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American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 5 (August 2011)

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From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis

Article Citation

Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis." American Economic Review, 101(5): 1676-1706.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.5.1676

Abstract

Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both "world" aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments have "hidden domestic debts" that exceed the better documented levels of external debt. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, H63, N20)

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Authors

Reinhart, Carmen M. (Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC)
Rogoff, Kenneth S. (Harvard U)

JEL Classifications

E44: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F34: International Lending and Debt Problems
F44: International Business Cycles
G01: Financial Crises
H63: National Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
N20: Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative


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