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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol. 1 No. 1 (January 2009)
AEJ: Macro Volume. 1, Issue 1 | 
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AEJ: Macro Forthcoming Articles
The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
Article Citation
Elsby, Michael W. L.,
Ryan Michaels, and
Gary Solon. 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment."
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
1(1): 84-110.
DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.84
DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.84
Abstract
A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to
treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged
by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment
spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting
for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature
going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change
decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize
rising unemployment in each postwar recession. We conclude that a
complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation
of countercyclical inflow rates, especially for job losers (layoffs),
as well as procyclical outflow rates. (JEL E24, E32)
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Authors
Elsby, Michael W. L. (U MI)
Michaels, Ryan (U MI)
Solon, Gary (MI State U)
Michaels, Ryan (U MI)
Solon, Gary (MI State U)
JEL Classifications
E24: Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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