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American Economic Review: Vol. 101 No. 3 (May 2011)

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Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys

Article Citation

Anderson, Soren T., Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee, and Richard T. Curtin. 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys." American Economic Review, 101(3): 110-14.

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.3.110

Abstract

This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.

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Authors

Anderson, Soren T. (MI State U)
Kellogg, Ryan (U MI)
Sallee, James M. (U Chicago)
Curtin, Richard T. (Institute for Social Research, U MI)

JEL Classifications

C53: Forecasting Methods; Simulation Methods
D12: Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
L71: Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply
Q47: Energy Forecasting


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