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American Economic Review: Vol. 102 No. 2 (April 2012)

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Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

Article Citation

Besley, Timothy, and Hannes Mueller. 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland." American Economic Review, 102(2): 810-33.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.2.810

Abstract

This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes. (JEL D74, R23, R31)

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Authors

Besley, Timothy (London School of Economics and CIFAR)
Mueller, Hannes (Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and U Autonoma de Barcelona)

JEL Classifications

D74: Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
R23: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
R31: Housing Supply and Markets


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