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American Economic Review: Vol. 104 No. 1 (January 2014)

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One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects

Article Citation

Maniadis, Zacharias, Fabio Tufano, and John A. List. 2014. "One Swallow Doesn't Make a Summer: New Evidence on Anchoring Effects." American Economic Review, 104(1): 277-90.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.1.277

Abstract

Some researchers have argued that anchoring in economic valuations casts doubt on the assumption of consistent and stable preferences. We present new evidence that explores the strength of certain anchoring results. We then present a theoretical framework that provides insights into why we should be cautious of initial empirical findings in general. The model importantly highlights that the rate of false positives depends not only on the observed significance level, but also on statistical power, research priors, and the number of scholars exploring the question. Importantly, a few independent replications dramatically increase the chances that the original finding is true.

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Additional Materials

Online Appendix (298.23 KB) | Download Data Set (1.77 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (470.49 KB)

Authors

Maniadis, Zacharias (U Southampton)
Tufano, Fabio (U Nottingham)
List, John A. (U Chicago)

JEL Classifications

C91: Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual
D12: Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis


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