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Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and
Maurice Obstfeld. 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First."
,
4(1): 226-65.
Show Article Details
DOI: 10.1257/mac.4.1.226
Abstract:A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real
currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors
of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, G21, O19)
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Authors:
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (U CA, Berkeley)
Obstfeld, Maurice (U CA, Berkeley)
JEL Classifications:
E44: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F34: International Lending and Debt Problems
F44: International Business Cycles
G01: Financial Crises
G21: Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
O19: International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
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