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American Economic Review: Vol. 98 No. 4 (September 2008)

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The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict

Article Citation

Jaeger, David A., and M. Daniele Paserman. 2008. "The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict." American Economic Review, 98(4): 1591-1604.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.4.1591

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict during the Second Intifada. Using data on the daily number of fatalities between September 2000 and January 2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of Granger causality from Palestinian to Israeli violence, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent using either the incidence or level of fatalities and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the level of time aggregation. We find no evidence that the Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in a predictable "tit-for-tat" cycle of violence. (JEL D74, H56, O17)

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Authors

Jaeger, David A. (Graduate Center, CUNY and U Bonn)
Paserman, M. Daniele (Boston U and Hebrew U Jerusalem)

JEL Classifications

D74: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
H56: National Security and War
O17: Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements


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