The American Economic Review
Vol. 97, No. 2, May 2007
Contents
Editors' Introduction
Michelle DeBlasi and Ronald L. Oaxaca
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Foreword
Thomas J. Sargent
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Articles
Richard T. Ely Lecture
Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: Valuing Macroeconomic Risk
Lars Peter Hansen
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The Economics of Human Development
The Technology of Skill Formation
Flavio Cunha and James Heckman
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Model Validation and Model Comparison
Ex Ante Policy Evaluation, Structural Estimation and Model Selection
Kenneth I. Wolpin
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Testing the Mechanisms of Structural Models: The Case of the Mickey Mantle Effect
Hanming Fang, Michael Keane, Ahmed Khwaja, Martin Salm and Dan Silverman
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Link to Appendix
Bayesian Model Comparison and Validation
John Geweke
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Risk-Sharing and Cooperation in Social Networks
Reciprocity in Groups and the Limits to Social Capital
Francis Bloch, Garance Genicot and Debraj Ray
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Link to Appendix
Risk Sharing Across Communities
Yann Bramoullé and Rachel Kranton
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Risk Sharing and Network Formation
Marcel Fafchamps and Flore Gubert
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Community Size and Network Closure
Hunt Allcott, Dean Karlan, Markus M. Möbius, Tanya S. Rosenblat and Adam Szeidl
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Networked Interactions
Communication Networks: Knowledge and Decisions
Antoni Calvó-Armengol and Joan de Martí
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Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games
Matthew O. Jackson and Leeat Yariv
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Financial Networks
Douglas M. Gale and Shachar Kariv
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Link to Appendix
Social Insurance Programs: Good for Workers? Good for the Labor Market?
Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach
Dan A. Black, Jose Galdo and Jeffrey A. Smith
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Unemployment Benefits, Unemployment Duration, and Post-Unemployment Jobs: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
Rafael Lalive
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The Spike at Benefit Exhaustion: Leaving the Unemployment System or Starting a New Job?
David Card, Raj Chetty and Andrea Weber
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Distinguishing Income from Substitution Effects in Disability Insurance
David H. Autor and Mark G. Duggan
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Developments in Dynamic Mechanism Design
An Ascending Auction for Interdependent Values: Uniqueness and Robustness to Strategic Uncertainty
Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris
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Link to Appendix
Designing Efficient Mechanisms for Dynamic Bilateral Trading Games
Susan Athey and Ilya Segal
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Link to Appendix
On Quitting Rights in Mechanism Design
Olivier Compte and Philippe Jehiel
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Decision Theory: New Methods, New Insights
Neuroeconomic Studies of Impulsivity: Now or Just as Soon as Possible?
Paul William Glimcher, Joseph Kable and Kenway Louie
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The Neuroeconomic Theory of Learning
Andrew Caplin and Mark Dean
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Revealing Preferences Graphically: An Old Method Gets a New Tool Kit
Syngjoo Choi, Raymond Fisman, Douglas M. Gale and Shachar Kariv
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Link to Appendix
Beliefs in the Utility Function
Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Christian Gollier and Jonathan A. Parker
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Link to Appendix
Experimental Testing of Intrinsic Preferences for NonInstrumental Information
Kfir Eliaz and Andrew Schotter
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Guilt in Games
Pierpaolo Battigalli and Martin Dufwenberg
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Contracts and Fairness
Adding a Stick to the Carrot? The Interaction of Bonuses and Fines
Ernst Fehr and Klaus M. Schmidt
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Link to Data Set
Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New thoughts
Oliver Hart and John Moore
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Can Contract Theory Explain Social Preferences?
W. Bentley MacLeod
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Search-and-Matching Financial Markets
Liquidity and Risk Management
Nicolae Gârleanu and Lasse Heje Pedersen
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Link to Appendix
Search in Asset Markets: Market Structure, Liquidity, and Welfare
Ricardo Lagos and Guillaume Rocheteau
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Information Percolation in Large Markets
Darrell Duffie and Gustavo Manso
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Capital Market Frictions
Market Maker Inventories and Stock Prices
Terrence Hendershott and Mark S. Seasholes
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Slow Moving Capital
Mark Mitchell, Lasse Heje Pedersen and Todd Pulvino
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Systemic Illiquidity in the Federal Funds Market
Adam B. Ashcraft and Darrell Duffie
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Habit Persistence and the Macroeconomy
Increasing Income Inequality, External Habits, and Self-Reported Happiness
Karen E. Dynan and Enrichetta Ravina
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Link to Appendix
Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price
Morten O. Ravn, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe
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Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model
Harald Uhlig
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Inaction and Adjustment: Consequences for Households and Firms
Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market
Andrew B. Abel, Janice C. Eberly and Stavros Panageas
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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D
Nick Bloom
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Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service
Suresh Sundaresan and Neng Wang
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Monetary Systems: Transitions and Experiments
The Bank of Amsterdam and the Leap to Central Bank Money
Stephen Quinn and William Roberds
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Backing, the Quantity Theory, and the Transition to the US Dollar, 1723–1850
Peter L. Rousseau
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The Political Economy of the US Monetary Union: The Civil War Era as a Watershed
David F. Weiman and John A. James
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John Law's System
François R. Velde
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Wars, Finance, and War Finance
The Net Worth of the US Federal Government, 1784–1802
Farley Grubb
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Link to Data Set
The Great Financial Crisis of 1914: What Can We Learn from Aldrich–Vreeland Emergency Currency?
