moffitt |
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Literature (pp. 671-73)
Roger Gordon |
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Report of the Editor: Journal of Economic Perspectives (pp. 674-75)
Andrei Shleifer |
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics (pp. 676-78)
Esther Duflo |
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Economic Policy (pp. 679-80)
Alan J. Auerbach |
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (pp. 681-82)
Olivier Blanchard |
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Report of the Editor: American Economic Journal: Microeconomics (pp. 683-84)
Andrew Postlewaite |
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Report of the Director: Job Openings for Economists (pp. 685-87)
John J. Siegfried |
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Report of the Committee on Economic Education (pp. 688-91)
Michael Watts |
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Report of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession 2008 (pp. 692-99)
Barbara M. Fraumeni |
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Report of the Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (pp. 700-709)
Cecilia Rouse |
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Report of the Committee on Economic Statistics (page 710)
Katharine Abraham |
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AEJ: Macroeconomics: Search Committee Recommendation (page 711)
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