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American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 3 (May 2011)

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Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa

Article Citation

Aly, Hassan Y., and Mark C. Strazicich. 2011. "Global Financial Crisis and Africa: Is the Impact Permanent or Transitory? Time Series Evidence from North Africa." American Economic Review, 101(3): 577-81.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.3.577

Abstract

We utilize time series tests with structural breaks to test for an adverse impact on economic growth rates in North Africa associated with the recent US financial crisis and global recession. One or two breaks are identified for each country, except for Morocco where no break is found, while breaks coincide with the 2008 financial crisis in only two of the six countries (Libya and Mauritania). These findings suggest that, in general, shocks from the recent financial crisis have only temporary effects on economic growth in these countries. Impulse response functions with breaks confirm these results. We conclude by suggesting explanations for these findings.

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Authors

Aly, Hassan Y. (OH State U and African Development Bank)
Strazicich, Mark C. (Appalachian State U)

JEL Classifications

E32: Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F44: International Business Cycles
G01: Financial Crises
O11: Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O16: Economic Development: Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
O47: Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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