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American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics: Vol. 1 No. 1 (January 2009)

AEJ: Macro Volume. 1, Issue 1 | Previous ArticleNext Article

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Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution

Article Citation

Lucas, Robert E. 2009. "Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 1(1): 1-25.

DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.1

Abstract

This paper proposes a model to describe the evolution of real gross domestic product (GDP) in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The parameters of the model are calibrated using evidence from Sachs and Warner on economies classed as open, from Parente and Prescott on economies that have successfully begun to develop, and from Kuznets and the World Bank on the employment share of agriculture in various times and places. The theory predicts convergence of the income levels and growth rates in the open economies and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics. (JEL F41, O33, O47)

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Authors

Lucas, Robert E. (Chicago, IL)

JEL Classifications

F41: Open Economy Macroeconomics
O33: Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O47: Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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