This setting lets you change the way you view articles. You can choose to have articles open in a dialog window, a new tab, or directly in the same window.
Open in Dialog
Open in New Tab
Open in same window

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol. 3 No. 1 (January 2011)

Expand

Quick Tools:

Print Article Summary
Export Citation
Sign up for Email Alerts Follow us on Twitter Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AEJ: Macro - All Issues

AEJ: Macro Forthcoming Articles

Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP

Article Citation

Krane, Spencer D. 2011. "Professional Forecasters' View of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3(1): 184-211.

DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.1.184

Abstract

This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness. (JEL C51, C53, E23, E27, E32, E37)

Article Full-Text Access

Full-text Article

Additional Materials

Download Data Set (87.85 KB)

Authors

Krane, Spencer D. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

JEL Classifications

C51: Model Construction and Estimation
C53: Forecasting Methods; Simulation Methods
E23: Macroeconomics: Production
E27: Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37: Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

Comments

View Comments on This Article (0) | Login to post a comment


American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics


Quick Tools:

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AEJ: Macro - All Issues

AEJ: Macro - Forthcoming Articles

Virtual Field Journals


AEA Member Login:


AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us