William L. Silber
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The McKenna Rule and UK World War I Finance
James M. Nason and Shaun P. Vahey
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How Occupied France Financed Its Own Exploitation in World War II
Filippo Occhino, Kim Oosterlinck and Eugene N. White
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The Transparency of Political Institutions
The Perils of Transparency in Bureaucracies
Alessandro Gavazza and Alessandro Lizzeri
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Decision–Making Procedures for Committees of Careerist Experts
Gilat Levy
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The Transparency of Politics and the Quality of Politicians
Andrea Mattozzi and Antonio Merlo
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Is Foreign Aid Helping?
Aid Effectiveness – Opening the Black Box
François Bourguignon and Mark Sundberg
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Does Aid Affect Governance?
Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Subramanian
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Was Development Assistance a Mistake?
William Easterly
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Exchange Rate Puzzles
The Returns to Currency Speculation in Emerging Markets
Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum and Sergio Rebelo
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If Exchange Rates are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy is Wrong
Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson and Patrick J. Kehoe
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Link to Additional Materials
Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
Philippe Bacchetta and Eric van Wincoop
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New Approaches to International Trade
Unbalanced Trade
Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton and Samuel Kortum
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Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms
Fabio Ghironi and Marc J. Melitz
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Link to Additional Materials
Pricing-to-Market in a Ricardian Model of International Trade
Andrew Atkeson and Ariel Burstein
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Globalization and Economic Outcomes for Minority Groups
The Effect of Globalization on the Performance of Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the United States: Does Owners' Race/Ethnicity Matter?
Elizabeth Asiedu and James A. Freeman
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The Effects of Recent Immigration on Racial/Ethnic Labor Market Differentials
Deborah Reed and Sheldon Danziger
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Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Racial Employment Patterns in US Manufacturing
Abera Gelan, Kaye Husbands Fealing and James Peoples
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Differential Impacts of Immigrants on Native Black and White Workers
Paul Ong and Don Mar
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Growth, Education, and Investment in Children
Nonlinearities and Robustness in Growth Regressions
Jenny Minier
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Public Education Expenditures, Taxation, and Growth: Linking Data to Theory
William F. Blankenau, Nicole B. Simpson and Marc Tomljanovich
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Why Do Poor Children Lose Health Insurance in the SCHIP Era? The Role of Family Health
Anne Carroll, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan and Nancy E. Reichman
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Link to Appendix
The Effect of Child Gender on Parents' Labor Supply: An Examination of Natives, Immigrants, and their Children
Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia and Jennifer Ward-Batts
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Gender and Labor Market Outcomes
Reaching Equilibrium in the Market for Obstetricians and Gynecologists
Jessica Wolpaw Reyes
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Gender Differences in the Labor Market: Impact of IRCA
Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Cynthia Bansak and Steven Raphael
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The Role of Labor Market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials
Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts
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Women Helping Women, Men Helping Women? Same-Gender Mentoring, Initial Job Placements, and Early Career Publishing Success for Economics PhDs
Christiana Hilmer and Michael Hilmer
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Medical Innovation and the Social Value of Health Progress
Integrated Insurance Design in the Presence of Multiple Medical Technologies
Dana Goldman and Tomas J. Philipson
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Social Value and the Speed of Innovation
Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel
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The Impact of New Drugs on US Longevity and Medical Expenditure, 1990–2003: Evidence from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data
Frank R. Lichtenberg
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Empirical Industrial Organization
Identification and Estimation of Bidders' Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions
Isabelle Perrigne and Quang Vuong
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An Estimate Dynamic Model of Entry, Exit, and Growth in Oligopoly Retail Markets
Victor Aguirregabiria, Pedro Mira and Hernan Roman
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Bounding Revenue Comparisons across Multi-Unit Auction Formats under ε-Best Response
James T. E. Chapman, David McAdams and Harry J. Paarsch
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Linear Regression Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Nonparametric Distributions of Random Coefficients
Patrick Bajari, Jeremy T. Fox and Stephen P. Ryan
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Behavioral Welfare Economics
Toward Choice-Theoretic Foundations for Behavioral Welfare Economics
B. Douglas Bernheim and Antonio Rangel
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Welfare without Happiness
Faruk Gul and Wolfgang Pesendorfer
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Mistakes in Choice-Based Welfare Analysis
Botond Kőszegi and Matthew Rabin
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Biological Evolution and Economics
Some Evolutionary Economics of Family Partnerships
Theodore C. Bergstrom
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Habits, Peers, and Happiness: An Evolutionary Perspective
Luis Rayo and Gary S. Becker
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Why do We Die? Economics, Biology and Aging
Arthur J. Robson and Hillard S. Kaplan
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Link to Appendix
The Evolution of Intertemporal Preferences
Arthur J. Robson and Larry Samuelson
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The Market and Pre-Market for Graduate Students in Economics
Is There An Insider Advantage in Getting Tenure?
Paul Oyer
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The Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity
Wayne A. Grove and Stephen Wu
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What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes
Susan Athey, Lawrence F. Katz, Alan B. Krueger, Steven Levitt and James Poterba
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Awards
John Bates Clark Award
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Reports
Minutes of the Annual Meeting
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Minutes of the Executive Committee Meetings
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Secretary
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Treasurer
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Editor, American Economic Review
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Editor, Journal of Economic Literature
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Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives
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Director, Job Openings for Economists
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Committee on Economic Education
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Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession
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Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession
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Committee on Economic Statistics
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Representative to the International Economic Association
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
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Search Committee for the Editor, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
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Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics
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