Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys
Anderson, Soren T.,
James M. Sallee, and
Richard T. Curtin. 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys."
American Economic Review,
This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.
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Anderson, Soren T. (MI State U)
Kellogg, Ryan (U MI)
Sallee, James M. (U Chicago)
Curtin, Richard T. (Institute for Social Research, U MI)
C53: Forecasting Methods; Simulation Methods
D12: Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
L71: Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply
Q47: Energy Forecasting