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American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 3 (May 2011)


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Predicting and Preventing Shootings among At-Risk Youth

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Chandler, Dana, Steven D. Levitt, and John A. List. 2011. "Predicting and Preventing Shootings among At-Risk Youth." American Economic Review, 101(3): 288-92.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.3.288


Each year, more than 250 students in the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) are shot. The authors of this paper worked with the leadership of CPS to build a predictive model of shootings that helped determine which students would be included in a highly targeted and resource intensive mentorship program. This paper describes our predictive model and offers a preliminary evaluation of the mentoring intervention performed by Youth Advocate Programs, Inc. (YAP). We find little evidence that the intervention reduces school misconducts or improves educational outcomes. The scale of intervention was too small to generate meaningful findings on shootings.

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Chandler, Dana (MIT)
Levitt, Steven D. (U Chicago)
List, John A. (U Chicago)

JEL Classifications

H76: State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories
J13: Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
K42: Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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