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Journal of Economic Perspectives: Vol. 22 No. 3 (Summer 2008)
JEP Volume. 22, Issue 3 | 
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Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling
Article Citation
Gilboa, Itzhak,
Andrew W. Postlewaite, and
David Schmeidler. 2008. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling."
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
22(3): 173-88.
DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.3.173
DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.3.173
Abstract
Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the
probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.
Article Full-Text Access
Full-text Article (Complimentary)
Authors
Gilboa, Itzhak (Tel-Aviv U and HEC)
Postlewaite, Andrew W. (U PA)
Schmeidler, David (Tel-Aviv U and OH State U)
Postlewaite, Andrew W. (U PA)
Schmeidler, David (Tel-Aviv U and OH State U)
JEL Classifications
D81: Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
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