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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol. 5 No. 3 (July 2013)

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Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009

Article Citation

Bussière, Matthieu, Giovanni Callegari, Fabio Ghironi, Giulia Sestieri, and Norihiko Yamano. 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(3): 118-51.

DOI: 10.1257/mac.5.3.118

Abstract

This paper introduces a new empirical model of international trade flows based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the relatively larger movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-2009 Great Trade Collapse.

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Authors

Bussière, Matthieu (Bank of France)
Callegari, Giovanni (European Central Bank)
Ghironi, Fabio (Boston College and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
Sestieri, Giulia (Bank of France)
Yamano, Norihiko (OECD)

JEL Classifications

E23: Macroeconomics: Production
F14: Empirical Studies of Trade
F17: Trade: Forecasting and Simulation
F44: International Business Cycles
G01: Financial Crises

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